Thunderstorms on the way!

Good Afternoon Everybody! I just wanted to take a moment to write a brief blog on the heavy rainfall event that is likely to take shape this evening and through the overnight hours.

All the ingredients are coming together for rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms to move through the region beginning this evening and persisting through Thursday morning. Plenty of Gulf of Mexico moisture, combined with upper level moisture from Tropical Storm Raymond out in the Pacific and an approaching storm system and its attendant cold front will all work together to give us a 100% chance for storms beginning this evening and persisting through Thursday morning. The heaviest activity, according to the latest run of the HRRR Model (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model) will arrive around, if not before, midnight for the far western Hill Country. The model is showing a strong, possibly severe, line of storms pushing into the region. Storms that develop will have the potential to produce strong damaging winds and hail. That line of storms will move from west to east through the overnight hours and looks to arrive along the I-35 corridor around 3 a.m. Keep in mind, things may slow down or speed up. 

Forecasted Radar for 1 a.m. (Strong, possibly severe, line of storms pushing through the Hill Country):

Given our risk for severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center has placed much of north, central, east, and south Texas under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather this evening and overnight. Areas shaded in yellow are under the Slight Risk Category.

In addition, and of even greater concern, is the risk of flash flooding. The tropical air mass in place will assure that the storms will drop copious amounts of rainfall quickly. I'm expecting a good 1-3 inches of rain to fall area wide with some spots picking up as much as 4-5 inches of rain. 

The good news is that once the line of storms pushes through a clearing trend will take place for Thursday (Halloween) afternoon. Cooler and drier weather will arrive behind the front by Friday morning with lows expected to fall into the 40s and 50s. Beautiful weekend shaping up with highs in the 70s and 80s and lows in the 40s and 50s. Saturday night looks to be the coldest night under clear skies; mid 40s expected here in Austin. Out-lying areas will dip into the lower 40s. Clouds increase on Sunday ahead of our next storm system that will bring rain chances back to central Texas for the beginning of next week ahead of a strong cold front that will arrive next Wednesday. That front will have the potential to drop highs into the 50s with lows in the 30s and 40s!!!