Michael's Weather Blog: STORMY EVENING/OVERNIGHT

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good Afternoon folks! I’ve just finished analyzing and looking over all of the latest forecast model data and guidance. All of the ingredients are really beginning to come together to produce a potentially very stormy evening and overnight across south central Texas. The latest runs of the HRRR Model (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model) which updates itself hourly with all of the latest weather and atmospheric conditions factored in, is painting a concerning picture for our area.

It’s just one of those days you can feel storms are coming. Very warm and muggy out there right now with temperatures in the 80s…as of the latest data available from the Storm Prediction Center, the CAPE, Convective Available Potential Energy, the juice to keep storms going, is quite high across the area for early November. Plentiful moisture and CAPE, combined with approaching surface and upper level lift will provide a more than sufficient atmosphere for storms to develop and thrive. An approaching Pacific Cold Front will be the focus for the storms to develop. The front’s forward speed is going to be crucial in determining, just how long heavy storms and rain stick around.

Scattered heavy downpours and embedded thunderstorms have already begun to develop across the Hill Country, this activity is quickly moving off to the northeast into north central Texas where they are currently under a TORNADO WATCH until 8 p.m. CST. THE ONLY WATCH IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS RIGHT NOW IS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH…HOWEVER, THAT MAY CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

Latest forecast model guidance is indicating storm initiation along the I-35 corridor as early as 5 p.m. CST this evening…as it looks now, these storms will be capable of producing severe weather in the form of flash flooding, lightning, hail, gusty winds, and possibly an isolated tornado. REMEMBER, A THUNDERSTORM IS CONSIDERED TO BE SEVERE IF 1 INCH DIAMETER HAIL OR LARGER IS FALLING AND/OR THE STORM IS PRODUCING 58 MPH OR GREATER WINDS AND/OR A TORNADO IS PRESENT (CAN BE A RADAR INDICATED TORNADO).

***ALL IMAGES BELOW WERE PRODUCED BY THE HRRR MODEL MENTIONED ABOVE***

(THIS TENDS TO BE A RELIABLE MODEL, HOWEVER, PLEASE REMEMBER IT IS JUST A FORECAST TOOL AND GIVES US AN INDICATION AT WHAT CONDITIONS MAY BE LIKE LATER THIS EVENING)

FORECAST RADAR (5 P.M.)