Heavy Rain & Much Cooler Weather

What a weekend it turned out to be! A good 4-6 inches of rain fell across a majority of the Austin Area with some spots picking up double that. Portions of west and southwest Austin received upwards of 8-12 inches of rainfall. Disturbances moving out of Mexico and rich tropical moisture in place allowed for the drenching, slow-moving thunderstorms to develop.

Lake Travis rose two feet from this weekend's rainfall, however, Lake Buchanan held steady. Hopefully this next round of rain will give areas north and west of Austin some higher rainfall totals.

Rainfall Totals across Travis County:

Rainfall Totals across southeastern Central Texas:

Rainfall Totals across the Hill Country: 

It has been a showery and humid Monday across mainly areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Areas west have not seen much in the way of rainfall today. We are in a bit of a lull right now waiting for our next weather system to impact the area on Tuesday. A strong October cold front looks to move through the area late Tuesday evening into the early morning hours of Wednesday. Ahead of, and especially behind this frontal boundary, I'm expecting widespread areas of heavy tropical downpours to develop that would have the potential to drop another 1-3 inches of rainfall across the area. The difficulty in this forecast is trying to pin point where the heavy rain will set up. Latest high resolution forecast models have shifted the heaviest rains to fall just north of south central Texas, however, that does not mean we should let our guard down. A very moist, tropical atmosphere extending from the surface to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be forced to rise and precipitate as the cold front approaches the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. It is important to know that since the ground is so moist across a good portion of the area, especially right here in the Austin Metro Area, that additional rainfall will create flash flooding in a hurry. Please remember this motto, if you come across a flooded road way: TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN! It is not worth the risk. Not only do you put yourself in harm's way, you put those that have to come and rescue you in harm's way as well.

High Resolution NAM Model Forecast Rainfall Totals:

The low-level moisture is well in place thanks to southerly winds off of the Gulf, however, the mid and upper level moisture is thanks to Tropical Storm Octave located over the southern Baja Peninsula of Mexico. Southwesterly winds aloft are carrying that tropical moisture over Mexico and into Texas. This type of set-up typically produces some of our heaviest rainfall events here in central Texas, as evidenced by Saturday night's torrential tropical downpours.

Tropical Storm Octave Moisture Plume: 

The cold front will sweep through the area late Tuesday and early Wednesday ushering in much colder air behind it. Temps will fall from the 70s into the 50s area wide by Wednesday morning. In fact, temperatures on Wednesday will have a hard time getting out of the 50s under a cloudy, showery sky. What a change!!! Wednesday looks to start off on the stormy side, however, by afternoon it should just be cloudy, chilly and breezy with on and off showers possible. 

2 p.m. Forecast Temperatures on Wednesday: In the 50s!!!

Highs will climb back into the 60s and 70s as we head into Thursday. Thursday looks to be dry before rain chances return to the area on Friday and Saturday. Rain is beginning to look likely across the area on Friday ahead of another disturbance.  

Wet Weekend

Hello everybody! What gorgeous weather we have been enjoying the past several days. Now that southerly winds have returned to the area ahead of an approaching storm system and cold front, moisture levels are on the increase. Latest high resolution forecast model for central Texas shows dew points near 70° to start the day on Friday. Remember, the higher the dew point, the more moisture is in the air. 

Dew Point Temperatures Friday Morning:

Increasing moisture levels at both the surface and aloft combined with several disturbances that will be passing over central Texas this weekend from the southwest will make showers and thunderstorms likely. As a cold front approaches the area next Tuesday, the threat for heavy rain will increase. 

Day by Day Forecast:

Friday: Cloudy, mild, and muggy AM in the 70s will give way to a partly sunny, warm, and muggy afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 80s area wide. There is a 30% chance for showers during the afternoon and evening.

Saturday: 50% chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms; some of the rain may be heavy at times (especially during the afternoon hours thanks to daytime heating which helps to destabilize the atmosphere). Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 70s.

Sunday: 60% chance for showers and thunderstorms; some of the storms will produce heavy downpours. Highs will be in the 80s with lows in the 70s. 

