HEAVY RAIN is on the way!

Good evening everybody! Dust off the rain gear! You are going to need it for tomorrow and Wednesday. Much needed rainfall is on the way to a good chunk of Texas. Just finished scanning through all of the latest computer models and it still looks like we are on track to receive a good 2-4 inches of rainfall across a large portion of Central Texas; isolated spots could pick up as much as 6 inches of rainfall. Locally heavy rainfall may prompt the National Weather Service to issue a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for Central Texas; rapid run-off from torrential downpours may lead to small stream and creek flooding. I cannot stress this enough, if you come across a flooded roadway, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN. 

Weather Setup:

Large upper level low pressure system is currently spinning across the southwestern United States...this storm system will continue to track southeast into northern Mexico overnight and push towards Texas on Tuesday...ahead of this system, a surface low (low pressure center at the surface) will develop near Laredo and track northeast into Central Texas...as the surface low tracks northeast, it will kick off several rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms. Best chance for severe weather will be associated with the surface low. The main threats from the storms that develop will be gusty winds, heavy rainfall, cloud to ground lightning, small hail, and isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has placed southern areas of central Texas and south Texas under the SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY for severe weather over the coming days.

Forecast radar 7 a.m. Tuesday: Scattered light to moderate rain showers

Forecast radar 3 p.m. Tuesday: Heavy showers and storms possible...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE

Forecast radar 12 a.m. Wednesday: Very heavy rainfall and storms cover much of the area...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE

Let's talk rainfall amounts:

The latest high-resolution NAM Model is showing a widespread 2-5 inch rainfall event across all of central and eastern Texas...in fact, this model in particular highlights the heaviest rainfall falling across Burnet, Llano, and Blanco counties here in Central Texas, estimating over 6 inches of rainfall is possible. 

The latest GFS Model shows a widespread 1-5 inch rainfall event across Texas with heaviest amounts staying along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor.

ARCTIC COLD FRONT UPDATE:

GFS and ECMWF Models both show a strong cold front arriving in Central Texas late Saturday into early Sunday...this front looks to take highs down into the 40s for a good chunk of next week with overnight lows staying below freezing for several nights in the 20s to lower 30s.

Forecast highs and Lows over the next two weeks by the GFS Model...check out the stretch of 40s next week!