Severe Weather Possible Tuesday

Hello everybody. I hope all of you are having a fantastic and relaxing weekend. Not knowing that it is the end of January, somebody might confuse today's weather with April. It is very spring-like out there today with very warm, humid, and windy conditions in place. We officially topped out at 81ºF this afternoon at Camp Mabry and 80ºF out at the airport. An approaching storm system and its associated cold front out west are allowing for the strong southerly winds across the area. Those winds are carrying plentiful amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture into the state of Texas.

Sunday Morning:

Sunday Afternoon:

On Monday, look for a cloudy, dreary and humid start to the day with temperatures in the 60s area wide; areas of drizzle and light rain will be possible. Skies will turn partly sunny by afternoon, allowing for temps to soar into the upper 70s to lower 80s area wide. Believe it or not, Laredo may hit 90°F on Monday! Crazy! Isolated light rain showers will be possible through the afternoon hours.

Tuesday will start off just the same as Monday with low clouds and drizzle; Tuesday afternoon, skies will turn partly sunny, allowing for temps to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s...keep in mind, winds will be quite gusty out of the south on Monday and Tuesday between 15-25 mph.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed north, east, and central Texas under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather...best chances for severe weather here in central Texas will be for areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. YELLOW=SLIGHT RISK GREEN=General Storms 

Weather Set Up:

The polar jet stream will be taking a dip way south over the coming days...we call this a trough of low pressure (an elongated area of low pressure in the atmosphere) which is conducive to the development of showers and thunderstorms given the right ingredients.

As a surface low and its associated cold front move across the state on Tuesday afternoon/evening I'm expecting a line of strong thunderstorms to develop. Some of the storms will turn severe and be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Another factor to play close attention to, is that individual storms may develop out ahead of the main line. Those storms that develop ahead of the line may be capable of producing a tornado or two; especially across north and northeastern Texas.

Here's what models are forecasting. The latest high resolution NAM model is forecasting a strong line of storms to develop (stretching from north Texas down into central Texas) for Tuesday afternoon/evening:

Forecasted Temps 3 p.m. Tuesday afternoon: South Texas will be well into the 80s and lower 90s!! Very warm and unstable.

Forecasted radar 3 p.m. Tuesday afternoon: Line of storms beginning to develop west of central Texas

Forecasted radar 6 p.m. Tuesday evening: Strong line of storms just pushed east of the I-35 corridor

Forecasted radar 9 p.m. Tuesday evening: Strong line of storms pushing through east and southeast TX

How much rain are we talking? Generally, 0.30 inches or less across the Hill Country with 0.50 to 1 inch of rain possible for areas along and east of Interstate 35...the showers and storms will be moving quickly, therefore, they will not have time to drop significant rainfall.

More like a spring-time storm set-up than late January. Instability levels will be very high for this time of year; meaning, air will be rising at a very fast rate...remember, you need rising air for thunderstorms to develop. Higher CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values indicate a greater risk for severe weather. Please be alert for rapidly changing weather conditions late Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening.

Latest Seven Day Forecast: Cooler and drier conditions will move in behind the storms (Tuesday is highlighted in red, because we will be under the risk for severe weather)