Wednesday, December 28, 2016

Windy Cold Front

Forecast Discussion
Hello folks! Well, we did it again. We set two brand new record highs today in Austin at both Camp Mabry and the airport. The mercury soared to a record-smashing 83ºF at Camp Mabry beating the previous record high for this date of 77ºF last set in 1946. The mercury soared to a record-breaking 85ºF along the west runway at Austin Bergstrom International Airport beating their previous record high for this date of 77ºF last set in 1984. Breezy southwesterly winds helped temperatures soar today.


Cooler & Windy Thursday
A cold front is pushing through north and northwest Texas right now and will arrive in Austin overnight tonight. Cooler and WINDY conditions will settle in behind the front. Highs on Thursday are expected to be some 20-25 degrees cooler across the area in the upper 50s/lower to middle 60s. While temperatures will be significantly cooler, the windy weather this front is going to bring in its wake will be the big story. Sustained north northwest winds between 15-25 mph will be possible with gusts at time topping 35-40 mph. It is not going to be a good day for allergy sufferers.

Thursday Night & Friday
Lows drop into the 30s/40s Thursday night...freezing temperatures are not expected, but it will feel quite chilly (more like late December). Highs only rebound into the mid to upper 50s on Friday under a mainly cloudy sky as southerly winds override the cooler air at the surface as the southern branch of the jet stream becomes more active over the area.

Weekend/Next Week
Above normal temperatures quickly return for the New Year's Eve and New Year's Day with highs rebounding into the upper 60s/lower 70s across the area. Some spotty light rain will be possible during the day Saturday, but where it occurs it should not amount to much. Mid to upper 70s return by Monday and Tuesday of next week ahead of what looks to be our next Arctic cold front the middle of next week. More to come on that in future posts, but it looks like a much colder weather pattern will be developing across a large portion of the country. See the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 Day Temperature outlook below (valid January 3-7, 2016)

 

Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Unusual Warmth

Forecast Discussion
It goes without saying that it has been an unusually warm past several days across the area. Highs climbed into the upper 70s Christmas Eve, 80°F on Christmas Day, and a record-shattering 84°F yesterday. Check out the high temperature trend chart below. It's hard to believe a week ago we were coming off the heels of an Arctic Blast. That's winter in Texas for you!


Fog, Drizzle Possible Tonight
Despite the passage of a weak "cold" front early this morning, temperatures have still managed to climb into the 70s area wide. The front is washing out to our south and will return north as a warm front tonight, allowing moist southerly flow to return to the area. Widespread clouds, fog, and drizzle likely late tonight into Wednesday morning with mild overnight lows in the 60s. Some areas of dense fog may develop.

Thursday Cold Front
A stronger cold front is set to move through the region early Thursday morning, bringing with it gusty north winds and COOLER temperatures in its wake. Highs on Thursday behind the front should only manage the upper 50s in the coolest locations (northern/western zones) and low to mid 60s in the warmest locations (central/southern/eastern zones). Wind gusts of 25-35 mph will likely stir up the cedar pollen across the area resulting in a bad day for allergy sufferers. Temperatures drop into the 30s/40s Thursday night into Friday morning under a partly clear sky...freezing temperatures are NOT expected. Other than some drizzle or very light rain, the front is expected to move through the area without rain.




Friday, December 23, 2016

Spring-like Christmas

Forecast Discussion
Hello folks! I hope you all are fans of cloudy, intermittently wet, and balmy conditions because that’s the pattern we are going to be stuck in for the next 5-7 days. Temperatures will be climbing well above average for this time of year thanks to a warm, moist southerly wind flow off of the Gulf of Mexico. Average high/low for this time of year in Austin is 63°F/42°F.

As of 3 p.m. Friday afternoon, temperatures have climbed into the 60s and even lower 70s in a few spots that have received a bit more in the way of sunshine. Southerly winds will continue to increase over the coming days in response to a storm system digging south across the western half of the nation. This storm system will graze the area Christmas Day (Sunday) into Monday and may help to generate some slightly higher rainfall opportunities across the area, especially as a weak frontal boundary stalls near central Texas.

Highs will rebound into the 70s area wide Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with overnight lows staying quite mild in the 60s (that’s where high temperatures should be for this time of year).
While rainfall chances will be in the forecast for the next 5-7 days, the rain that occurs will not be heavy and/or significant. The Weather Prediction Center’s 1-7 Day Accumulated Rainfall Graphic depicts anywhere from a quarter of an inch to as much as an inch of rain to fall across the area between now and New Year’s Eve.


The Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service Forecast Office released some interesting statistics yesterday,
High temperatures on Christmas for Austin, TX are closer to 80°F than 32°F 60% of the time (1900-2015)
High temperatures on Christmas for San Antonio, TX are closer to 80°F than 32°F 76% of the time (1900-2015)

Colder Weather Possible around New Year’s Eve/Day
Long range forecast models are indicating a return of winter temperatures just in time for New Year’s Eve festivities. I will continue to monitor this trend for forecast model consistency. Remember, despite the spring-like temperatures over the next week, it is still winter.

Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to all!



Friday, December 16, 2016

Polar Plunge

Forecast Discussion:
The much advertised Arctic cold front is a little over 24 hours away from arriving in Austin. A warm front has surged north all the way into Oklahoma and has opened the door for mild and muggy Gulf Air to return as evidenced by temperatures in the 60s/70s area wide (as of 4 p.m. CST Friday) and dew points in the 50s/60s. Areas north and west of Austin that have not been trapped under the clouds all day have warmed into the 70s and even 80s across a large portion of west Texas and southwestern Oklahoma thanks to a strong down sloping southerly wind feeding into an area of surface low pressure over western Kansas and eastern Colorado that has developed in response to a strong storm system currently digging south over the western United States.

As the upper level storm system currently out west continues to track east, it will nudge the surface low over Kansas to the east and open the door for the Arctic cold front to come plunging south into Texas.

Saturday Evening Arctic Front: Front arrives between 7-11 p.m. CST
Folks, this cold front means business! It will be bringing a 50+ degree drop in temperatures within a 12 hour time period. It will bring a near instant 15-20 degree drop in temperatures once it passes your location. You will know when it arrives as winds will turn sharply out of the north and gust between 25-35 mph. Those gusty winds will stay in place through the night Saturday and into the day on Sunday before relaxing by Sunday evening.

NAM 4 km Model Forecast Temperature Map: 9:00 p.m. CST Saturday (you don't have to know about weather to find this cold front!)


Forecast Breakdown:
Tonight: 60s | mostly cloudy & mild with patchy areas of fog and/or drizzle
Wind: SSW 5-15 mph

Saturday: 80°F | partly sunny and breezy with near record warmth
Wind: SSW 10-15 mph

Saturday Night: 27°F | Arctic cold front arrives with gusty north winds & rapidly falling temperatures. Wind chills drop into the teens by Sunday morning! Protect exposed pipes and plants.
Wind: N 15-25 mph G 30-35 mph

Sunday: 38°F | Mostly sunny, COLD, and windy (wind chills in the teens and 20s all day)
Wind: N 10-20 mph G 25-30 mph

Sunday Night: 24°F | Mostly clear & VERY COLD, area-wide hard freeze. Protect exposed pipes and plants. Upper teens in low-lying, out-lying locations.
Wind: N 10-15 mph

Monday: 42°F | Mostly sunny & cold; less windy
Wind: N 10-15 mph

Monday Night: 29°F | Mostly cloudy and cold, another freeze likely
Wind: NNE 5 mph

Tuesday, December 13, 2016

Ups and Downs

Forecast Discussion:
As of the noon update, the temperature in Austin at both Camp Mabry and the airport has soared to 73°F...a significantly colder air mass is sitting just to our north as evidenced by temperatures in the 40s and 50s from Waco north. That cooler air mass will slowly continue to sag south into our area this afternoon into the overnight hours allowing temperatures to drop back down into the 40s/50s tonight under partly clear skies.

Noon Surface Temperature Analysis:
Highs on Wednesday will be COOLER than today in the 60s ahead of another surge of cool air that will arrive late Wednesday night into early Thursday and allow for highs to drop even further on Thursday into the 50s under a mostly cloudy sky. Some light rain will be possible Thursday afternoon into early Friday, but the rain will not be significant and not accumulate to much.

Warm front surges north through the area on Friday in response to a strong storm system crossing the center of the country that will open the door for a strong Arctic cold front to blast through the area late Saturday. Highs ahead of the Arctic Front on Friday and Saturday will climb into the 70s on breezy/gusty southerly winds. There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the Arctic Front Saturday afternoon/evening (especially for areas along and east of the IH-35 corridor).

