Persistent Heat/Slight Rain Chances

Hello everybody. I hope you all are having a great start to your Labor Day Weekend. Thanks to a persistent upper level ridge of high pressure and dry air aloft, temps were once again able to climb well into the triple digits again on Saturday afternoon. We officially climbed to 104ºF at Camp Mabry on Saturday thankfully missing the record high of 107ºF set back in the very hot summer of 2000. 

With high pressure in control of our weather again on Sunday, I'm expecting another very HOT day with highs in the 101-105ºF range area wide. Some high resolution forecast models were indicating the possibility of scattered showers and storms entering portions of central Texas Sunday evening. I think that particular model is being a bit too aggressive with our rainfall chances. Most, if not all of the shower and storm activity that flares up on Sunday, should stay north of central Texas. 

Believe it or not, the upper level disturbance that gave us some rainfall earlier this week is actually going to be making a return visit to the area by Monday, therefore, I'm putting in a 20% chance for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across the region on Monday. Keep in mind, storms that develop this time of year in a hot atmosphere tend to produce very gusty winds. 

Even though we do have a chance for rain, I would not get too excited about it. Those that do see rain, if they see any at at all, should consider themselves very lucky. The WPC (Weather Prediction Center) is predicting anywhere from a trace to as much as 0.25 inches of rainfall across central Texas over the next 5 days. This map is put together by taking the average of many different forecast models. 

5 Day Rainfall Forecast:

Here's a look at that upper level disturbance on water vapor imagery. The areas in orange represent very dry air at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere...areas in gray represent areas with slightly higher moisture content.

Temperatures will be slow to cool off through next week with highs staying very close to the century mark. Temperatures may begin to moderate a bit as we head into the week after next, however, by moderate I mean go down into the 90s. Long range forecast models not showing any hints at fall-like weather just yet. Hang in there, fall is not too far off. I'm so looking forward to the beautiful fall weather here in central Texas. Sunny skies with highs in the 70s in the afternoon and 40s at night.