How much rain are we talking?

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is forecasting a good 1-2 inches of rain to fall between Friday and the middle of next week across central Texas.

The latest GFS Forecast Model is suggesting just over 2 inches of rain for the Austin Area between Friday and the middle of next week.

COLD FRONT

A fairly strong cold front looks to move through the area next Tuesday. Behind the front skies will rapidly clear and drier and cooler air will invade central Texas on breezy northerly winds. Highs will be knocked down into the 70s and lower 80s with lows in the 40s and 50s for the middle/end of next week under mainly sunny/clear skies. Ahead of the front on Tuesday, heavy rain looks to be likely.

Front moving in Tuesday Afternoon:

The GFS Model has a good chunk of the state of Texas in the 40s by early Thursday morning of next week! 

COOL DOWN on the way!

Hello everybody! True fall weather is on its way! The much anticipated cold front is due to arrive in Austin early Saturday morning. Ahead of the front for Thursday and Friday expect cloudy, muggy, foggy, and drizzly mornings in the 70s which will give way to partly cloudy, steamy, and warm conditions during the afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. There is a 20% chance for rain on both Thursday and Friday with a 30% chance for showers as the front moves through the region on Saturday.

Behind the front on Saturday, north winds will kick up and MUCH drier and cooler air will invade the area from the north. Highs will be in the 70s on Saturday behind the front with lows falling into the 50s area wide by early Sunday morning. Some lingering cloud cover looks to be possible behind the front on Saturday, however, that will help it feel even cooler. Winds may gust as high as 25-30 mph behind the front.

GFS Model Showing the Front blowing in early Saturday Morning!!

Sunday looks to be an absolutely gorgeous day with highs only managing the 70s to near 80°F in a few locations under a clear, blue sky. Humidity will nearly be non-existent as dew points will likely fall into the 30s across the region. Keep in mind our dew point today has been in the 60s and lower 70s making it feel oppressively humid out there. 

Lows Sunday night will plummet into the lower 50s here in Austin with 40s expected in rural locations. Highs will gradually warm as we head into the beginning and middle of next week as southerly winds return. Earlier model runs were indicating a second, possibly stronger front next weekend, however, it is way too soon to say for sure if that will actually happen. 

Hurricane Season is not over, and believe it or not, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an impressive area of strong convection (thunderstorm activity) across the southern Gulf of Mexico. This cluster of storms is beginning to look like it is going to form into a tropical storm and push into the northeastern Gulf by Friday...too soon to say where it is going to make landfall, however, latest model runs show anywhere from the central Louisiana coast all the way to the western Florida peninsula to be in the cone of uncertainty. The approaching front and a large trough of low pressure over the central US will keep the disturbance away from Texas and push it north and east.

Visible Satellite Image of the area being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (Photo was taken earlier today):

GFS Model showing the system turning into a strong tropical storm and making landfall in the Florida Panhandle early Sunday morning:

 

Weekend Forecast & Beyond

Hello everybody! The weekend is almost here. Moisture levels are beginning to increase across the area today ahead of a weak cool front that will stall out just north of central Texas this weekend. This front will be the focus for the development of showers and thunderstorms. The best rain chances look to be north and west of Austin this weekend. I'm putting our chances for precipitation at 40% on Saturday and 30% on Sunday. Highs will still be able to climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s over the weekend, however, lows will be coming up considerably from where they have been in the 50s and 60s into the 70s thanks to the very humid/moist Gulf of Mexico air that will be in place. Honestly, I'm not very excited about our rain chances this weekend. By no means is this going to be a repeat of wonderful rain event we received last Friday. 

Models keep the highest rainfall totals NORTH of central Texas along the frontal boundary:

 

Rain chances will begin to dwindle on Monday and continues will begin to dry out. Looking at the long range forecast, the GFS Model has been consistent in bringing us a true cold front come next weekend. This front looks to have the potential to bring us some good rainfall as well as some significantly cooler temperatures. Highs may only make the 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. Nice!!! Please keep in mind that this forecast is a ways out, however, it is beginning to look like cooler air is on the way.