Saturday's Arctic Blast:
Folks, this front is going to mean business. It will drop highs on Saturday from the 70s into the 30s/40s for Sunday on a strong and gusty north wind. This cold air is not just stopping by for a day, it will be with us through the middle of Christmas week. At this point in time, wintry precipitation does NOT look to be a concern, but widespread freezing temperatures and potentially dangerous wind chills are likely to be. I believe all of central Texas needs to prepare for at least one if not two hard freezes by Sunday and/or Monday. Temperature trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days and more updates will be coming.

European Forecast Model Surface Temperature Analysis 
(Saturday, 17 December 2016...6 p.m. CST)


European Forecast Model Surface Temperature Analysis 
(Sunday, 18 December 2016...6 a.m. CST)

European Forecast Model Wind Chill Temperature Analysis 
(Sunday, 18 December 2016...6 a.m. CST)


***Forecast Model Snapshots above are courtesy of WeatherBell Models*** 

Monday, December 12, 2016

Roller Coaster Week

Forecast Discussion:
A weak cold front moved through the area during the early morning hours and helped to clear away the areas of dense fog we experienced across the area late last night and early this morning. Much drier air, as evidenced by dew points in the 40s, has also moved in behind the front. The front is washing out to our south. Afternoon highs under a mainly sunny sky will climb into the 60s. Lows tonight will drop back down into the 40s and 50s under a mainly clear sky. Areas of fog will be possible.

Afternoon highs on Tuesday will soar into the lower 70s under a partly cloudy sky. Another cold front will traverse the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday allowing for cooler conditions to settle back into the area for Wednesday and especially Thursday as stronger cold air advection (horizontal transport of air) occurs. Highs Wednesday drop back into the 60s, highs on Thursday drop back even further into the 50s. Thursday's chill will be brief as southerly winds quickly return by Friday ahead of a strong storm system that will be traversing from west to east across the center of the country. With the return of southerly winds highs will rebound into the 70s on Friday and Saturday ahead of a strong Arctic cold front that looks to arrive late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

Some light rain showers and/or drizzle cannot be ruled out on Thursday/Friday as a weak overrunning pattern sets up over the area (warm, moist air being forced to rise up and over a cooler air mass at the surface).

Saturday night's cold front will have the potential to bring Austin its first official freeze of the season...temperature trends will need to continue to be monitored over the next several days.

Forecast Temperature Map for this coming Saturday at Noon across South Central U.S.



Monday, December 5, 2016

Rain Ending...Cold Coming

Rain coming to an end…
Good Afternoon Folks! Our rainy stretch of weather is closing in on its final hours as the upper level low pressure system responsible for the rain is beginning to approach and move across south central Texas. Drier and more stable air will filter into the area on the backside of this upper level low setting the stage for clearing skies and some sunshine for your Tuesday.

Rainfall Totals (as of 12:30pm Monday):
(National Weather Service & LCRA Reporting Stations)

Travis County

·         Camp Mabry | 2.49 inches
·         Austin Bergstrom International Airport | 3.01 inches
·         LCRA Redbud Center | 2.65 inches
·         Barton Creek at Loop 360 | 2.90 inches
·         Manor | 3.05 inches
·         Lakeway | 2.68 inches
·         Lago Vista | 2.11 inches

The Hill Country received 1-3 inches of rain on average with the heaviest totals falling across Gillespie County. Areas south and east of Austin received quite a bit of rain as well with numerous locations receiving between 3-5 inches. Bastrop County was the winner in terms of rainfall accumulation with 4-6 inches.

Arctic Cold Front (First of the Season)
Now that the rain is beginning to come to an end across the area, our attention is quickly shifting to a strong cold front that will be blowing through the area late Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. This front is bringing the coldest air of the season, so far! Highs expected to be in the 60s on Tuesday, 50s/60s on Wednesday, but by Thursday highs will not get out of the 40s! Gusty north winds on Thursday behind the front will produce wind chills in the 20s/30s all day long. There is a slight chance for some sprinkles/very light rain on Thursday behind the front, and there’s even the chance for a flurry or two across the northwestern Hill Country (no accumulation expected…very low chance). Lows Thursday night into Friday will plummet into the 20s and lower 30s area wide. We are likely to receive our first official freeze of the season in Austin Thursday night/Friday morning.
Highs Friday will once again struggle back into the 40s before a warming trend takes us into the weekend with highs rebounding into the 50s on Saturday and close to 70°F by Sunday.


