Arctic Blast Possible Next Week!!!

Hope you all are not tired of the cold weather! Long range forecast models have persistently been forecasting a major Arctic Air outbreak for the Midwest and eastern United States for next week! Minneapolis may not get above 0°F for highs early next week with lows in the -10s (negative teens) possible. Chicago's highs will drop into the single digits and lower 10s with overnight lows dropping to -5 to 1°F!!! Keep in mind, those numbers are not including wind chills that may drop as low as 30 degrees below zero across extreme northern portions of the U.S.

So, what does this mean for Texas? To be quite honest, I'm not very positive on next week's forecast. Two of the main forecast models that I look at, the GFS (American Model) and the ECMWF (European Model) are forecasting two different scenarios for Texas. Both of the models bring a cold front through Central Texas on Monday of next week; the difference is that the ECMWF model wants to bring a blast of Arctic Air into Texas while the GFS wants to bring just some normal cold weather (not Arctic in nature). Forecast models tend to struggle with Arctic Air, many times showing the bulk of it missing Texas to the east while in reality the cold air pours into Texas as well. This possible Arctic front for early next week could have the potential to take highs down into the 30s with overnight lows dropping into 20s.

ECMWF Model Snapshot for Monday, January 21, 2013: (Check out that blob of frigid air covering much of the northern U.S.) Reds and purples indicate temperatures well below zero)

ECMWF Model Snapshot for Tuesday, January 22, 2013 (Shows the bulk of the really cold air pushing east, however, the blues over Texas still indicate temps near freezing, if not below)

Another KEY ingredient in forecasting an arctic air outbreak is upper level wind patterns. A strong ridge of high pressure will develop across the western U.S. over the coming days. If the high is farther west, we have a better chance to see the arctic air to pour into Texas. If the high is farther east, it will push the arctic air farther east.

GFS 500mb map valid Tuesday, January 22, 2013:

If you have friends/family in the northern plains or the eastern United States, make sure to reach out and let them know that some BIG changes are coming!