Weather Setup
A potent upper level storm system approaching Texas from
the west will kick off a round of potential severe thunderstorms across far west
Texas late this afternoon and evening that will congeal into a line of showers
and thunderstorms that will move east late tonight and into the early morning
hours of Wednesday before reaching the I-35 corridor before sunrise Tuesday
morning. Storms should clear east of the I-35 corridor after the morning commute. Please plan accordingly for tomorrow morning given the expected thunderstorms.
Widespread fog, mist, drizzle and low clouds this
morning are thanks to a warm front moving north into the area from south Texas.
Southeasterly winds have returned to both Austin and San Antonio and dew points
and temperatures are rising behind the warm front. This warm front is sensing
the approach of tonight’s storm system and is forced to move north. Plenty of
sticky Gulf of Mexico Air is working its way north into the area. Despite
temperatures in the 60s now, 70s are creeping north and will be here for this afternoon
on breezy southeasterly winds. I'm not expecting much in the way of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening. Rain chances will really begin to increase after midnight and rapidly decrease from west to east by midday Wednesday morning.
Forecast Radar (6 a.m. CDT Wednesday - Hi Res NAM Forecast Model)
Shows a line of strong storms along the I-35 corridor from the Oklahoma/TX Border to the Mexico/TX Border
Forecast Model image courtesy of COD Meteorology
How much rain are we going to see?
Given the progressive nature of the system, flooding does not look to be a concern. Rainfall amounts will generally average 0.25 to 0.50 inches with amounts of 0.75-1 inch not out of the question.
Will we see any severe weather with these
storms?
The best opportunity for severe weather (large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes) will remain well west of central Texas across
west and far west Texas where the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman,
Oklahoma has placed those locations in an enhanced risk for severe weather
today & tonight. Portions of the Hill Country from roughly the Highway 281
corridor and west have been placed under the slight risk category for severe
weather today & tonight and areas along the I-35 corridor have been placed
under the marginal risk category for potential severe weather (the lowest risk
category). The biggest issue for us along the I-35 corridor is going to be
brief heavy downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and potentially some
strong, gusty winds along some portions of the line of storms as it moves
through the area tomorrow morning.
What do these severe weather risks mean ???
Image courtesy of the NWS Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office
Tuesday’s Severe Weather Risk Areas
Wednesday’s Severe Weather Risk Areas
What can we expect behind the storms?
Sunshine, dry air and warmer temperatures! Highs behind
tomorrow morning’s storms will rebound into the 70s thanks to a breezy west
southwesterly wind behind tomorrow morning’s Pacific cold front. Some locations
may climb into the lower 80s. Cooler weather will make a return to the area beginning
on Thursday and really becoming noticeable Friday into the upcoming weekend and
highs drop down into the 50s/60s and overnight lows dip down into the 30s/40s.
Please remain weather aware and have a way to receive watches/warnings issued by the National Weather Service. Make sure you have a safety plan in place when and if severe weather should strike. It is always a good idea to be situationally aware.
