tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5122702303532602922024-03-19T18:17:40.818-05:00Michael's Weather BlogUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger229125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-13828337490076383302020-01-09T17:48:00.001-06:002020-01-09T17:48:26.710-06:00Friday Severe Threat<br />
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<b><span style="font-family: "roboto";">Weather Set Up<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";">A potent and far southward-digging upper level storm system (trough of low pressure) and its attendant surface cold front will approach and move across the state of Texas on Friday. Ahead of this strong storm system, strong south southeasterly winds have developed. Those winds off of the Gulf of Mexico are pumping in lots of Gulf of Mexico moisture for the approaching storm system to work with to generate thunderstorms, some of which are likely to be strong/severe, Friday afternoon/evening/night across central, south central, north, southeast and east Texas. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";"><b>Threat Level by City</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";">Austin Threat Level: <b>Enhanced</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";">San Antonio Threat Level: <b>Slight</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";">Houston Threat Level: <b>Enhanced<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";">Dallas/Fort Worth Threat
Level: <b>Enhanced<o:p></o:p></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";"><b>Central Texas Severe Outlook</b></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: x-small;">Graphic courtesy of Meteorologist Avery Tomasco at CBS Austin News</span></b></div>
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<b style="font-family: Roboto;">Texas Severe Outlook</b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "roboto";">What does an enhanced
risk of severe storms mean? Let’s take a look – plus I've added our threat levels for Friday's forecast</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto"; line-height: 107%;">Numerous severe storms <i>possible</i>.
The severe storms that develop will be more persistent and/or widespread and a
few may be intense<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "symbol"; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "roboto"; line-height: 107%;">A few tornadoes possible – <span style="background-color: lime;">LOW THREAT</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto"; line-height: 107%;">Several reports of wind damage –
<span style="background-color: orange;">MODERATE THREAT</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "symbol"; line-height: 107%;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;"><span style="font-family: "times new roman"; font-stretch: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span></span><!--[endif]--><span dir="LTR"></span><span style="font-family: "roboto"; line-height: 107%;">Damaging hail 1-2 inches in
diameter – <span style="background-color: lime;">LOW THREAT</span><i style="font-size: 10pt;"><o:p></o:p></i></span></div>
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***Widespread severe weather is <b>NOT</b> expected, however, there is the potential for some areas to receive some severe weather</div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "roboto";">Friday Weather Timeline<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";">As it looks right now,
passing showers and perhaps a thundershower will be possible Friday morning through
early afternoon across central Texas (I think a lot of that activity will be limited by a layer of warmer air aloft) with the more organized activity developing
late afternoon into Friday evening along and just west of the I-35 corridor as
the main upper level energy and a cold front begin to move in. Based on the latest
high resolution forecast model data, it appears that there is the potential for a rapidly developing
squall line (line of thunderstorms) to initiate along and possibly just west of
the I-35 corridor between 4-8 p.m. CST Friday evening. The greatest severe
threat from these developing storms will be damaging winds in excess of 60-75 mph. Once this line of storms initiates, it
will continue to march east with the cold front and upper level storm system. The severe threat looks to ramp up once the line of storms pushes east of the I-35 corridor.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";"><b>Tornadoes??</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto";">There is a <b>low-end</b> tornado
threat across the area tomorrow evening, however, <b style="background-color: yellow;">the best dynamics for tornadoes appears to remain east and especially well to the northeast of the I-35 corridor into east
Texas and northeast Texas (red shaded area on the Texas map above).</b> Damaging wind gusts still appear to be the biggest
threat from storms that develop locally. Additionally, all storms that develop
will have the potential to produce brief heavy downpours and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";">I do need to mention that
if the forecast line of storms remains broken (rain free areas in between the
forecast line of storms) and if isolated storms are able to develop ahead of
the forecast line of storms, those discrete thunderstorm cells will have the
best potential to rotate and <b>perhaps</b> produce a tornado. <b>This will need to be
watched closely and it is by no means likely or a sure thing. </b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";">Along with all that I’ve
mentioned above, it’s possible that we only see garden variety showers and
storms in Austin with the worst of the weather potentially staying off to our east.<o:p></o:p></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";"><b>Rainfall Accumulation</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: "roboto";">A quick 0.5-1.5 inches of rain will be possible...some may receive more and some may receive less. Rainfall is very welcome at this time and flash flooding does NOT look to be an issue on Friday.</span></div>
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<b><span style="color: #c00000; font-family: "roboto";">With all
that noted, we will all need to remain weather aware Friday afternoon/evening.
