Veteran's Day Cold Front

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Good Monday afternoon folks! Hope you all had a wonderful weekend. I’m already tracking our next upper level storm system currently located across northern California…this system will be progressing eastward across the Rockies and eventually out into the Great Plains over the coming days…as it does so, this system will develop a surface low pressure system across eastern Colorado and kick a cold front through the area during the day on Wednesday. As surface pressure continues to drop across the front range of the Rockies in response to the approaching upper level storm system, winds will become southerly across the area, forcing the front that moved through the area on Friday, back north as a warm front. This will effectively move Gulf of Mexico moisture back into the area as early as early Tuesday afternoon. You will feel that moist air by tomorrow afternoon and especially into Wednesday morning ahead of the cold front.

Upper Level Storm System's Current Position and Upper Level Wind Flow over the lower 48 as of early Monday afternoon:

Wednesday Storm Threat:

As a cold front interacts with the Gulf moisture in place, there is a 30-40% chance for showers and thunderstorms across the area midday Wednesday into the early afternoon hours. Highs will manage the middle to upper 70s across the area on Wednesday ahead of the front. Storms that develop along the front will be moving quickly, so rainfall accumulation should not be significant (generally less than 0.25 inches)…the best chances of rain will generally come along and east of the Highway 281 corridor. The Storm Prediction Center has included portions of south central Texas, from the I-35 corridor eastbound in a MARGINAL RISK for severe weather...the strongest storms should remain well north and east of south central Texas, however, some brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and cloud to ground lightning cannot be ruled out. The best upper level dynamics with this storm system will be too far north of here for any significant severe weather. With that being said, I also believe the best chances for showers and storms will remain well to our north and east. We will also need to monitor the potential for a capping inversion across the area, that may effectively squash rain chances…a capping inversion, or more simply a cap, is a layer of warmer, drier air that sometimes develops across the area in the mid layers of the atmosphere. Underestimating the strength of the cap can really mess up a forecast.

Veteran's Day Severe Weather Risk Areas (Correlate colors on this map with the table below) 

WHAT IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER?

Isolated severe thunderstorms possible...limited in duration and/or coverage and/or intensity...storms may produce winds of 40-60 mph, and/or hail up to 1" in diameter, and/or an isolated tornado...check out the great graphic below from the Storm Prediction Center

BEHIND THE FRONT:

Clearing and breezy behind the cold frontal passage Wednesday afternoon and evening as a drier and cooler air mass returns to the area setting us up for a pleasantly cool and comfortable Thursday and Friday with highs in the 60s and 70s and lows in the 40s and 50s ahead of our next storm system and chance for rain over the upcoming weekend…more details on that storm system in the coming days…as it looks now, this upcoming weekend has the potential to be wet and chilly.