Weekend Update: Spring in January

Good evening everybody. Well, we hit 81°F for the second day in a row here in Austin, yesterday's high of 81°F tied the record high set back in 1971. Keep in mind, the normal high for this time of year is in the lower 60s. Our low this morning of 62°F is more in line with where high temperatures should be for this time of year. We are running some 20 degrees above normal for both highs and lows for this time of year. North Texas was in the upper 40s this afternoon and south Texas soared well into the 80s. Cold front has stalled out just south of Waco.

5 p.m. temperatures across the state:

That cool front will slide through central Texas overnight, allowing for winds to turn northerly for a while before quickly returning to southerly for Saturday afternoon. The northerly breezes tonight will allow for temps to dip into the 50s...quick return to southerly winds will keep highs in the 70s this weekend. While it is going to be a warm weekend, it is not going to be a bright weekend. Clouds will fill in late tonight and stick around through early next week. Don't be surprised to see some drizzle and fog across the area over the weekend. Temps will soar to near 80°F again for Monday and Tuesday ahead of a fast-moving storm system that will introduce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday. Behind this disturbance, our next cold front will arrive and take highs and lows back down to normal for this time of year for the middle to end of next week with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

Forecast models are forecasting a big dip in the jet stream on Tuesday of next, that will bring us a shot at some rain on Tuesday as well as a cool down for the middle and end of next week. Unfortunately, we will be on the southern edge of this disturbance, therefore, rain chances will be slim. 

An isolated strong storm cannot be ruled out on Tuesday as instability will be quite high over central and east Texas. The only problem is, the atmosphere may be capped, meaning, a layer of warm, dry air in the upper levels of the atmosphere may inhibit thunderstorm development. Remember, storms like air to cool with height, however, if a storm can break through that cap in the atmosphere, it could become severe quickly with damaging wind and hail. 

We will definitely have plenty of moisture at the surface and aloft for thunderstorms to develop.

Long range forecast models are not indicating any Arctic Air for Texas over the next week and beyond.