With the potential for severe weather, it is always a good idea to turn on
emergency alert notifications on your cell phone.<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "roboto";">How to enable emergency alerts on </span><span style="font-family: "roboto";">iPhone</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";">Open settings </span><span style="font-family: "wingdings"; mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span></span><span style="font-family: "roboto";"> notifications </span><span style="font-family: "wingdings"; mso-ascii-font-family: Roboto; mso-char-type: symbol; mso-hansi-font-family: Roboto; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;"><span style="mso-char-type: symbol; mso-symbol-font-family: Wingdings;">à</span></span><span style="font-family: "roboto";"> scroll down to the
bottom of notifications tab to where it says “Government Alerts” and turn on “Emergency
Alerts”<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";">Should and if a tornado or
flash flood warning were to be issued, you would receive notification on your
phone</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: "roboto";">What to Expect behind
the Storms & the Weekend <o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";">Behind the line of storms,
lingering showers and thundershowers may persist for 2-3 hours before
conditions rapidly clear from west to east behind the storm system as a much
drier and cooler air mass infiltrates the region.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";">Highs Saturday despite a
sunny sky will only manage the 50s to lower 60s (near normal for this time of
year) with a breezy northwest wind. As winds relax Saturday evening under a
clear sky, temperatures will plummet into the 20s to middle 30s across the area
by early Sunday morning. Low-lying, out-lying locations will likely receive a
freeze with areas like downtown Austin staying a few degrees above 32°F.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "roboto";">Sunny and near perfect
conditions expected for your Sunday with highs rebounding into the lower 60s
under a mainly sunny sky. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-71365154468748948372019-12-09T16:19:00.002-06:002019-12-09T16:19:45.461-06:00BIG Temperature Drop & Rain Tomorrow<h3>
Record Warmth ahead of Strong Cold Front</h3>
As of 3pm, temperatures have soared into the upper 70s and lower 80s across central Texas in advance of a strong cold front that will bring a temperature shock by the time we wake up Tuesday morning. Both Austin's Camp Mabry and Austin Bergstrom International Airport have tied (and possibly broken) their record highs for this date both at 81°F.<br />
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Where is the Front Now?</h3>
While this front is going to be bringing a significant drop in temperatures, the really cold air is lagging well behind the leading edge, or wind shift line. The leading edge of this modified Arctic Air has already pushed through the Dallas Metroplex and and is currently located in the extreme northwestern Hill Country. Temperatures behind the front have cooled into the 50s and 60s while areas out ahead of the front are still mild in the 70s and 80s.<br />
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3:45 PM Temperature Analysis (state of Texas)</h3>
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The cold front will move through the I-35 corridor later this evening and bring with it the possibility for some rain, but the better rain chances for widespread more persistent rain will hold off until late tonight into Tuesday morning as an upper level disturbance moves across the state from west to east and generates lift in our atmosphere. The energy with this disturbance will create the widespread rain we are expecting for tomorrow morning into the early afternoon hours. The progressive, or fast-moving, nature of this disturbance will help to quickly dry us out by late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as the coldest temperatures begin settling into central Texas, but not before giving us on average a quarter to as much as half an inch of rainfall in spots (we will take every drop!).<br />
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What to Expect on Tuesday?</h3>
Significantly colder conditions & rain! Some 40 degrees colder than today! You won't want to walk out the door Tuesday morning without a jacket and an umbrella because you will want both! Temperatures on Tuesday will stay in the 40s all day with breezy north winds and rain making it feel even colder in the 30s. Rain, mainly light with some pockets of moderate to isolated pockets of heavy rain will develop overnight tonight and persist through 2-3pm Tuesday afternoon before conditions begin to clear by late afternoon into the evening.Air temperatures will drop into the 30s late Tuesday into Wednesday morning and drop to near or below the freezing mark by Wednesday morning. Luckily for us, conditions are expected to be dry by the time temperatures near the freezing mark.<br />
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Beyond Tuesday</h3>
After a cold start to the day on Wednesday, afternoon highs under sunny skies will rebound nicely into the 50s, but those clear skies will allow for another chilly night Wednesday night with temperatures dipping into the 30s (light freeze for out-lying, low-lying locations) and warming back into the 50s for Thursday afternoon under a mostly sunny sky. Temperatures continue to moderate into the weekend with highs returning quickly into the 60s and 70s with the return of southerly winds and mostly sunny/mostly clear skies. <br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-50298816747920334282019-10-29T17:26:00.001-05:002019-10-29T17:26:50.118-05:00Unseasonably Cold Weather & Rain Chances<br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Forecast
Discussion</span></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">A shallow wedge of cold
air snuck into the area yesterday evening and has left us with a cloudy,
chilly, and dreary day with temperatures ranging from as cold as the 40s to as
warm as the lower 60s across the area. Light and patchy areas of rain, mist,
and drizzle will continue through the evening before increasing in coverage and
intensity overnight and into the day on Wednesday ahead of a strong upper level
low pressure system that will send a second, more significant push of colder
air into the area Wednesday afternoon. Highs on Wednesday will occur early in
the day with falling temperatures expected into the afternoon and evening
thanks to gusty northerly winds. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b>Tuesday 5pm Temperatures across the state </b></div>
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(check out the spread between Amarillo and South Texas)</div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Severe Threat???</span></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The Storm Prediction
Center has placed the majority of the area under the MARGINAL RISK category for
potential severe weather on Wednesday. What does that mean? It means an
isolated storm or two has the potential to briefly become severe and produce damaging
winds in excess of 58 mph. The majority of the storms that develop over the
next 24-36 hours will be non-severe, but a few may be strong. All storms will
pose a risk from brief locally heavy rainfall and dangerous cloud to ground
lightning. On average, an additional 0.25 to 1 inch of rain will be possible
across the area between now and tomorrow evening with some areas potentially
receiving a little more from scattered strong downpours/thunderstorms. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Marginal Risk Area (dark green shading)</b></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Unseasonably Cold Air</span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Freeze likely for many
early Thursday (Halloween) Morning with even more locations dipping to near and
below the freezing mark on Friday morning under clear and calm conditions. The average high/low for this time of year in Austin is 78/57. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">What to Expect for the Rest of the Week</span></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">You’ll need a jacket
and an umbrella as you head out the door on Wednesday…by Wednesday evening,
showers and storms will begin to come to an end as drier and much colder air
moves into the region on gusty north winds. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Halloween (Thursday)
Morning we will wake up to temperatures in the 30s area wide (some spots at the
freezing mark north and west of Austin) with wind chills in the 20s to lower
30s area wide. Despite sunny skies on Thursday, temperatures will struggle into
the 50s thanks north winds streaming in cold air across the area. Thursday
night as winds go calm and skies are clear, temperatures are expected to dip
into the upper 20s in the coldest spots to mid-30s in the warmest spots (i.e.
