Forecast Discussion
Hello folks! Well, we did it again. We set two brand new record highs today in Austin at both Camp Mabry and the airport. The mercury soared to a record-smashing 83ºF at Camp Mabry beating the previous record high for this date of 77ºF last set in 1946. The mercury soared to a record-breaking 85ºF along the west runway at Austin Bergstrom International Airport beating their previous record high for this date of 77ºF last set in 1984. Breezy southwesterly winds helped temperatures soar today.
Cooler & Windy Thursday
A cold front is pushing through north and northwest Texas right now and will arrive in Austin overnight tonight. Cooler and WINDY conditions will settle in behind the front. Highs on Thursday are expected to be some 20-25 degrees cooler across the area in the upper 50s/lower to middle 60s. While temperatures will be significantly cooler, the windy weather this front is going to bring in its wake will be the big story. Sustained north northwest winds between 15-25 mph will be possible with gusts at time topping 35-40 mph. It is not going to be a good day for allergy sufferers.
Thursday Night & Friday
Lows drop into the 30s/40s Thursday night...freezing temperatures are not expected, but it will feel quite chilly (more like late December). Highs only rebound into the mid to upper 50s on Friday under a mainly cloudy sky as southerly winds override the cooler air at the surface as the southern branch of the jet stream becomes more active over the area.
Weekend/Next Week
Above normal temperatures quickly return for the New Year's Eve and New Year's Day with highs rebounding into the upper 60s/lower 70s across the area. Some spotty light rain will be possible during the day Saturday, but where it occurs it should not amount to much. Mid to upper 70s return by Monday and Tuesday of next week ahead of what looks to be our next Arctic cold front the middle of next week. More to come on that in future posts, but it looks like a much colder weather pattern will be developing across a large portion of the country. See the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 Day Temperature outlook below (valid January 3-7, 2016)
Wednesday, December 28, 2016
Tuesday, December 27, 2016
Unusual Warmth
Forecast Discussion
It goes without saying that it has been an unusually warm past several days across the area. Highs climbed into the upper 70s Christmas Eve, 80°F on Christmas Day, and a record-shattering 84°F yesterday. Check out the high temperature trend chart below. It's hard to believe a week ago we were coming off the heels of an Arctic Blast. That's winter in Texas for you!
Fog, Drizzle Possible Tonight
Despite the passage of a weak "cold" front early this morning, temperatures have still managed to climb into the 70s area wide. The front is washing out to our south and will return north as a warm front tonight, allowing moist southerly flow to return to the area. Widespread clouds, fog, and drizzle likely late tonight into Wednesday morning with mild overnight lows in the 60s. Some areas of dense fog may develop.
Thursday Cold Front
A stronger cold front is set to move through the region early Thursday morning, bringing with it gusty north winds and COOLER temperatures in its wake. Highs on Thursday behind the front should only manage the upper 50s in the coolest locations (northern/western zones) and low to mid 60s in the warmest locations (central/southern/eastern zones). Wind gusts of 25-35 mph will likely stir up the cedar pollen across the area resulting in a bad day for allergy sufferers. Temperatures drop into the 30s/40s Thursday night into Friday morning under a partly clear sky...freezing temperatures are NOT expected. Other than some drizzle or very light rain, the front is expected to move through the area without rain.
It goes without saying that it has been an unusually warm past several days across the area. Highs climbed into the upper 70s Christmas Eve, 80°F on Christmas Day, and a record-shattering 84°F yesterday. Check out the high temperature trend chart below. It's hard to believe a week ago we were coming off the heels of an Arctic Blast. That's winter in Texas for you!
Fog, Drizzle Possible Tonight
Despite the passage of a weak "cold" front early this morning, temperatures have still managed to climb into the 70s area wide. The front is washing out to our south and will return north as a warm front tonight, allowing moist southerly flow to return to the area. Widespread clouds, fog, and drizzle likely late tonight into Wednesday morning with mild overnight lows in the 60s. Some areas of dense fog may develop.