I will continue to monitor the latest weather trends and update as necessary… 

Saturday, December 3, 2016

Rain to continue...

FORECAST DISCUSSION
Rain, heavy at times, will remain in the forecast for the remainder of the weekend and into the first half of the day on Monday as the upper level storm system currently located south of Arizona takes its time approaching the state of Texas. This overrunning pattern, warm, moist air being forced to rise up and over the cool air mass at the surface will continue for the remainder of the weekend locking in the wet and chilly conditions. Overnight lows tonight will remain steady in the upper 40s and lower 50s area wide with highs on Sunday struggling to get out of the lower 50s area wide.
Rainfall accumulation, so far, has been heaviest to the south of the Austin Metro Area. 

Within the past 24 hours this is how much rain has fallen:
  •          Camp Mabry has received 1.17 inches of rain.
  •          Austin Bergstrom International Airport has received 1.48 inches of rain.
  •          Georgetown Municipal Airport has received 1.50 inches of rain.
  •          San Antonio International Airport has received 3.88 inches of rain.

***An additional 1-3 inches of rain will certainly be possible by the time rains come to an end sometime Monday***

While severe weather is not anticipated over the next couple of days, minor flooding may become an issue in areas that typically see flooding concerns. Flooding concerns look to be highest south and east of the Austin Metro. Lightning cannot be ruled out within the heaviest of the rainfall activity as well as the possibility for some sub-severe (small) hail.

***FLASH FLOOD WATCH for areas south & east of Austin***
With that being noted, the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office has decided to issue a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for areas south and east of Austin. This watch includes BANDERA, BASTROP, LEE, MEDINA, BEXAR, COMAL, GUADALUPE, CALDWELL, FAYETTE, WILSON, GONZALES, AND LAVACA COUNTIES from 10pm CST tonight through late Sunday evening. An additional 1-2 inches of rain with isolated amounts of up to 4 inches of rain are possible in those locations.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
Latest forecast model guidance continues to indicate that some very cold Arctic Air will be heading south into the lower 48 this coming week. As of right now, the Arctic front looks to arrive in central Texas sometime during the day on Wednesday. If models continue to verify, it looks like all of central Texas will see freezing temperatures behind this front, even right in Austin. Luckily, freezing precipitation does NOT look to be an issue with this particular cold front.

Forecast Lows Friday, December 9, 2016 [GFS Model]







Friday, December 2, 2016

Chilly, Wet Weekend Ahead

***WET, CHILLY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS***

An upper level area of low pressure currently developing over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico will slowly be pushing east towards Texas over the next several days. In addition to creating lift, or rising air, over the area, the approaching upper level low has already shifted mid and upper level winds out of the south and southwest on top of the cool, northeasterly winds at the surface (where we live, work, and play). This weather pattern is known as overrunning. Warmer, moister southerly winds are being forced to ride up and over the cooler air mass in place at the surface. This overrunning pattern is quite common across south central Texas during the fall, winter, and spring seasons.

Latest forecast model guidance continues to indicate that ALL locations across the area from the Hill Country to the coastal plains will be receiving rain in the coming days. As of right now, it appears that the heaviest rainfall totals will occur along and especially east of the I-35 corridor. Latest forecast rainfall projections are indicating as much as 2-4 inches of rain could fall over the next several days (Friday-Monday) for areas along and east of I-35 with areas west of I-35 receiving 1-2 inches of rain. While heavy rainfall is certainly possible across the area over the next several days, the majority of the rain will be in the light to moderate category and spaced out over several days, therefore, flash flooding does NOT appear to be a concern for the area. However, minor flooding is certainly possible in flood prone areas/locations. If you have travel plans to southeast Texas, rainfall accumulation has the potential to be higher in those areas with some locations potentially receiving as much as 4-6 inches of rain.


Thanks to the clouds, rain, and northeasterly surface winds across the area, temperatures will remain on the chilly side over the upcoming weekend with highs expected to be in the 50s and lows in the 40s. Thankfully we will not have to worry about any frozen precipitation. Temperatures will remain well above freezing.

The upper level low is forecast to clear the area on Monday and set us up for clearing conditions by Tuesday of next week ahead of a strong cold front that looks to arrive on Wednesday. This front has the potential to bring Austin its first official freeze of the season. More to come on that in future posts.

Bottom line, keep the umbrellas and the rain jackets handy over the upcoming weekend and drive safely and cautiously on area roadways.