downtown Austin). A gradual warming trend takes us into the upcoming Formula
One weekend with sunny skies, highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s/40s. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Forecast Wind Chills Thursday morning (NAM Model)</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7zsCdDnEMgwNf7iDtgfmg8TRYdWXQejuhO5UP-pbrNuLr1TqQhMoY7ny2kShC1q3t5D-zJ3kmhKNyL2QdtcnK_CK-4LKxY5gbtob2csPQOsm2AWxJEECNZwTvlijOeQXj9LEADv7d/s1600/nam-nest-conus-austin-apparent_temperature_f-2523200.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg7zsCdDnEMgwNf7iDtgfmg8TRYdWXQejuhO5UP-pbrNuLr1TqQhMoY7ny2kShC1q3t5D-zJ3kmhKNyL2QdtcnK_CK-4LKxY5gbtob2csPQOsm2AWxJEECNZwTvlijOeQXj9LEADv7d/s640/nam-nest-conus-austin-apparent_temperature_f-2523200.png" width="640" /></a></b></span></div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-22221307663414254392019-10-24T17:17:00.001-05:002019-10-24T17:17:23.284-05:00Showers & Storms Ahead of Strong Cold Front <br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Good Afternoon,
folks!</span></b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Warm and balmy
conditions in the 80s right now will shortly be a thing of the past. A strong
fall cold front is currently positioned west of the IH-35 corridor along a line
from southeast Oklahoma through the Dallas Metroplex and into the northwestern
Hill Country. Along and immediately behind the frontal boundary, heavy showers
and isolated thunderstorms have developed. To give you an idea of the strength
of this cold front, as of 4pm, it is 82°F at Austin’s Camp Mabry and 50°F in
Brady, TX (northwestern Hill Country). Farther to the northwest it is 31°F and
snowing in Amarillo.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Temperatures across Central Texas as of 4:15 p.m. CDT Thursday</b> (24 Oct 2019)</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEHGaIQmQZPtPuNk7rR0J5l8_dT6CCrEMKrAA8GdU3ttu2Fy3f0TZ9CpLevAYxihUiILonNJR5X43d1P-GQAAclgQxO8THhQBIsCL60yfaEV42knWMtcEPYfRadVTq44gjHgBKM9zx/s1600/Cold+front.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="998" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhEHGaIQmQZPtPuNk7rR0J5l8_dT6CCrEMKrAA8GdU3ttu2Fy3f0TZ9CpLevAYxihUiILonNJR5X43d1P-GQAAclgQxO8THhQBIsCL60yfaEV42knWMtcEPYfRadVTq44gjHgBKM9zx/s640/Cold+front.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><span style="font-size: large;">Weather Setup</span></b> </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">A potent upper
level low pressure system moving into the area from the northwest is pushing a
strong cold front southeast through the state of Texas this afternoon. Ahead of
the front, warm and humid conditions have developed (temperatures in the 70s,
80s and even 90s in south Texas), compared to 30s, 40s, and 50s behind the
front.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><b>Severe Risk?</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The Storm
Prediction Center has placed all of central, north central and south central
Texas under the Marginal risk category for potential severe thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening. By no means does this mean that widespread severe
weather is going to occur, rather it means that an isolated storm or two has
the potential to become briefly severe and produce hail up to the size of
quarters along with isolated wind gusts in excess of 58mph. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">As the front
traverses the area from northwest to southeast through the evening, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase and persist into the wee hours of Friday
morning with rain chances coming to an end across the area (from west to east)
before sunrise Friday morning.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Marginal Risk for Isolated Severe Storms</b> (dark green shaded area)</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3Dz4yVQINVaM6UsxidKvZYk2gd1a3B2Op-ggbUJPwSuysONiCfEs1haLMYxGCettLtcwlRyVJ49hyphenhyphenCFeb1OM0PmqaQ3KRZKbb5qEIWU4C6ntyWC935Q5xp8oe4NCRGTMAkadHEJxn/s1600/TX_swody1.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1000" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3Dz4yVQINVaM6UsxidKvZYk2gd1a3B2Op-ggbUJPwSuysONiCfEs1haLMYxGCettLtcwlRyVJ49hyphenhyphenCFeb1OM0PmqaQ3KRZKbb5qEIWU4C6ntyWC935Q5xp8oe4NCRGTMAkadHEJxn/s640/TX_swody1.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><b>Rainfall Accumulation</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Forecast
rainfall accumulation may exceed as much as 1-2 inches in some locations from
this rain event, but it appears that the majority of the area (especially west
of Austin) may receive less than 0.50 inches. High resolution forecast models
continue to indicate the possibility of greater than an inch of rain falling
for portions of the IH-35 corridor and points east. We will take every drop
given the severe to extreme drought ongoing across the area. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><b>What can we expect on Friday/Saturday??</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Sharply colder
and windier weather will push in behind the front for Friday with all of the
area experiencing temperatures in the 40s (mid to upper 40s along and east of
the Interstate and upper 30s to lower 40s across the Hill Country) with wind
chills in the 30s to lower 40s across the majority of the area. Despite
clearing skies on Friday, strong north winds will only allow for temperatures
to recover in the 50s and lower 60s (south of Austin) on Friday afternoon.
Those strong north winds will continue to transport cold air into the area from
the north. Everyone drops back down into the 40s Friday night/Saturday morning
with temperatures expected to rebound nicely Saturday afternoon with plenty of
sunshine into the 60s to lower 70s across the area. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Forecast Wind Chills 9 a.m. Friday Oct 25 2019</b> (HRRR Model)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">This is what it will feel like when you combine air temperature and wind speed</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFcFfdxXMq01bp0jED-HZc6-ChplTJ-8X_cp_-LHtZg8yceWZKpKUCyUw7krcYG-n-XYo28jX8YAg6ImYm-3pVIruTps9jajokvIztPH1pfD6JeIMynMcHl-ByBtV29n6PojfRrDMS/s1600/hrrr-austin-apparent_temperature_f-2012000.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFcFfdxXMq01bp0jED-HZc6-ChplTJ-8X_cp_-LHtZg8yceWZKpKUCyUw7krcYG-n-XYo28jX8YAg6ImYm-3pVIruTps9jajokvIztPH1pfD6JeIMynMcHl-ByBtV29n6PojfRrDMS/s640/hrrr-austin-apparent_temperature_f-2012000.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><i><span style="font-size: large;">WIND
ADVISORY</span></i></b> in effect
for all of central Texas from 7 p.m. Thursday evening through 4 p.m. Friday afternoon.
Sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts in excess of 35-40 mph will be possible
across the area behind a strong cold front. Gusty winds could blow around
unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may
result. Travel could be difficult for high profile vehicles on east to west
oriented roads.</span><span style="font-family: Lato, sans-serif;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-73027050333901383502019-10-10T19:18:00.002-05:002019-10-10T19:18:28.756-05:00Summer to winter within 24 hours<br />
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<span style="font-size: 18.6667px;"><b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Record Heat Today ahead of STRONG cold front</span></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Good Evening, Folks!<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">What a roller coaster
ride this week has been so far. We approached the top of the roller coaster
today with a new record high temperature of 99°F at Austin’s Camp Mabry beating
the previous record of 97°F set back in 1926. Austin Bergstrom International Airport
also crushed their previous record high of 93°F set back in 2014 by 4 degrees
coming in at 97°F this afternoon.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Today’s summer-like
heat is about to take a big drop for our Friday as an unseasonably strong cold
front sweeps through the area early tomorrow morning. </span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">Current Temperatures across the southern Plains (as of 6:45 pm Thursday)</span></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9jtgzcq7NYm4djTTevrkRIcVXSe3Iq8Z5kxoO60nZD0JrV3q3_lUI0Qd6hkS_my7AgmR1eIE79LZtQAoEXnnQfBvF9_mY5SeR5HYNS6eGQlWCvPuP8tgrF1IkaYc_ICyRjARxQWiR/s1600/rtma-scentus-t2m_f-0751100.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="808" data-original-width="984" height="524" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9jtgzcq7NYm4djTTevrkRIcVXSe3Iq8Z5kxoO60nZD0JrV3q3_lUI0Qd6hkS_my7AgmR1eIE79LZtQAoEXnnQfBvF9_mY5SeR5HYNS6eGQlWCvPuP8tgrF1IkaYc_ICyRjARxQWiR/s640/rtma-scentus-t2m_f-0751100.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The leading edge of the
colder air is currently approaching the I-20 corridor in northwest Texas and
has prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
for portions of north and north central Texas, including the DFW Metroplex,
until 1:00 AM CDT Friday. The biggest threats from the storms that develop in
those areas this evening and early Friday morning will be scattered large hail
and isolated very large hail events up to 2 inches in diameter along with
scattered damaging winds gusts to 70 mph. By the time those storms reach
central Texas early Friday morning, the storms should be below severe levels,
but one or two strong storms cannot be ruled out (especially north and west of
Austin).</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Severe Thunderstorm Watch<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Counties shaded in
yellow on the map below are included in the SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until
1:00 AM CDT Friday…a watch means conditions are favorable for the development
of severe weather…a warning means severe weather is imminent and/or occurring
and that it is time to seek shelter</span><span style="font-family: Montserrat;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 14pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Cold Front Timeline<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">According to high
resolution forecast model data, the front will be moving into the far
northwestern Hill Country between midnight and 1 a.m. with showers and
thunderstorms and moving into the Austin Metro Area between 3:30-4:30 a.m.
Friday morning with gusty winds, scattered showers and thunderstorms and
rapidly falling temperatures. By 7 a.m. the leading edge of the cold front will
be south of San Antonio and pushing south southeast towards the extreme
northwest portions of the Houston Metro Area. Rain may stick around behind the
front through noon Friday. High temperatures Friday will occur early Friday
morning and drop drastically behind the front into the 40s and 50s across the
area. Afternoon highs on Friday will struggle to rebound into the mid to upper
50s in Austin with cloudy skies, rain showers (in the morning), and gusty north
winds will make it feel like it’s in the 40s! <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">1:00 a.m. Friday
(forecast radar/forecast surface temperatures)</span></b><span style="font-family: Montserrat;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">4:00 a.m. Friday (forecast
radar/forecast surface temperatures)</span><span style="font-family: Montserrat;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">7:00 a.m. Friday (forecast
radar/forecast surface temperatures)</span><span style="font-family: Montserrat;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGWVSShE7o9kyzVY9H6O1eaE91YJUdXdUgDudOxJWBviynvojPn27827AOXX5rrs1_m3nmqva0eXS8oZsZ4UZmhH5qDCLsTtXbdv2aRy0UOXxMTPQJ2fslYL1E_S0gNhk_JFFcAFQT/s1600/7am.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1199" data-original-width="1592" height="482" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgGWVSShE7o9kyzVY9H6O1eaE91YJUdXdUgDudOxJWBviynvojPn27827AOXX5rrs1_m3nmqva0eXS8oZsZ4UZmhH5qDCLsTtXbdv2aRy0UOXxMTPQJ2fslYL1E_S0gNhk_JFFcAFQT/s640/7am.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">9:00 a.m. Friday (forecast
radar/forecast surface temperatures)</span></b><span style="font-family: Montserrat;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-58830747869435552072019-10-06T19:52:00.002-05:002019-10-06T19:54:08.272-05:00Roller Coaster Temperatures<span style="font-family: inherit;">After setting a record breaking high of 99ºF this afternoon, beating the previous record of 98ºF set all the way back in 1912, relief is on the way. The leading edge of our first fall cold front is currently pushing through northwest Texas and is already dropping temperatures into the 60s across Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Ahead of the front scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across northwest Texas and are beginning to push south into portions of the northwestern Hill Country on this Sunday evening.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Temperatures as of 7pm Sunday Evening</b> (courtesy of Wright-Weather) </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">The much anticipated cold front will arrive in Austin around midnight. There is the possibility for a shower or brief storm to accompany the frontal passage, but the best chance for rain will remain north and west of Austin. Breezy northerly winds behind the front will usher in the coolest air we have seen since early May. We will wake up to temperatures in the 60s area wide with afternoon highs only managing the 70s for most locations, lower 80s for some, on Monday afternoon. Temperatures early Tuesday morning will be able to drop even further into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area before temperatures begin to quickly heat up by mid-week back into the 90s, record territory, ahead of a second stronger cold front that will approach the area late Thursday evening and arrive early Friday. This front looks to bring an even more significant and longer lasting cool down along with a slightly better chance for precipitation. Afternoon highs in the 60s will be possible on Friday with a gusty north wind, clouds and rain showers making it feel even colder with overnight lows dropping into the 50s by Saturday morning with afternoon highs remaining quite comfortable in the 70s for next weekend and morning lows in the 40s and 50s. Ahhhh!! We definitely deserve that! </span></div>
