Heavy Rain & Much Cooler Weather

What a weekend it turned out to be! A good 4-6 inches of rain fell across a majority of the Austin Area with some spots picking up double that. Portions of west and southwest Austin received upwards of 8-12 inches of rainfall. Disturbances moving out of Mexico and rich tropical moisture in place allowed for the drenching, slow-moving thunderstorms to develop.

Lake Travis rose two feet from this weekend's rainfall, however, Lake Buchanan held steady. Hopefully this next round of rain will give areas north and west of Austin some higher rainfall totals.

Rainfall Totals across Travis County:

Rainfall Totals across southeastern Central Texas:

Rainfall Totals across the Hill Country: 

It has been a showery and humid Monday across mainly areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor. Areas west have not seen much in the way of rainfall today. We are in a bit of a lull right now waiting for our next weather system to impact the area on Tuesday. A strong October cold front looks to move through the area late Tuesday evening into the early morning hours of Wednesday. Ahead of, and especially behind this frontal boundary, I'm expecting widespread areas of heavy tropical downpours to develop that would have the potential to drop another 1-3 inches of rainfall across the area. The difficulty in this forecast is trying to pin point where the heavy rain will set up. Latest high resolution forecast models have shifted the heaviest rains to fall just north of south central Texas, however, that does not mean we should let our guard down. A very moist, tropical atmosphere extending from the surface to the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be forced to rise and precipitate as the cold front approaches the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. It is important to know that since the ground is so moist across a good portion of the area, especially right here in the Austin Metro Area, that additional rainfall will create flash flooding in a hurry. Please remember this motto, if you come across a flooded road way: TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN! It is not worth the risk. Not only do you put yourself in harm's way, you put those that have to come and rescue you in harm's way as well.

High Resolution NAM Model Forecast Rainfall Totals:

The low-level moisture is well in place thanks to southerly winds off of the Gulf, however, the mid and upper level moisture is thanks to Tropical Storm Octave located over the southern Baja Peninsula of Mexico. Southwesterly winds aloft are carrying that tropical moisture over Mexico and into Texas. This type of set-up typically produces some of our heaviest rainfall events here in central Texas, as evidenced by Saturday night's torrential tropical downpours.

Tropical Storm Octave Moisture Plume: 

The cold front will sweep through the area late Tuesday and early Wednesday ushering in much colder air behind it. Temps will fall from the 70s into the 50s area wide by Wednesday morning. In fact, temperatures on Wednesday will have a hard time getting out of the 50s under a cloudy, showery sky. What a change!!! Wednesday looks to start off on the stormy side, however, by afternoon it should just be cloudy, chilly and breezy with on and off showers possible. 

2 p.m. Forecast Temperatures on Wednesday: In the 50s!!!

Highs will climb back into the 60s and 70s as we head into Thursday. Thursday looks to be dry before rain chances return to the area on Friday and Saturday. Rain is beginning to look likely across the area on Friday ahead of another disturbance.