GFS Model showing cold front moving through Texas next Friday:

Weekend Forecast:

Friday: Partly cloudy, mild and humid start in the 70s will give way to a partly cloudy, hot and humid afternoon with highs in the lower 90s. Thanks to the increased moisture, heat index values will climb to near the century mark.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, warm, and muggy start will give way to a mostly cloudy warm and humid day with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Rain chances will increase throughout the day; 40% chance for showers and storms. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, warm and humid with highs in the 80s; there is a 30-40% chance for showers and storms. 

Drought Relief!!!

Finally! Some much needed rainfall. While this is not drought-ending rainfall, it is definitely drought-denting rainfall. Several locations across the Hill Country from Mason and Gillespie counties all the way east to western Travis County have picked up anywhere from 2-7 inches of rainfall. While most of that rain will soak into the ground, the run-off will find its way into the Highland Lakes. The highest rainfall total I can find so far is 6.98 inches of rainfall 8 miles northeast of the small town of Harper in Gillespie County (northwest of Fredericksburg). A solid 1-3 inches of rainfall has fallen across the Austin Metro Area with a weather station at Barton Creek and Loop 360 measuring just over 3 inches of rainfall!

Rainfall Totals from across central Texas as of 4:00 p.m. Friday: 

Where is all this wonderful rain coming from? Well, we can actually give thanks to three key ingredients. If you can believe it, rich tropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean (remnants of Hurricane Manuel) that dropped copious rainfall amounts on western Mexico (including the Acapulco area) was pulled northeast towards Texas thanks to a dip in the jet stream across the central plains. That mid and upper level moisture combined with plenty of sticky Gulf of Mexico air and a late summer/early fall cold front are all working together to give us this wonderful rainfall event. Some of Austin's heaviest rainfall events have occurred due to this type of setup. The atmosphere is just so incredibly moist that it only takes a bit of lift for numerous showers and storms to develop.

Visible Satellite Image of Hurricane Manuel (earlier this week):

 
 As the cold front (currently located just northwest of central Texas) continues to push towards our area rain will continue to develop...the front should clear most, if not all of Central Texas by noon Saturday allowing for a drying trend to take hold. Northerly winds behind the front along with moist grounds will keep highs in the 80s for both Saturday and Sunday. Sunshine may return as early as Saturday afternoon for areas along and west of Interstate 35. We should see plenty of sun as we head into Saturday and much of next week as high pressure builds into the area behind the front. The lower humidity and clear skies will allow for comfortable mornings in the 60s starting as early as Sunday morning and continuing through early next week. Unfortunately, temps in the 90s will return for the start of next week, however, moisture levels are expected to be much lower than where they have been. 

Moisture levels (humidity) will begin to increase as we head into late next week and next weekend ahead of a possibly stronger cold front around October 2nd. 

Enjoy the rain and the slight cool down heading our way! Thankfully triple digits will not be back into the forecast until next year!

Light/moderate rain will continue on and off through the evening and into the overnight hours. I believe the heaviest rains are now going to be focused more so east of Austin and across southeast Texas.

Great Links: Just click on the words to go to the websites

LCRA Hydromet

Wundermap Radar

Just what the doctor ordered!

Hello everybody. It sure has been nice the past couple of days with the sporadic rain showers, clouds and in turn "cooler" temperatures! While we have been spoiled the past couple of days, Mother Nature is going to turn up the heat for Wednesday, and really crank up the heat for the end of the week and the weekend when highs are expected to climb back into the upper 90s area wide, with some spots reaching the triple digits. Now, if you have seen good rainfall amounts over the past couple of days, most likely you will not see triple digits, however, no matter how you look at it...95°F with a lot of humidity is not exactly better. 

