Just what the doctor ordered!

Hello everybody. It sure has been nice the past couple of days with the sporadic rain showers, clouds and in turn "cooler" temperatures! While we have been spoiled the past couple of days, Mother Nature is going to turn up the heat for Wednesday, and really crank up the heat for the end of the week and the weekend when highs are expected to climb back into the upper 90s area wide, with some spots reaching the triple digits. Now, if you have seen good rainfall amounts over the past couple of days, most likely you will not see triple digits, however, no matter how you look at it...95°F with a lot of humidity is not exactly better. 

The big and exciting news in the forecast is that long range models have been consistently forecasting a tropical disturbance (now located just east of the Yucatan Peninsula) to move into the Bay of Campeche (extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico) over the coming days. Right now, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving this system a 20% chance for tropical cyclone development, HOWEVER, they are forecasting that this system has a HIGH, 70% likelihood, or developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days as it moves into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Will this system become a hurricane? It is too early to say right now, however, conditions are favorable for development. If this disturbance does in fact become a named system, the next name in line is Ingrid.

Current Position of the Tropical Disturbance:

Forecasted Position of the Tropical Disturbance by early next week:

High Resolution Model showing a tropical storm in south TX early next week:

Water temperatures are running a good 84-86°F across much of the Gulf of Mexico. Warm, moist air over the Gulf feeds tropical systems. Another key factor in determining if a tropical system will be able to develop is wind shear. If winds are too strong in the upper levels of the atmosphere...clouds that develop will literally be blown down by the strong winds. Thankfully, it is looking like wind shear will not be hindrance to development.

Current Surface Water Temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico: GREEN represents water temperature of 84-86°F

The latest run of the GFS model wants to bring this system into south Texas by early next week. Too soon to say whether this system will develop into a hurricane, however, a strong Tropical Storm is not out of the question for early next week in deep south Texas. The model then takes that system north into central Texas where it would likely dump several inches of rain on central Texas. Some places may even possibly see as much as a foot (12 inches) of rain!! That would be incredible for our drought situation. Over the next 16 days, the GFS model is forecasting around 5 inches of rainfall for the Austin Metro Area.

Forecast Rainfall Totals between now and next Wednesday:

High Resolution Forecast Rainfall Totals between now and next Wednesday for Texas:

Of course, please keep in mind that this is a ways out and things are likely to change, however, it is a good sign to see the forecast model being so consistent. With the clouds and rain, highs would be held down in the 70s and 80s for much of next week if all works out. How great would that be? 

I will be watching this disturbance closely and will likely be posting more on this event as more information comes in and things actually start to develop. Remember, you can always follow me on my Facebook Page, Michael's Weather Center.

You can watch the development of this system and get all of the latest information posted by the National Hurricane Center, along with satellite imagery by clicking HERE.