Good Wednesday Morning. Beautiful day in progress across the Lone Star State behind yesterday's cold front. As of 10 a.m. C.S.T. temperatures are ranging from the 40s across west Texas, 50s across north and central Texas, and 60s and lower 70s across the coastal plains and the Valley under sunny skies statewide. Highs this afternoon with abundant sunshine and dry air in place will rebound nicely into the lower 70s after a very chilly start to the day in the 30s and 40s. We officially bottomed out at 43°F this morning at Camp Mabry and 38°F at the airport.
Wednesday Morning Low Temperatures across central Texas (LCRA Hydromet Network)
>>>Beautiful fall weather will remain in place through Friday ahead of a strong cold front on Saturday. We can expect highs in the lower to middle 70s through Friday with overnight lows generally in the 40s and 50s across the area under mainly sunny/mostly clear skies<<<
Saturday's Cold Front
>>>According to the latest forecast model guidance, this looks to be the strongest front of the 2015 fall season thus far. The latest run of the GFS Model (also known as the American Model) has the cold front moving into the northwestern Hill Country early Saturday morning between 5-6 a.m. and crossing the I-35 corridor shortly thereafter between 6-9 a.m. and through the remainder of the area after that. The front should be completely through the state and into northern Mexico by mid to late afternoon. Some light rain showers may accompany the frontal passage early Saturday, but chances for significant rainfall are low. Rain along the front looks more likely for south Texas and the coastal plains. This looks to be a strong front and has the potential to drop temperatures into the 40s for a majority of the day Saturday...see the temperature timeline below according to the GFS Model.
Forecast Surface Map Conditions for Saturday morning across the lower 48 courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center...the blue line with forward-facing blue triangles over Texas is the cold front
BIG Temperature Drop/Temperature Timeline
>>>As mentioned earlier, this front will likely bring us the chilliest air of the fall season thus far. Latest forecast model guidance has us waking up to temperatures in the mid to upper 50s across the area early Saturday morning ahead of the front with some lower 60s from Austin south.
Saturday Temperature/Sky Condition/Wind Timeline (for Austin, TX)
6 a.m. >>> Upper 50s to lower 60s (cloudy with some light rain possible) Wind: N/NE 5-10 mph
Forecast Frontal Position
(Notice the dark blue colors pouring into the northwestern Hill Country and the orange arrows...that's the leading edge of the cold front)
9 a.m. >>>Cold Front has arrived! Temperatures quickly dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s behind the front on a strong and gusty north wind sustained temperatures already in the lower to middle 40s north and northwest of the Austin Metro Area...(cloudy with rain showers possible, however, showers that pop up would be quick-moving and light in nature) Wind: N 20-30 mph G35+ mph
Forecast Frontal Position
(Notice the blue shade has overspread the majority of the area and the arrows are yellow and orange and pointing south, signifying strong north winds)
Noon >>> Cloudy, cold, and windy with temperatures in the 40s area wide; Wind: N 20-25 mph G30+ mph (showers should be over)
3 p.m. >>> Cloudy, cold, and windy with temperatures in the 40s; Wind: N 15-25 mph G30+ mph
6 p.m. >>>Cloudy, cold, and windy with temperatures in the 40s; winds come down slightly, but still gusty; Wind: N 15-20 G25+mph
Mostly cloudy, cold and breezy night with lows dipping into the mid 30s to lower 40s across the area...a few spots across the extreme western and northern Hill Country may receive a light freeze
Forecast Lows Saturday Night (courtesy of Tropical Tidbits)
Sunday's Forecast and Beyond:
Sunday: >>>Cold start in the 30s and 40s will give way to a mostly cloudy and chilly afternoon with highs in the lower 50s
Monday: >>>looks like warmer and more humid Gulf Air moves back into the area with rain chances returning to the area.
>>>The Climate Prediction Center in their latest 6-10 day precipitation outlook forecasting above average rainfall across Texas next week
***Please know and understand that this is just a forecast and is likely to change to a degree over the coming days...the temperature timeline above for Saturday is simply a breakdown of what one particular computer model (the GFS), believes temperatures will look like on Saturday***
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