Thursday Cold Front
A stronger cold front is set to move through the region early Thursday morning, bringing with it gusty north winds and COOLER temperatures in its wake. Highs on Thursday behind the front should only manage the upper 50s in the coolest locations (northern/western zones) and low to mid 60s in the warmest locations (central/southern/eastern zones). Wind gusts of 25-35 mph will likely stir up the cedar pollen across the area resulting in a bad day for allergy sufferers. Temperatures drop into the 30s/40s Thursday night into Friday morning under a partly clear sky...freezing temperatures are NOT expected. Other than some drizzle or very light rain, the front is expected to move through the area without rain.
Friday, December 23, 2016
Spring-like Christmas
Forecast Discussion
Hello folks!
I hope you all are fans of cloudy, intermittently wet, and balmy conditions
because that’s the pattern we are going to be stuck in for the next 5-7 days.
Temperatures will be climbing well above average for this time of year thanks
to a warm, moist southerly wind flow off of the Gulf of Mexico. Average high/low for
this time of year in Austin is 63°F/42°F.
As of 3 p.m.
Friday afternoon, temperatures have climbed into the 60s and even lower 70s in
a few spots that have received a bit more in the way of sunshine. Southerly
winds will continue to increase over the coming days in response to a storm
system digging south across the western half of the nation. This storm system
will graze the area Christmas Day (Sunday) into Monday and may help to generate
some slightly higher rainfall opportunities across the area, especially as a
weak frontal boundary stalls near central Texas.
Highs will
rebound into the 70s area wide Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with overnight
lows staying quite mild in the 60s (that’s where high temperatures should be
for this time of year).
While
rainfall chances will be in the forecast for the next 5-7 days, the rain that
occurs will not be heavy and/or significant. The Weather Prediction Center’s
1-7 Day Accumulated Rainfall Graphic depicts anywhere from a quarter of an inch
to as much as an inch of rain to fall across the area between now and New Year’s
Eve.
The
Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service Forecast Office released some
interesting statistics yesterday,
High
temperatures on Christmas for Austin, TX are closer to 80°F than 32°F 60% of
the time (1900-2015)
High
temperatures on Christmas for San Antonio, TX are closer to 80°F than 32°F 76%
of the time (1900-2015)
Colder
Weather Possible around New Year’s Eve/Day
Long range
forecast models are indicating a return of winter temperatures just in time for
New Year’s Eve festivities. I will continue to monitor this trend for forecast model
consistency. Remember, despite the spring-like temperatures over the next week,
it is still winter.
Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to
all!
Friday, December 16, 2016
Polar Plunge
Forecast Discussion:
The much advertised Arctic cold front is a little over 24
hours away from arriving in Austin. A warm front has surged north all the way
into Oklahoma and has opened the door for mild and muggy Gulf Air to return as
evidenced by temperatures in the 60s/70s area wide (as of 4 p.m. CST Friday)
and dew points in the 50s/60s. Areas north and west of Austin that have not
been trapped under the clouds all day have warmed into the 70s and even 80s
across a large portion of west Texas and southwestern Oklahoma thanks to a
strong down sloping southerly wind feeding into an area of surface low pressure
over western Kansas and eastern Colorado that has developed in response to a
strong storm system currently digging south over the western United States.
As the upper level storm system currently out west
continues to track east, it will nudge the surface low over Kansas to the east
and open the door for the Arctic cold front to come plunging south into Texas.
Saturday Evening Arctic Front: Front arrives between 7-11 p.m. CST
Folks, this cold front means business! It will be
bringing a 50+ degree drop in temperatures within a 12 hour time period. It
will bring a near instant 15-20 degree drop in temperatures once it passes your
location. You will know when it arrives as winds will turn sharply out of the
north and gust between 25-35 mph. Those gusty winds will stay in place through
the night Saturday and into the day on Sunday before relaxing by Sunday
evening.
NAM 4 km Model Forecast Temperature Map: 9:00 p.m. CST Saturday (you don't have to know about weather to find this cold front!)
