Rain Chances Increasing

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

TGIF Everybody! Cold front that blew through here Wednesday evening has really ushered in some nice, cool Canadian Air into the region that will be sticking around with us through the weekend. Temperatures are in the 60s area wide. Lots of Pacific mid and high level moisture overrunning the cool air mass in place over our area as evidenced by the mostly cloudy to overcast conditions across the area. That mid to high level moisture is streaming over the area in advance of our next upper level storm system that will be shaking things up once again for us over the coming days. Especially as we head into Monday/Tuesday of next week as a strong surface cold front and the best upper level dynamics move across the state of Texas.

Weekend Outlook:

As upper air disturbances, or ripples, in the upper level west southwesterly wind flow (subtropical jet stream) cross the area over the weekend, showers and thundershowers will be possible across the area beginning as early as tomorrow (Saturday) in advance of this dynamic upper level Pacific storm system. Light northeast wind flow at the surface will keep the cool air mass over us now in place through Sunday…that will ensure a cloudy, cool, and at times wet weekend across south central Texas. The activity that develops tomorrow and Sunday will NOT be severe, however, some moderate downpours and some cloud to ground lightning cannot be ruled out. Highs this weekend likely to remain chilly in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area with lows generally in the 50s. It will be a good idea to keep the rain jacket and umbrella handy. 

Heavy Rainfall/Severe Weather Setup:

Southerly winds return to the area early Monday allowing Gulf of Mexico moisture to flood back into the area ahead of the main dynamics and cold front with our next approaching storm system. Given the dynamic nature of this next system, heavy rainfall and severe weather will both be a threat Monday and Tuesday of next week. Storms that develop late Monday into Tuesday will have the potential to become strong and/or severe with large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes. Of course, I will be watching the evolution of this system closely. As of right now, it looks like scattered showers and thundershowers will be possible during the day on Monday with the heaviest activity arriving late Monday into early Tuesday as the cold front crosses the area. It looks like a line of heavy showers and storms will develop along and immediately ahead of the front. If some stronger storms are able to develop out ahead of this forecast line of storms, those isolated storm cells will be the ones we need to watch closely for possibly producing a tornado or two. The biggest threats with a line of storms tends to be strong, gusty winds and small to medium sized hail. Of course, deadly cloud to ground lightning and heavy rainfall will be a threat from any storm that develops.

Forecast Model (Precipitation and sea level pressure) Map for early Tuesday...this particular model shows a line of heavy showers and storms moving across central and east Texas...pretty advanced map, but it does a good job of portraying what the situation may in fact look like on Tuesday morning 

Severe Weather Risk Areas:

The Storm Prediction has included south central Texas in the risk area for potential severe weather Monday/Tuesday of next week. We will be getting better details on this in the coming days. You can keep up with the latest severe weather outlooks created by the Storm Prediction Center by clicking HERE. The Storm Prediction Center really does a great job highlighting potential severe weather events days in advance and plays an integral role in keeping us safe on a daily basis.

Monday Severe Weather Risk (Yellow-shaded area)

Tuesday Severe Weather Risk (Yellow-shaded area)

Windy & Cooler Behind the Front

Behind the system, late Tuesday morning into early Tuesday afternoon a strong cold front looks to push into the area from the northwest and usher in some of the chilliest air we have so far this fall. This cold front will be preceded by a line of strong, potentially severe storms. Gusty northwest winds will usher in a much drier and cooler air mass into central Texas. This will set us up for cool afternoons in the 60s for the middle to end of next week with overnight lows dipping into the 40s area wide. Thursday morning is shaping up to be a chilly one with lows in the 30s possible across low-lying and out-lying areas of central Texas. Freezing temperatures should NOT be an issue with this particular front.

How much rain are we going to see?

It is difficult to pinpoint just how much rain this system is going to produce, however, it looks as we could be looking at a widespread 1-3 inches of rain across the area, with heaviest totals looking to come along and east of the IH-35 corridor, especially for areas north and east of south central Texas as evidenced in the Weather Prediction Center’s latest 5 day forecast rainfall accumulation map.

W.P.C. 5 Day Forecast Rainfall Accumulation:

We still have several days to watch the evolution of this system…remember, this is just a forecast and is subject to change and is likely to change slightly over the coming days. As always, please remember to heed all watches/warnings/advisories issued by the National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, etc.…

LET'S KEEP THOSE UMBRELLAS, RAIN BOOTS, AND RAIN JACKETS HANDY!

ON A GOOD NOTE, RECENT RECORD RAINFALL HAS PUT AN END TO THE AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...IT'S NICE TO SEE SO MUCH WHITE (A.K.A. DROUGHT-FREE) AREAS ON THIS MAP.

YELLOW AREAS = ABNORMALLY DRY 

BEIGE AREA = MODERATE DROUGHT