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While these fronts will be bringing us some heat relief, unfortunately they do not look to bring us widespread, significant rainfall to relieve ongoing drought conditions across the area. Many areas across the state have slipped into severe to extreme drought conditions. </div>
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<b>Latest Drought Monitor</b> (as of October 3rd)<br />
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-31713761103293453042019-04-23T17:22:00.001-05:002019-04-23T17:22:19.595-05:00Flash Flood Watch/Severe Weather RiskHello, folks! The fourth storm system this month has its eyes set on Texas and we're already feeling its effects. The upper level low is currently located in northern Mexico south of Arizona and is pushing disturbances across the state of Texas out ahead of it. These disturbances generate lift in our atmosphere. That lift helps to promote the development of showers and thunderstorms.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Image above courtesy of earth wind map and is depicting upper level winds over Mexico and the United States</span></div>
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Gulf moisture has already made a big return to the area as of Wednesday afternoon as evidenced by dew point temperatures in the upper 60s. At the surface a cold front is currently draped along the I-20 corridor across West Texas and is the focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Yellow shaded area north west of south central Texas is under a SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH until 11pm CDT this evening. The storms outlined in red boxes are severe.<br />
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<b>Texas Radar Update as of 5:20 pm CDT Tuesday evening</b><br />
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<b>What should we expect in central Texas?</b><br />
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<b>This evening/overnight:</b>Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will remain well to the north and west of our region tonight. A few thunderstorms may try and creep into northwestern areas of the Hill Country, but the storms will hold off for the I-35 corridor until Wednesday and especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. With that being said, a brief passing shower or downpour cannot be ruled out overnight and early Wednesday morning. Lows tonight will only manage the 60s area wide thanks to a persistent moist southerly breeze off of the Gulf of Mexico.<br />
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<b>Wednesday Morning: </b>Showers and storms may be ongoing across portions of the northwestern Hill Country and a large portion of west Texas slowly spreading south and east into the Hill Country during the early afternoon hours.<br />
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<b>Wednesday afternoon/evening: </b>Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to pop up along the I-35 corridor, becoming more widespread as a line of storms develops across the Hill Country and pushes slowly east through the I-35 corridor during the early evening hours. This is when the worst of the storms are expected in Austin/IH-35 corridor. In addition to the threat of locally heavy rainfall and dangerous cloud to ground lightning, the Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, Oklahoma has placed a large swath of central, south central, south, and southeast Texas under a <b>SLIGHT RISK </b>area for potential severe weather on Wednesday. This is a threat level 2 out of 5 and indicates that scattered severe storms will be possible, but the severe storms that develop will be short-lived and/or not widespread; however, an isolated intense storm or two is possible.<br />
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<b>Forecast Radar Graphic</b> (this is what one model believes the radar will look like at different times of the day on Wednesday)<br />
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<b>Wednesday Severe Weather Threats</b><br />
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<b>Flash Flood Watch (counties shaded in green)</b><br />
in effect for the following counties: Travis, Williamson, Hays, Burnet, Blanco, Llano, and Gillespie from 7 am CDT Wednesday until midnight Thursday. Widespread amounts of 2-4 inches of rain will be possible in these locations with isolated higher amounts of up to 6 inches possible.<br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">Images above courtesy of the Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service Forecast Office</span></div>
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Please remember, <i>IF YOU COME ACROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN!!!</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-20692150610382302482019-04-17T16:50:00.001-05:002019-04-17T16:50:15.838-05:00Storms Likely Tonight<b>Forecast Discussion</b><br />
A potent upper level storm system currently located over New Mexico will be bringing us the opportunity for thunderstorms late this evening and overnight. Out ahead of this storm system, sticky Gulf of Mexico moisture has infiltrated the region and combined with the approaching storm system and a surface dry line and cold front will be the fuel for a few isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening (predominately for areas north and west of the Austin Area) and then widespread thunderstorms late evening into the early morning hours of Thursday for all of central and south central Texas. Storms that are able to develop this afternoon and early evening will have the potential to produce very large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. The most likely areas for this type of weather will be for areas north and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. I'm expecting quiet conditions across south central Texas until after 10 pm.<br />
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<b>What to expect</b><br />
Given the potent nature of this approaching storm system, severe weather will be possible across the area late this evening into early Thursday morning (pre-dawn). The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has placed a large swatch of north, central and south central Texas under an <b>ENHANCED RISK</b> for severe weather today/tonight. An enhanced risk is a level 3 out of 5 severe weather threat. The Storm Prediction Center defines an enhanced risk as "numerous severe storms possible" and the storms that develop will be "more persistent and/or widespread, a few intense."<br />
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<b>Severe Weather Threat: Enhanced Risk (Orange shaded areas)</b><br />
All modes of severe weather will be possible tonight (large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated spin-up tornado). I believe the greatest risks for the I-35 corridor will be the potential for some larger hail (potentially up to the size of golf balls) & some damaging wind gusts. Frequent and dangerous cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain will accompany all storms that develop.<br />