Forecast Breakdown:
NAM 4 km Model Forecast Temperature Map: 9:00 p.m. CST Saturday (you don't have to know about weather to find this cold front!)
Forecast Breakdown:
Tonight: 60s | mostly cloudy
& mild with patchy areas of fog and/or drizzle
Wind: SSW 5-15 mph
Saturday: 80°F | partly sunny
and breezy with near record warmth
Wind: SSW 10-15 mph
Saturday Night:
27°F | Arctic cold front arrives with gusty north winds & rapidly falling
temperatures. Wind chills drop into the teens by Sunday morning! Protect
exposed pipes and plants.
Wind: N 15-25 mph G 30-35 mph
Sunday: 38°F | Mostly sunny,
COLD, and windy (wind chills in the teens and 20s all day)
Wind: N 10-20 mph G 25-30 mph
Sunday Night:
24°F | Mostly clear & VERY COLD, area-wide hard freeze. Protect exposed
pipes and plants. Upper teens in low-lying, out-lying locations.
Wind: N 10-15 mph
Monday: 42°F | Mostly sunny
& cold; less windy
Wind: N 10-15 mph
Monday Night:
29°F | Mostly cloudy and cold, another freeze likely
Wind: NNE 5 mph
Tuesday, December 13, 2016
Ups and Downs
Forecast Discussion:
As of the noon update, the temperature in Austin at both Camp Mabry and the airport has soared to 73°F...a significantly colder air mass is sitting just to our north as evidenced by temperatures in the 40s and 50s from Waco north. That cooler air mass will slowly continue to sag south into our area this afternoon into the overnight hours allowing temperatures to drop back down into the 40s/50s tonight under partly clear skies.
Noon Surface Temperature Analysis:
Highs on Wednesday will be COOLER than today in the 60s ahead of another surge of cool air that will arrive late Wednesday night into early Thursday and allow for highs to drop even further on Thursday into the 50s under a mostly cloudy sky. Some light rain will be possible Thursday afternoon into early Friday, but the rain will not be significant and not accumulate to much.
Warm front surges north through the area on Friday in response to a strong storm system crossing the center of the country that will open the door for a strong Arctic cold front to blast through the area late Saturday. Highs ahead of the Arctic Front on Friday and Saturday will climb into the 70s on breezy/gusty southerly winds. There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the Arctic Front Saturday afternoon/evening (especially for areas along and east of the IH-35 corridor).
Saturday's Arctic Blast:
Folks, this front is going to mean business. It will drop highs on Saturday from the 70s into the 30s/40s for Sunday on a strong and gusty north wind. This cold air is not just stopping by for a day, it will be with us through the middle of Christmas week. At this point in time, wintry precipitation does NOT look to be a concern, but widespread freezing temperatures and potentially dangerous wind chills are likely to be. I believe all of central Texas needs to prepare for at least one if not two hard freezes by Sunday and/or Monday. Temperature trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days and more updates will be coming.
European Forecast Model Surface Temperature Analysis
(Saturday, 17 December 2016...6 p.m. CST)
European Forecast Model Surface Temperature Analysis
(Sunday, 18 December 2016...6 a.m. CST)
European Forecast Model Wind Chill Temperature Analysis
(Sunday, 18 December 2016...6 a.m. CST)
***Forecast Model Snapshots above are courtesy of WeatherBell Models***
As of the noon update, the temperature in Austin at both Camp Mabry and the airport has soared to 73°F...a significantly colder air mass is sitting just to our north as evidenced by temperatures in the 40s and 50s from Waco north. That cooler air mass will slowly continue to sag south into our area this afternoon into the overnight hours allowing temperatures to drop back down into the 40s/50s tonight under partly clear skies.
Noon Surface Temperature Analysis:
Highs on Wednesday will be COOLER than today in the 60s ahead of another surge of cool air that will arrive late Wednesday night into early Thursday and allow for highs to drop even further on Thursday into the 50s under a mostly cloudy sky. Some light rain will be possible Thursday afternoon into early Friday, but the rain will not be significant and not accumulate to much.
