Tuesday Morning Front/Storms

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A very potent and dynamic pacific upper level low is currently located over the four corners region…out ahead of the upper level low at the surface, surface pressures are dropping along the front range of the Rockies…this drop in pressure has allowed winds to turn southerly across the area, efficiently allowing lots of gulf of Mexico moisture to roar back into the area…as this upper level low continues to push east through the evening and especially into the overnight hours, southerly winds will pick up across the area allowing for a continual feed of rich gulf moisture to continue to stream into the area ahead of an approaching surface frontal boundary being kicked east by the upper level low located back over the four corners region…the surface cold front is currently located across eastern New Mexico and far west Texas where gusty winds this afternoon have kicked up quite a bit of blowing dust…temperatures in El Paso have dropped into the 40s as of 5 p.m. CST after climbing into the 70s earlier today…winds are currently sustained out of the west in El Paso at 40 mph and gusting over 50 mph…earlier wind gusts approached 60 mph!

SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES/WARNINGS:

The Texas Panhandle, including the cities of Lubbock and Amarillo, is under a TORNADO WATCH until 9 p.m. CST...see map below 

NO WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

COLD FRONT/STORMS TUESDAY MORNING:

That cold front will be moving into south central Texas early Tuesday morning and moving through the I-35 corridor between 4-8 a.m. CST tomorrow morning

>>>A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS FRONT AND SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA<<<

>>>THE BIGGEST THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. FLASH FLOODING SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE FAST-MOVING NATURE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM<<<

>>>THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND LATE NIGHT/OVERNIGHT HOURS SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE DOWNPOURS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA, AS WELL AS AREAS OF VERY LIGHT RAIN, MIST AND DRIZZLE. VISIBILITIES WILL COME DOWN OVERNIGHT AS THE HUMIDITY INCREASES OVER THE AREA, HOWEVER, DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BECOME A CONCERN DUE TO THE FORECAST BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING<<<

FORECAST RADAR AT 2 A.M. CST (22Z HRRR MODEL OUTPUT)

(Image courtesy of WeatherBell Models)

FORECAST RADAR AT 6 A.M. CST (HRRR MODEL OUTPUT)...THIS PARTICULAR MODEL BRINGS THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LINE OF STORMS INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AROUND 6 A.M. CST

(Image courtesy of WeatherBell Models)

SEVERE WEATHER RISK:

We are under a marginal risk for severe weather here in central Texas, however, I feel the best chances for severe weather will remain north and west of us here in central Texas…regardless, strong storms capable of 40-50 mph winds will be possible Tuesday morning. Morning commute will be affected by the weather on Tuesday, so please do plan accordingly for that…please use a lot of common sense on roadways tomorrow morning and pack your patience. The good thing is that storms should be moving through here quickly. 

GRAB A JACKET/LIGHT SWEATER BEFORE HEADING OUT THE DOOR TOMORROW, YOU WILL NOTICE THE DROP IN TEMPS!

Much drier and cooler air mass moves into the area behind the cold front and storms tomorrow morning…behind the front, winds will abruptly shift from the south/southeast to the west/northwest and sustain themselves between 10-20 mph across the area with gusts in the 25-30 mph range on Tuesday…skies will slowly clear from west to east during the day Tuesday and we should be in for a mostly clear and chilly night across the area tomorrow night with lows in the 40s area wide. Highs Tuesday will only manage the upper 60s to lower 70s across the area.

COLD FRONT FORECAST POSITION (5 A.M. TUESDAY MORNING)...CHECK OUT THE TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT!! 40s and 50s BEHIND THE FRONT, MUGGY 70s AHEAD OF IT...HIGHS TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL RECOVER INTO THE 60s...40s AREA WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOME LOW-LYING OUT-LYING AREAS WILL DIP INTO THE 30s!

Image courtesy of WeatherBell Models (annotations done by me)

Forecast Lows across the state of Texas/south central United States Tuesday night/Wednesday morning...check out all of the 40s!! across central Texas...30s across West Texas!

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits