Next week is starting to get interesting!

Hi folks! I couldn't resist writing a blog for next week's weather. Long range forecast models have continually been indicating a decent shot at showers and thunderstorms for central Texas for Tuesday/Wednesday. Behind the showers and storms Canadian Air will filter into the region and keep us cool for Wednesday through Friday ahead of an arctic cold front that looks to arrive next Friday. The two main forecast models I look at, the GFS and the ECMWF are both telling two slightly different stories right now.

This is a look at the system I'm watching currently located in the Pacific that will bring us our shot for rainfall Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

Both the GFS and the ECMWF models agree on rain for Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, however, they disagree on just how much rainfall we are actually going to see. The ECMWF model is much more optimistic on a widespread HEAVY RAINFALL event while the GFS is significantly drier and not as widespread. 

Here's a look at estimated rainfall accumulation between now and Thursday of next week from the GFS Model:

Model is predicting areas along and east of I-35 to receive 0.30 to 0.60 inches of rainfall with areas west of the interstate only receiving 0.10-0.40 inches of rainfall.

The ECMWF model is forecasting a completely different scenario with widespread 0.70 to 2 inches of rainfall possible.

So what is a forecaster to do in this type of situation? The best thing to do is forecast in between the models...a very rough estimate at this point would be anywhere from 0.40 to 1.50 inches of rainfall for central Texas. Of course, this forecast is subject to change.

Now, let's talk cold fronts. We will start next week off on the sunny and cool side with an area wide freeze Monday morning giving way to a mostly sunny and cool afternoon with a high in the upper 50s to lower 60s ...winds will start kicking up out of the south ahead of the approaching storm system and stay gusty through Tuesday. Highs Tuesday will climb into the 60s ahead of the system before dropping into the 30s Tuesday night...50s and 60s for highs on Wednesday and Thursday...60s on Friday ahead of the arctic front that will really kick up the winds around here and drop temps from the 60s into the 20s and lower 30s by Saturday morning with wind chills in the 0s and 10s...highs on Saturday would struggle into the lower 40s before dropping into the 10s and 20s Saturday night. As of right now, computer models are indicating this front will blast well south of the Texas-Mexico Border and move all the way through the Bay of Campeche...that's a powerful front.

Next Friday evening:

Next Saturday evening:

Keep in mind, this forecast is likely to change over the coming days. However, overall we look to get a bit of everything next week, sun, wind, rain, and cold.