Warm front surges north through the area on Friday in response to a strong storm system crossing the center of the country that will open the door for a strong Arctic cold front to blast through the area late Saturday. Highs ahead of the Arctic Front on Friday and Saturday will climb into the 70s on breezy/gusty southerly winds. There will be a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of the Arctic Front Saturday afternoon/evening (especially for areas along and east of the IH-35 corridor).
Saturday's Arctic Blast:
Folks, this front is going to mean business. It will drop highs on Saturday from the 70s into the 30s/40s for Sunday on a strong and gusty north wind. This cold air is not just stopping by for a day, it will be with us through the middle of Christmas week. At this point in time, wintry precipitation does NOT look to be a concern, but widespread freezing temperatures and potentially dangerous wind chills are likely to be. I believe all of central Texas needs to prepare for at least one if not two hard freezes by Sunday and/or Monday. Temperature trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days and more updates will be coming.
European Forecast Model Surface Temperature Analysis
(Saturday, 17 December 2016...6 p.m. CST)
European Forecast Model Surface Temperature Analysis
(Sunday, 18 December 2016...6 a.m. CST)
European Forecast Model Wind Chill Temperature Analysis
(Sunday, 18 December 2016...6 a.m. CST)
***Forecast Model Snapshots above are courtesy of WeatherBell Models***
Monday, December 12, 2016
Roller Coaster Week
Forecast Discussion:
A weak cold front moved through the area during the early morning hours and helped to clear away the areas of dense fog we experienced across the area late last night and early this morning. Much drier air, as evidenced by dew points in the 40s, has also moved in behind the front. The front is washing out to our south. Afternoon highs under a mainly sunny sky will climb into the 60s. Lows tonight will drop back down into the 40s and 50s under a mainly clear sky. Areas of fog will be possible.
Afternoon highs on Tuesday will soar into the lower 70s under a partly cloudy sky. Another cold front will traverse the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday allowing for cooler conditions to settle back into the area for Wednesday and especially Thursday as stronger cold air advection (horizontal transport of air) occurs. Highs Wednesday drop back into the 60s, highs on Thursday drop back even further into the 50s. Thursday's chill will be brief as southerly winds quickly return by Friday ahead of a strong storm system that will be traversing from west to east across the center of the country. With the return of southerly winds highs will rebound into the 70s on Friday and Saturday ahead of a strong Arctic cold front that looks to arrive late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Some light rain showers and/or drizzle cannot be ruled out on Thursday/Friday as a weak overrunning pattern sets up over the area (warm, moist air being forced to rise up and over a cooler air mass at the surface).
Saturday night's cold front will have the potential to bring Austin its first official freeze of the season...temperature trends will need to continue to be monitored over the next several days.
Forecast Temperature Map for this coming Saturday at Noon across South Central U.S.
A weak cold front moved through the area during the early morning hours and helped to clear away the areas of dense fog we experienced across the area late last night and early this morning. Much drier air, as evidenced by dew points in the 40s, has also moved in behind the front. The front is washing out to our south. Afternoon highs under a mainly sunny sky will climb into the 60s. Lows tonight will drop back down into the 40s and 50s under a mainly clear sky. Areas of fog will be possible.
Afternoon highs on Tuesday will soar into the lower 70s under a partly cloudy sky. Another cold front will traverse the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday allowing for cooler conditions to settle back into the area for Wednesday and especially Thursday as stronger cold air advection (horizontal transport of air) occurs. Highs Wednesday drop back into the 60s, highs on Thursday drop back even further into the 50s. Thursday's chill will be brief as southerly winds quickly return by Friday ahead of a strong storm system that will be traversing from west to east across the center of the country. With the return of southerly winds highs will rebound into the 70s on Friday and Saturday ahead of a strong Arctic cold front that looks to arrive late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Some light rain showers and/or drizzle cannot be ruled out on Thursday/Friday as a weak overrunning pattern sets up over the area (warm, moist air being forced to rise up and over a cooler air mass at the surface).