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Areas surrounding the enhanced risk area are in a slight risk (yellow shaded areas) category (threat level 2 out of 5)<br />
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<b>What makes a thunderstorm severe?</b><br />
A thunderstorm is considered to be severe by the National Weather Service if it's producing:<br />
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<li>hail of at least of one inch in diameter or greater (quarter-sized)</li>
<li>and/or winds in excess of 58 mph or greater</li>
<li>and/or a tornado</li>
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<b>Storm Timeline (High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model Imagery)</b></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">*times below are an estimate, line of storms will arrive along the I-35 corridor between 11:30 pm to 1:30 am</span></div>
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<b>9 pm</b> | Line of storms develops across the far western Hill Country </div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">11 pm</span></b> | Line of storms pushing through the Hill Country <span style="font-size: x-small;">(still west of the Hwy 281 corridor)</span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">1 am</span></b> | Line of storms overtakes the I-35 corridor</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">3 am</span></b> | Residual light to moderate rains continue across the I-35 corridor; heaviest storms pushing through Lee & Fayette County</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">7 am</span></b> | Line of storms pushing through east and southeast Texas </div>
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<b>How much rain can we expect?</b></div>
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On average 0.5 - 1.5 inches of rain...some areas out west will see less than that and some areas along and east of the I-35 corridor may see more than that. Flash flooding is not expected to be a concern at this time, but short-lived heavy downpours may result in minor street flooding late tonight/early Thursday. </div>
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<b>Thursday/Easter Weekend Outlook</b><br />
All of this activity will quickly push east of the area by sunrise Thursday as high pressure builds in from the west leaving us with a sunny, gusty, and cooler day with highs in the 70s. Highs rebound into the 80s by the weekend with more cloud cover returning each day. No rain is expected.<br />
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<b>***Please remain weather aware this evening and overnight and have a way to receive watches/warnings. It would be a good idea to have a flash light handy and your cell phones fully charged by midnight tonight just in case power goes out in your area.</b>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-42148548909155521102019-04-05T11:03:00.001-05:002019-04-05T11:03:38.244-05:00Storm Chances Increasing<div>
<b><u>Thursday's Record Heat</u></b></div>
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The temperature soared to 92°F at Austin's Camp Mabry Thursday afternoon beating the previous record high of 89°F set back in 2017. Austin Bergstrom International Airport missed their record high of 92°F set back in 1958 by one degree. Abundant sunshine, abnormally dry conditions, and a down-sloping westerly component to the wind on Thursday allowed temperatures to soar. Keep in mind the average high temperature for this time of year is closer to 77°F.</div>
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<b><u>Weekend Storm Chances</u></b></div>
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A series of upper level disturbances will be passing through the state of Texas this weekend and each disturbance will bring us a chance for showers and thunderstorms. A few of which will have the potential to be on the strong/severe side with large hail & damaging winds being the primary threats. The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms will come on Saturday (especially Saturday morning into early Saturday afternoon), but rain chances will begin to increase late tonight (most likely after 11 pm).</div>
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<b><u>Severe Weather Risk: SLIGHT </u></b></div>
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Given the potential for some isolated to scattered severe weather, the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has placed a large portion of central and east Texas under the SLIGHT RISK area for potential severe weather on Saturday and shifted the SLIGHT RISK area for potential severe weather farther east for Sunday. The severe weather threat will stay west of the area today. See outlooks below. </div>
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<b><u>Friday Severe Weather Risk Area</u></b></div>
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<b><u>Saturday Severe Weather Risk Area</u></b></div>
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<b><u>Sunday Severe Weather Risk Area</u></b></div>
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<b><u>Understanding Severe Weather Risk Outlooks</u></b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG-guU4301trrtpqRmAwmWQklHbz5Ee_GrERjnZsNxXU6DEqnLsdojZZhs-clBDeoCUz37HytGLekDoxIdDfahk_Lq-Cu_pRSWiT47oakGMaQfk3G3kAawHavYsZjGXtvJ2_hxIV5Z/s1600/Outlook-category-descriptions.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1123" data-original-width="1600" height="448" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgG-guU4301trrtpqRmAwmWQklHbz5Ee_GrERjnZsNxXU6DEqnLsdojZZhs-clBDeoCUz37HytGLekDoxIdDfahk_Lq-Cu_pRSWiT47oakGMaQfk3G3kAawHavYsZjGXtvJ2_hxIV5Z/s640/Outlook-category-descriptions.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b><u>Forecast Rainfall Accumulation</u></b></div>
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Between late Friday night through Sunday afternoon, 1-2 inches of rain may fall across central Texas with some areas potentially seeing more and some areas potentially seeing less. Areas west of the IH-35 corridor may see less than areas east. Flash flooding does NOT look to be a concern at this point in time, but if things do change always remember TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.</div>
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<b>NWS Forecast Rainfall Accumulation (1-3 Day Outlook)</b></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">valid now through early Monday AM</span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-14521637490276723072019-03-12T12:26:00.002-05:002019-03-12T12:28:15.851-05:00Thunderstorms likely late tonight into Wednesday Morning<br />
<b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Weather Setup</span></span></b><br />
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A potent upper level storm system approaching Texas from
the west will kick off a round of potential severe thunderstorms across far west
Texas late this afternoon and evening that will congeal into a line of showers
and thunderstorms that will move east late tonight and into the early morning
hours of Wednesday before reaching the I-35 corridor before sunrise Tuesday
morning. Storms should clear east of the I-35 corridor after the morning commute. Please plan accordingly for tomorrow morning given the expected thunderstorms. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Widespread fog, mist, drizzle and low clouds this
morning are thanks to a warm front moving north into the area from south Texas.
