T.G.I.F. Everybody! Southerly winds have returned to the area in advance of tomorrow morning's cold front. Moisture levels are increasing across the area as evidenced by dew points in the 50s; this time yesterday, dew points were in the 40s. Dew points in the 60s have already made it as far north as the I-10 corridor. Southerly wind flow currently in place will abruptly come to an end tomorrow morning as the strongest cold front of the fall season thus far sweeps through the area.
>>>A few rain showers will be possible along and ahead of the front early Saturday morning. Any showers that do in fact develop Saturday morning will be light. No significant rainfall accumulation is expected. However, if travel plans are taking you to south Texas or the coastal plains tomorrow, you may have to contend with some more widespread rains during the morning to early afternoon hours as the front moves through those locations.
>>>Wintry precipitation (sleet, snow, freezing rain) will NOT be an issue with this cold front
>>>Latest forecast model guidance continues to indicate the front moving through south central Texas between the hours of 6-9 a.m. Saturday morning...you will know when the front arrives as winds will switch abruptly to the north, pick up in intensity, followed by a noticeable and quick drop in temperatures and moisture.
Cold Front's Forecast Position (7 a.m. Saturday Morning)>>>According to the high resolution NAM forecast model (click the image to make it larger)
Saturday's Forecast:
>>>Afternoon temperatures on Saturday will only manage the 50s behind the front. Areas north and west of Austin may stay in the upper 40s all afternoon. Add in a stiff north wind sustained between 15-25 mph (gusting higher than that) and there is definitely going to be a chill in the air. Sky conditions will start off cloudy on your Saturday and gradually become partly to mostly sunny by late morning into the afternoon hours. All of the area drops into the 30s Saturday night under a mostly clear sky; gusty north winds will be letting up by Saturday night. Locations north and west of the Austin Metro Area may receive a light freeze. Another very cold autumn night in store for ALL of south central Texas Sunday night as lows once again dip into the 30s; low-lying locations across ALL of south central Texas may receive a freeze (this includes low spots within the Austin Metro Area and points south and east).
Sunday's Forecast:
>>>High temperatures across the area on Sunday will only manage the 50s under a mainly sunny sky. Another very cold autumn night in store for ALL of south central Texas Sunday night as lows once again dip into the 30s; low-lying locations across ALL of south central Texas may receive a freeze (this includes low spots within the Austin Metro Area and points south and east).
Thanksgiving Week Outlook:
Warming trend ensues as early as Monday as light south southeasterly winds off of the Gulf return to the area. Southerly winds will effectively replenish low and mid level moisture across the area. As a powerful upper level storm system takes shape across the western United States, west, southwesterly winds at the upper levels of the atmosphere will strengthen and send Pacific moisture streaming across Mexico and into the atmosphere above Texas. Returning moisture at the surface and aloft over the area, combined with upper air disturbances, or ripples, in the subtropical jet (southwesterly wind flow) over the Lone Star State will effectively work together to bring rainfall chances back into the forecast for a majority of next week (including Thanksgiving).
>>>With all of that said, get ready for a balmy, cloudy, and potentially wet Thanksgiving week around here after Monday. The majority of the rainfall next week, looks to be light to moderate, but some heavier rains may be possible late Thanksgiving Day into Black Friday as what looks to be an Arctic Cold Front approaches and moves through the state early Black Friday morning.
Post Thanksgiving Day Arctic Blast Possible:
Per the latest long range forecast model guidance, this cold front looks to bring a widespread freeze to a good majority of south central Texas (including the Austin Metro Area). In addition to the threat of freezing temperatures, wintry precipitation MAY become an issue with this front for the weekend after Thanksgiving (as it looks right now, for areas north and west of Austin). There is still plenty of time to watch this weather system and a lot may change over the coming days and into next week, however, I felt it is important for you all to know and understand that there is the POTENTIAL for some very cold air and possible frozen precipitation next weekend. There is still plenty of time to watch this!
Long range forecast guidance from the Climate Prediction Center indicating below average temperatures across a good chunk of the central and western United States (including Texas) for the days/week following Thanksgiving...they are also indicating above average rainfall.
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