Saturday night's cold front will have the potential to bring Austin its first official freeze of the season...temperature trends will need to continue to be monitored over the next several days.
Forecast Temperature Map for this coming Saturday at Noon across South Central U.S.
Monday, December 5, 2016
Rain Ending...Cold Coming
Rain coming to an end…
Good
Afternoon Folks! Our rainy stretch of weather is closing in on its final hours
as the upper level low pressure system responsible for the rain is beginning to
approach and move across south central Texas. Drier and more stable air will
filter into the area on the backside of this upper level low setting the stage
for clearing skies and some sunshine for your Tuesday.
Rainfall
Totals (as of 12:30pm Monday):
(National
Weather Service & LCRA Reporting Stations)
Travis
County
·
Camp Mabry | 2.49 inches
·
Austin Bergstrom International Airport |
3.01 inches
·
LCRA Redbud Center | 2.65 inches
·
Barton Creek at Loop 360 | 2.90 inches
·
Manor | 3.05 inches
·
Lakeway | 2.68 inches
·
Lago Vista | 2.11 inches
The
Hill Country received 1-3 inches of rain on average with the heaviest totals
falling across Gillespie County. Areas south and east of Austin received quite
a bit of rain as well with numerous locations receiving between 3-5 inches.
Bastrop County was the winner in terms of rainfall accumulation with 4-6
inches.
Arctic Cold Front (First of the Season)
Now
that the rain is beginning to come to an end across the area, our attention is
quickly shifting to a strong cold front that will be blowing through the area
late Wednesday night into the early morning hours of Thursday. This front is
bringing the coldest air of the season, so far! Highs expected to be in the 60s
on Tuesday, 50s/60s on Wednesday, but by Thursday highs will not get out of the
40s! Gusty north winds on Thursday behind the front will produce wind chills in
the 20s/30s all day long. There is a slight chance for some sprinkles/very
light rain on Thursday behind the front, and there’s even the chance for a
flurry or two across the northwestern Hill Country (no accumulation expected…very
low chance). Lows Thursday night into Friday will plummet into the 20s and
lower 30s area wide. We are likely to receive our first official freeze of the
season in Austin Thursday night/Friday morning.
Highs
Friday will once again struggle back into the 40s before a warming trend takes
us into the weekend with highs rebounding into the 50s on Saturday and close to
70°F by Sunday.
I
will continue to monitor the latest weather trends and update as necessary…
Saturday, December 3, 2016
Rain to continue...
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Rain,
heavy at times, will remain in the forecast for the remainder of the weekend
and into the first half of the day on Monday as the upper level storm system
currently located south of Arizona takes its time approaching the state of
Texas. This overrunning pattern, warm, moist air being forced to rise up and
over the cool air mass at the surface will continue for the remainder of the weekend
locking in the wet and chilly conditions. Overnight lows tonight will remain
steady in the upper 40s and lower 50s area wide with highs on Sunday struggling
to get out of the lower 50s area wide.
Rainfall
accumulation, so far, has been heaviest to the south of the Austin Metro Area.
Within the past 24 hours this is how much rain has fallen:
- Camp Mabry has received 1.17 inches of rain.
- Austin Bergstrom International Airport has received 1.48 inches of rain.
- Georgetown Municipal Airport has received 1.50 inches of rain.
- San Antonio International Airport has received 3.88 inches of rain.
***An additional 1-3 inches of rain will certainly be possible
by the time rains come to an end sometime Monday***
While
severe weather is not anticipated over the next couple of days, minor flooding
may become an issue in areas that typically see flooding concerns. Flooding
concerns look to be highest south and east of the Austin Metro. Lightning
cannot be ruled out within the heaviest of the rainfall activity as well as the
possibility for some sub-severe (small) hail.