Southeasterly winds have returned to both Austin and San Antonio and dew points
and temperatures are rising behind the warm front. This warm front is sensing
the approach of tonight’s storm system and is forced to move north. Plenty of
sticky Gulf of Mexico Air is working its way north into the area. Despite
temperatures in the 60s now, 70s are creeping north and will be here for this afternoon
on breezy southeasterly winds. I'm not expecting much in the way of rain and thunderstorms this afternoon/early evening. Rain chances will really begin to increase after midnight and rapidly decrease from west to east by midday Wednesday morning. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Forecast Radar</b> (6 a.m. CDT Wednesday - Hi Res NAM Forecast Model)</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Shows a line of strong storms along the I-35 corridor from the Oklahoma/TX Border to the Mexico/TX Border</span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Forecast Model image courtesy of COD Meteorology</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>How much rain are we going to see?</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Given the progressive nature of the system, flooding does not look to be a concern. Rainfall amounts will generally average 0.25 to 0.50 inches with amounts of 0.75-1 inch not out of the question. </span></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Will we see any severe weather with these
storms?</span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The best opportunity for severe weather (large hail,
damaging winds, and tornadoes) will remain well west of central Texas across
west and far west Texas where the Storm Prediction Center out of Norman,
Oklahoma has placed those locations in an enhanced risk for severe weather
today & tonight. Portions of the Hill Country from roughly the Highway 281
corridor and west have been placed under the slight risk category for severe
weather today & tonight and areas along the I-35 corridor have been placed
under the marginal risk category for potential severe weather (the lowest risk
category). The biggest issue for us along the I-35 corridor is going to be
brief heavy downpours, frequent cloud to ground lightning, and potentially some
strong, gusty winds along some portions of the line of storms as it moves
through the area tomorrow morning. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>What do these severe weather risks mean ???</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><b>Image courtesy of the NWS Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office</b></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Tuesday’s Severe Weather Risk Areas<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Wednesday’s Severe Weather Risk Areas<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><o:p><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></o:p></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">What can we expect behind the storms?</span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt; line-height: 107%;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Sunshine, dry air and warmer temperatures! Highs behind
tomorrow morning’s storms will rebound into the 70s thanks to a breezy west
southwesterly wind behind tomorrow morning’s Pacific cold front. Some locations
may climb into the lower 80s. </span></span><span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Cooler weather will make a return to the area beginning
on Thursday and really becoming noticeable Friday into the upcoming weekend and
highs drop down into the 50s/60s and overnight lows dip down into the 30s/40s. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 12pt;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><i>Please remain weather aware and have a way to receive watches/warnings issued by the National Weather Service. Make sure you have a safety plan in place when and if severe weather should strike. It is always a good idea to be situationally aware. </i></span></span></div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-77888242279617472542019-01-17T16:19:00.003-06:002019-01-17T16:19:53.945-06:00Chilly Weekend in Store, but nowhere near as cold as originally advertised <div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 16pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="font-family: "comfortaa";"><span style="font-size: 20px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Forecast Discussion</b></span></span></div>
<div dir="ltr" style="line-height: 1.38; margin-bottom: 0pt; margin-top: 0pt;">
<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The return of sunshine today has allowed temperatures to climb into the 70s across the majority of central Texas this afternoon. As of 3 p.m. CST, the temperature at Austin’s Camp Mabry has climbed to 74° and along the west runway at Austin Bergstrom International Airport, the temperature has climbed to 77°. </span></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt; white-space: pre-wrap;">Low clouds and areas of fog will build back in across the area late tonight as temperatures cool into the upper 40s to lower 50s across the region. Increased cloud cover on Friday can be expected ahead of our next frontal system that will be cooling things off in a big way for the upcoming weekend. While the bulk of the really cold air associated with this next cold front will stay well north and east of central Texas, we will have just enough of it around to make for a chilly weekend. Forecast models were initially indicating a significantly colder air mass to move into the area earlier this week, but models have warmed significantly over the past couple of days and are indicating that rain chances will be much smaller than originally anticipated for Friday and Friday night as the much advertised cold front blows through the area. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: comfortaa;"><span style="font-size: 20px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Saturday Forecast Map (surface fronts, sea level pressure, precipitation type)</b></span></span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14.6667px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Forecast map valid 6 a.m. Saturday Morning</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: "comfortaa";"><span style="font-size: 20px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Day by Day Forecast</b></span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Let’s break down the forecast day by day through the weekend and into your M.L.K Holiday</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Tonight:</b> 53° | low clouds increase with areas of fog developing</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Friday: </b>71° | dreary morning gives way to a mainly cloudy, but mild afternoon; 20% chance of a shower along and especially east of the Interstate 35 corridor</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Friday Night:</b> 45° | Cold front approaches the area from the northwest and sparks a 30% chance for a shower or brief thunderstorm late (especially east and southeast of the Austin Metro Area)</span></span></div>
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<span style="color: black; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>Saturday:</b></span><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"> 56° | Mostly sunny, </span><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt; font-style: italic; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">WINDY</span><span style="color: black; font-family: inherit; font-size: 11pt; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;">, and much colder; wind gusts over 30 mph possible</span><br />
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Saturday Night:</b> 36° | Mostly clear, breezy and cold; light freeze possible north & west of Austin</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Sunday:</b> 57° | Sunny and cool</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Sunday Night:</b> 38° | Mainly clear & chilly</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>M.L.K Day:</b> 65° | Mainly sunny & warmer with a southerly breeze</span></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: transparent; color: black; font-size: 11pt; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline; white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">*Temperatures above reflect downtown Austin </span></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-11237922462694534712018-10-08T21:54:00.002-05:002018-10-08T21:54:30.619-05:00Slight Risk of Severe Weather Tuesday<style type="text/css">
