Stormy Days Ahead

Forecast Discussion

An upper level storm system approaching from the west will work together with a slow moving frontal system to increase our chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong/severe, across the area beginning as early as tomorrow morning and peaking late Tuesday night into midday Wednesday. By the time this is all said and done, many locations across central Texas have the potential to pick up between 1-2 inches of rain. Some locations may receive less and some locations may receive more.

The Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, Oklahoma has placed our area under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather tomorrow through Wednesday. The main threats from the storms that are able to turn severe will be large hail (greater than or equal to 1" in diameter) and strong, gusty winds (greater than or equal to 58 mph). At this point in time, flash flooding does not appear to be a threat, but some minor flooding could occur in areas that are typically prone to flooding during heavy rainfall events. Deadly cloud to ground lightning will be a threat in any storm that develops (weak or severe). Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors.

Pay attention to the Threat Impact Levels Chart in images below

Tuesday Severe Weather Threat
Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service Forecast Office

Wednesday Severe Weather Threat
Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service Forecast Office

Central Texas Forecast Rainfall Accumulation Graphic
Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service Forecast Office

We are in a moderate/severe drought across the area, so beneficial rains are a welcome sight. Hopefully this rain will be more beneficial than troublesome. Another benefit of the rain will be to cleanse the air and outdoor surfaces from the tremendous amounts of spring pollen.

Please stay tuned to the latest weather information and heed all watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service/Storm Prediction Center. 

Potentially Stormy Weather Pattern Next Week

Forecast Discussion

With the lack of recent rainfall, the drought across the area continues to worsen. Per the latest drought monitor published today (see below), the majority of central Texas is now considered to be in the moderate drought category with areas of severe drought now across eastern Travis County, western Bastrop County, Caldwell, Hays, and Comal Counties.

There are indications in the medium to long range forecast models that some much needed rainfall may be on the way. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC), in their latest 7 day rainfall outlook (see below), is forecasting the potential for 1-3 inches of rain to fall across the area between now and next Friday with the majority of that rain falling during the middle to latter portions of next week.

Friday - The Weekend

With high pressure in place at the upper levels of the atmosphere, the weather will remain fairly tranquil with increasing moisture levels across the area as persistent southerly winds continue to bring Gulf of Mexico moisture back into the area. Late night/morning low clouds can be expected giving way to partly sunny afternoons. Morning lows in the 60s and afternoon highs in the 80s can be expected. Rain is NOT in the forecast this weekend, but some patchy morning drizzle cannot be ruled out. 

Next Week - Stormy Pattern (especially Wed-Fri)

By the beginning of next week, a large trough of low pressure is expected to take shape across the western United States (a dip in the jet stream) that looks to generate an upper level storm system across the desert southwest (a large, cold, pocket of air aloft) that promotes lift and instability in the atmosphere. As this upper low approaches Texas, the counter-clockwise rotation around this upper level storm system will send disturbances, or ripples in the atmosphere across Texas that will each bring with them a chance for showers and storms. As the main upper system approaches the area and combines forces with a surface cold front, our chances for showers and thunderstorms look to increase dramatically for Wednesday-Friday of next week. Given that we are in March, we will need to keep an eye out for some potential severe weather next week.