Strong Storms and Heavy Rainfall Possible Next Week

I'm tracking a strong Pacific Storm System (also known as a Mid-Latitude Cyclone) currently located south of Alaska that will be arriving here in Texas by Tuesday of next week. As this system approaches our area, winds will crank up out of the south on Monday and Tuesday allowing for warmer and more moist Gulf air to intrude into the area at the lower levels and Pacific moisture to intrude into the upper levels of the atmosphere over Texas. The warmer temperatures, more moist conditions, and the lift provided by this storm system and its associated frontal boundary will likely kick off a round of strong, possibly severe storms Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning. Two of the more reliable models I look at, the GFS and the ECMWF are both forecasting over an inch of rain to fall across a good chunk of south central and north central Texas...let's take a more in-depth look at all of the various model forecasts.

***As of right now, the main threats from storms would likely be heavy rainfall, lightning, gusty winds, and small to medium sized hail...however, an isolated tornado can never be ruled out. Of course as we get closer to the actual event I will have a much better idea on what is going to occur***

The GFS High Resolution Convective Cloud Predictor (Thunderstorm cloud detector) shows a line of storms approaching central Texas from the west next Tuesday:

Current position of the storm system:

Forecast Position of the Upper Level Low by the GFS Model on Tuesday of next week:

Midnight:

6 AM:

Noon:

Forecast Position of the Upper Level Low by the ECMWF Model on Tuesday of next week (keep in mind, the ECMWF is forecasting a slower solution): The ECMWF model doesn't want to bring in the heavies precipitation until the first half of the day on Wednesday.

6 AM:

6 AM WEDNESDAY:

Rainfall Projections by the GFS Model: Widespread 0.50 to 1.80 inches of rain

Rainfall Projections by the ECMWF Model: Widespread 1-3 inches of rain

Rainfall Projections by the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center: 0.75 to 2 inches of rain (Heaviest amounts along and east of Interstate 35):

Why would all of this rain be a blessing? Because we are in a drought! Check out the latest drought monitor for the state of Texas. All of Central Texas is in a severe drought...areas between Dallas and Austin are in extreme to exceptional drought conditions as is areas west of the Hill Country towards Del Rio and areas in deep south Texas...those are the two worst drought categories possible. 

Only 3% of the state of Texas is NOT in drought