***FLASH FLOOD WATCH for areas south & east of Austin***
With
that being noted, the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Forecast
Office has decided to issue a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for areas south and east of
Austin. This watch includes BANDERA, BASTROP, LEE, MEDINA, BEXAR, COMAL,
GUADALUPE, CALDWELL, FAYETTE, WILSON, GONZALES, AND LAVACA COUNTIES from 10pm
CST tonight through late Sunday evening. An additional 1-2 inches of rain with
isolated amounts of up to 4 inches of rain are possible in those locations.
ARCTIC COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY
Latest
forecast model guidance continues to indicate that some very cold Arctic Air
will be heading south into the lower 48 this coming week. As of right now, the
Arctic front looks to arrive in central Texas sometime during the day on
Wednesday. If models continue to verify, it looks like all of central Texas
will see freezing temperatures behind this front, even right in Austin.
Luckily, freezing precipitation does NOT look to be an issue with this
particular cold front.
Forecast
Lows Friday, December 9, 2016 [GFS Model]
Friday, December 2, 2016
Chilly, Wet Weekend Ahead
***WET, CHILLY
WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS***
An upper level area of low pressure
currently developing over the southwestern United States and northwestern
Mexico will slowly be pushing east towards Texas over the next several days. In
addition to creating lift, or rising air, over the area, the approaching upper
level low has already shifted mid and upper level winds out of the south and
southwest on top of the cool, northeasterly winds at the surface (where we
live, work, and play). This weather pattern is known as overrunning. Warmer,
moister southerly winds are being forced to ride up and over the cooler air
mass in place at the surface. This overrunning pattern is quite common across
south central Texas during the fall, winter, and spring seasons.
Latest forecast model guidance
continues to indicate that ALL locations across the area from the Hill Country
to the coastal plains will be receiving rain in the coming days. As of right
now, it appears that the heaviest rainfall totals will occur along and
especially east of the I-35 corridor. Latest forecast rainfall projections are
indicating as much as 2-4 inches of rain could fall over the next several days
(Friday-Monday) for areas along and east of I-35 with areas west of I-35
receiving 1-2 inches of rain. While heavy rainfall is certainly possible across
the area over the next several days, the majority of the rain will be in the
light to moderate category and spaced out over several days, therefore, flash
flooding does NOT appear to be a concern for the area. However, minor flooding
is certainly possible in flood prone areas/locations. If you have travel plans
to southeast Texas, rainfall accumulation has the potential to be higher in
those areas with some locations potentially receiving as much as 4-6 inches of
rain.
Thanks to
the clouds, rain, and northeasterly surface winds across the area, temperatures
will remain on the chilly side over the upcoming weekend with highs expected to
be in the 50s and lows in the 40s. Thankfully we will not have to worry about
any frozen precipitation. Temperatures will remain well above freezing.
The upper
level low is forecast to clear the area on Monday and set us up for clearing
conditions by Tuesday of next week ahead of a strong cold front that looks to
arrive on Wednesday. This front has the potential to bring Austin its first
official freeze of the season. More to come on that in future posts.
Bottom
line, keep the umbrellas and the rain jackets handy over the upcoming weekend
and drive safely and cautiously on area roadways.
Monday, November 28, 2016
Cooler Days Ahead
Forecast Discussion:
Pacific
cold front moved through the region this morning bringing with it gusty west
northwesterly winds and significantly drier air. Not a lot of chilly air behind
this front, but a front moving through the area tomorrow will bring in some
chillier weather for Wednesday-Friday of this week before a stronger cold front
and an upper level storm system bring some much colder weather into the area
for the upcoming weekend along with some good chances for widespread rainfall.
Highs may struggle to hit 50°F on Saturday.