The big and exciting news in the forecast is that long range models have been consistently forecasting a tropical disturbance (now located just east of the Yucatan Peninsula) to move into the Bay of Campeche (extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico) over the coming days. Right now, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a 20% chance for tropical cyclone development, HOWEVER, they are forecasting that this system has a HIGH, 70% likelihood, or developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Will this system become a hurricane? It is too early to say right now, however, conditions are favorable for development. If this disturbance does in fact become a named system, the next name in line is Ingrid.

Current Position of the Tropical Disturbance:

Forecasted Position of the Tropical Disturbance by early next week:

High Resolution Model showing a tropical storm in south TX early next week:

Water temperatures are running a good 84-86°F across much of the Gulf of Mexico. Warm, moist air over the Gulf feeds tropical systems. Another key factor in determining if a tropical system will be able to develop is wind shear. If winds are too strong in the upper levels of the atmosphere...clouds that develop will literally be blown down by the strong winds. Thankfully, it is looking like wind shear will not be hindrance to development.

Current Surface Water Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico: GREEN represents water temperature of 84-86°F

The latest run of the GFS model wants to bring this system into south Texas by early next week. Too soon to say whether this system will develop into a hurricane, however, a strong Tropical Storm is not out of the question for early next week in deep south Texas. The model then takes that system north into central Texas where it would likely dump several inches of rain on central Texas. Some places may even possibly see as much as a foot (12 inches) of rain!! That would be incredible for our drought situation. Over the next 16 days, the GFS model is forecasting around 5 inches of rainfall for the Austin Metro Area.

Forecast Rainfall Totals between now and next Wednesday:

High Resolution Forecast Rainfall Totals between now and next Wednesday for Texas:

Of course, please keep in mind that this is a ways out and things are likely to change, however, it is a good sign to see the forecast model being so consistent. With the clouds and rain, highs would be held down in the 70s and 80s for much of next week if all works out. How great would that be? 

I will be watching this disturbance closely and will likely be posting more on this event as more information comes in and things actually start to develop. Remember, you can always follow me on my Facebook Page, Michael's Weather Center.

You can watch the development of this system and get all of the latest information posted by the National Hurricane Center, along with satellite imagery by clicking HERE.

Persistent Heat/Slight Rain Chances

Hello everybody. I hope you all are having a great start to your Labor Day Weekend. Thanks to a persistent upper level ridge of high pressure and dry air aloft, temps were once again able to climb well into the triple digits again on Saturday afternoon. We officially climbed to 104ºF at Camp Mabry on Saturday thankfully missing the record high of 107ºF set back in the very hot summer of 2000. 

With high pressure in control of our weather again on Sunday, I'm expecting another very HOT day with highs in the 101-105ºF range area wide. Some high resolution forecast models were indicating the possibility of scattered showers and storms entering portions of central Texas Sunday evening. I think that particular model is being a bit too aggressive with our rainfall chances. Most, if not all of the shower and storm activity that flares up on Sunday, should stay north of central Texas. 

Believe it or not, the upper level disturbance that gave us some rainfall earlier this week is actually going to be making a return visit to the area by Monday, therefore, I'm putting in a 20% chance for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across the region on Monday. Keep in mind, storms that develop this time of year in a hot atmosphere tend to produce very gusty winds. 

Even though we do have a chance for rain, I would not get too excited about it. Those that do see rain, if they see any at at all, should consider themselves very lucky. The WPC (Weather Prediction Center) is predicting anywhere from a trace to as much as 0.25 inches of rainfall across central Texas over the next 5 days. This map is put together by taking the average of many different forecast models. 

5 Day Rainfall Forecast:

Here's a look at that upper level disturbance on water vapor imagery. The areas in orange represent very dry air at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere...areas in gray represent areas with slightly higher moisture content.

Temperatures will be slow to cool off through next week with highs staying very close to the century mark. Temperatures may begin to moderate a bit as we head into the week after next, however, by moderate I mean go down into the 90s. Long range forecast models not showing any hints at fall-like weather just yet. Hang in there, fall is not too far off. I'm so looking forward to the beautiful fall weather here in central Texas. Sunny skies with highs in the 70s in the afternoon and 40s at night.