Tonight:
49° | Mostly clear & chilly
Tuesday: 78° | Mostly sunny &
warm, cold front quietly slips through in the PM
Tuesday Night:
45° | Mostly clear & chilly with a north breeze
Wednesday: 65° | Sunny & cool
Wednesday Night: 39°
| Clear & cold (light freeze possible in out-lying and/or low-lying spots)
Thursday: 65° | Chilly start, mostly
sunny & cool afternoon
Thursday Night: 44°
| Partly cloudy & chilly
Friday: 63° | Mostly cloudy &
cool
Friday Night: 47°
| Cloudy with rain developing
Saturday: 50° | Chilly & Rainy (Pacific
Northwest type of day)
Saturday Night: 44°
| Chilly & Rainy
Sunday: 53° | Cloudy with showersMonday, November 21, 2016
Thunderstorm Risk Tuesday
Forecast Discussion:
After a chilly fall weekend, temperatures are quickly climbing back
into the 70s area wide on a breezy southerly wind. That breezy southerly wind
has developed in response to an approaching upper level trough of low pressure
to our west. Surface low pressure developing to our north and surface high
pressure shifting to our east are giving us the southerly winds. The return of
southerly winds has already allowed for surface dew points to rebound into the
upper 40s and 50s area wide compared to the 30s we saw over the weekend. The
dew point temperature is a direct indicator of the amount of moisture in our
air; the higher the dew point, the higher the moisture and vice versa.
Dew points will be soaring into the 60s by Tuesday morning making
things feel noticeably more uncomfortable.
Severe Weather Risk Tuesday/Tuesday Evening:
Increasing moisture, an approaching upper level trough, and a surface
cold front will work together to bring us a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday, especially Tuesday evening. In fact,
the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in the SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY
for severe weather Tuesday evening. The biggest risk from the storms that develop
will be strong, gusty winds.
Behind the storms, a cooler and drier air miss will move back into
the area and set us up for several pleasant weather days and what looks to be a
very comfortable Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 60s to near 70°F across the
area and lows in the 40s.
Severe Weather Risk Area:
Long range forecast models are indicating a potential shift to a
colder weather pattern by the end of the month and into December.
We still have plenty of time to monitor that.
Monday, November 14, 2016
Cold Front Friday
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
The beautiful weather we experienced over the weekend is set
to continue for the majority of this week. Drier air moving in at the mid and
upper levels of the atmosphere this afternoon and a building ridge of high
pressure will result in a stretch of sunny and well above normal conditions
through Thursday. Friday will be a transition day to cooler than normal weather
for the upcoming weekend with the arrival of a strong cold front. Our next shot
at rainfall arrives on Friday with the cold front.
November Climate Data: (Austin-Camp Mabry)
Average High: 71°F
Average Low: 51°F
Average monthly temperature (highs
& lows combined): 61°F
Average Precipitation: 2.96 inches
Well Above Normal Temperatures:
Dry air and a building ridge of high pressure will give us a stretch of well above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs will be in the 80s Tuesday-Thursday. While it will be warmer than "normal" for this time of year, record highs do not look to be in jeopardy.
Current Record Highs: TEMP | YEAR SET
Tuesday: 90° | 1951
Wednesday: 87° | 1938
Thursday: 86° | 1938
Drought Update:
The latest drought monitor, released last Thursday, November,
8th, shows that we are in pretty good shape across the area. Last
week’s welcome and much-needed rain helped to temporarily ease drought
conditions across the area. Much of the area is considered to be drought-free
(indicated by white shading). Yellow areas represent abnormally dry conditions.
Tan areas represent moderate drought. Orange areas represent severe drought.
Friday’s Cold Front | Significantly COOLER
Weekend:
As of right now, the front is looking to arrive during the late
morning/early afternoon hours. As mentioned above, there will be a chance for
scattered showers and thunderstorms as the cold front crosses the area. No
severe and/or hazardous weather is expected at this time. A sharp wind shift to
the north behind the front will usher in a significantly cooler & drier Canadian
air mass into the state. This cooler air mass will keep highs in the mid to
upper 60s over the weekend with lows in the 30s and 40s. It’s really going to
feel like fall! Most locations will escape a light freeze this time, but some
of the lowest-lying valleys across the area may receive a light freeze.
Temperatures will stay well above freezing in Austin. A warming trend will then
take us into Thanksgiving week.
SEVEN DAY FORECAST GRAPHIC:
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