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY</b></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the majority of central and north Texas (from Austin north) in the SLIGHT RISK category for potential severe weather on Tuesday. According to the Storm Prediction Center, a SLIGHT RISK of severe weather means scattered severe storms will be possible. The severe storms that are able to develop are typically <b>short-lived and NOT widespread</b>, however, an isolated intense storm cannot be ruled out.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: xx-small;"><span class="Apple-converted-space">Areas shaded in yellow are under a SLIGHT RISK for severe weather...dark green areas are under a MARGINAL RISK</span></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">A deep trough of low pressure (a large dip in the jet stream) to our west will continue to get closer to the area through the day on Tuesday and cross the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. Out ahead of this trough, a surface cold front is being pushed east southeast towards central Texas. As this front and the upper level dynamics provided by the trough approach the area, showers and thunderstorms are expected to blossom. The showers and thunderstorms we experienced today are occurring as deep moisture continues to be pulled into the state of Texas ahead of the approaching dip in the jet stream.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">According to the Storm Prediction Center, some of the storms that develop on Tuesday will have the potential to become strong and/or possibly severe with damaging winds in excess of 58mph being the greatest risk. In addition to the potential for some damaging thunderstorm wind gusts in a few spots, the threat for heavy rainfall and deadly cloud to ground lightning will occur with any and all storms that develop. Storms will come in waves through the day on Tuesday as disturbances move across the area from southwest to northeast ahead of the advancing trough of low pressure. Storm chances will eventually come to an end with a broken line of showers and storms late Tuesday afternoon and evening as a Pacific cold front pushes across the area from west to east with a reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air moving in from the northwest early Wednesday morning setting the stage for a beautiful Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday with noticeably more pleasant conditions thanks to a cooler and drier air mass that will infiltrate the region.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Additional rainfall amounts of 1-4 inches will be possible between now and late Tuesday night across central Texas with the heaviest totals being felt along and west of the I-35 corridor. Due to already saturated soils, it will not take a lot of rain for creeks and streams across the area to rise. Remember, if you come across a flooded roadway, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN. As always please remain weather aware and keep an eye to the sky.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">This approaching trough of low pressure that is giving us showers and storms is working in tandem with a ridge of high pressure centered across the east coast to steer Hurricane Michael (now forecast to make landfall as a MAJOR category three hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph and gusts near 140 mph) in the Florida panhandle Wednesday afternoon. In addition to the threat of high winds and torrential rainfall, Michael is also expected to bring a significant storm surge. Here’s a look at key messages from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Michael:</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">As of the 7pm Monday evening advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Michael is a category one hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Below is a look at the 7pm Monday evening official forecast track:</span></span></div>
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<b style="-webkit-text-stroke-width: initial; font-family: inherit;">Key Messages:</b></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash</span></span></div>
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<span class="s1"><span style="font-family: inherit;">flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into</span></span></div>
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To stay up to date with all of the latest information regarding Hurricane Michael, please visit the National Hurricane Center's website by clicking <a href="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">HERE</a> </div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-83136998566821009982018-06-15T18:32:00.005-05:002018-06-15T18:32:53.320-05:00Rain Looks Promising <b><u><span style="font-size: large;">Forecast Discussion</span></u></b><br />
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With high pressure positioned well to the east and northeast of Texas, the sea breeze was able to once again push through the area this afternoon. As it did so, it helped to generate some widely scattered showers and thundershowers. With the loss of daytime heating this evening, any remaining showers will quickly fizzle out. The sea breeze is simply a gust of wind that moves in off of the Gulf of Mexico that tries to equalize temperatures. Because land heats up a lot faster than water, low pressure develops and forces "cooler" air over the Gulf of Mexico to rush in land to takes it place. It acts like a mini cool front this time of year.<br />
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<b>Sea Breeze Graphic</b><br />
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<b>Saturday</b><br />
I'm expecting a near repeat of today's weather on Saturday, morning low clouds will give way to a partly cloudy and warm afternoon in the lower to middle 90s with afternoon/evening showers and storms popping up for some folks as the sea breeze moves through the area.<br />
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<b>Father's Day & Beyond</b><br />
Deep tropical moisture associated with an area of low pressure currently located over the northwestern Caribbean and Yucatan Peninsula will move northwest towards Texas over the weekend and approach the Texas coast by Father's Day. This approaching area of low pressure (which the National Hurricane Center is giving a 10% chance of tropical development this evening) will drag copious amounts of Gulf moisture into the Lone Star State for the second half of your Father's Day Weekend into the middle of next week. Because we will have so much moisture in place, I expect widespread tropical showers and storms to blossom up each afternoon beginning on Father's Day with even better chances for widespread tropical showers and storms Monday and Tuesday of next week. These showers and storms will be driven by the heat of the day, becoming widespread during the late morning/afternoon and decreasing each day towards sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Forecast models have been a bit wishy-washy in terms of forecast rainfall accumulation, but I'm thinking given the amount of moisture that's going to be in place, we could easily manage 1-3 inches of rain across the area between now and the middle of next week. Because of the tropical connection, showers and storms that develop will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. Another benefit of the added clouds and rain will be cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs after Father's Day (depending on when the rains flare up each day), will likely only manage the upper 80s.<br />
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<b>Tropical Moisture Location (as of Friday evening)</b><br />
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<b>Forecast Rainfall Accumulation - now through next Friday</b><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;">Source: Weather Prediction Center (WPC)</span><br />
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At this point in time, flash flooding is not a concern, as most of this rain looks to fall over several days, but it's always important to remember that if you come across a flooded roadway, turn around, don't drown!Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-4162855019369037552018-03-26T18:07:00.000-05:002018-03-26T18:07:00.404-05:00Stormy Days Ahead <span style="font-family: inherit; font-size: large;"><b>Forecast Discussion</b></span><br />
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An upper level storm system approaching from the west will work together with a slow moving frontal system to increase our <b>chances for showers and thunderstorms, some of which may be strong/severe, across the area beginning as early as tomorrow morning and peaking late Tuesday night into midday Wednesday</b>. By the time this is all said and done, many locations across central Texas have the potential to pick up between 1-2 inches of rain. Some locations may receive less and some locations may receive more.<br />
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The Storm Prediction Center based in Norman, Oklahoma has placed our area under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather tomorrow through Wednesday. The main threats from the storms that are able to turn severe will be large hail (greater than or equal to 1" in diameter) and strong, gusty winds (greater than or equal to 58 mph). At this point in time, flash flooding does not appear to be a threat, but some minor flooding could occur in areas that are typically prone to flooding during heavy rainfall events. Deadly cloud to ground lightning will be a threat in any storm that develops (weak or severe). Remember, when thunder roars, go indoors.<br />
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<span style="color: red;"><b><i>Pay attention to the Threat Impact Levels Chart in images below</i></b></span><br />
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<b>Tuesday Severe Weather Threat</b><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service Forecast Office</i></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i><br /></i></span>
<br />
<b>Wednesday Severe Weather Threat</b><br />
<span style="font-size: x-small;"><i>Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service Forecast Office</i></span><br />
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<br />
<b>Central Texas Forecast Rainfall Accumulation Graphic</b><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;">Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service Forecast Office</span></i><br />
<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></i>
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<i><span style="font-size: x-small;"><br /></span></i>
<br />
We are in a moderate/severe drought across the area, so beneficial rains are a welcome sight. Hopefully this rain will be more beneficial than troublesome. Another benefit of the rain will be to cleanse the air and outdoor surfaces from the tremendous amounts of spring pollen.<br />
<br />
<i><b>Please stay tuned to the latest weather information and heed all watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service/Storm Prediction Center. </b></i><br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-42172140987409391852018-03-22T15:47:00.002-05:002018-03-22T15:48:15.840-05:00Potentially Stormy Weather Pattern Next Week <br />
<b><span style="font-variant: small-caps; line-height: 107%;"><span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Forecast Discussion</span></span></b><br />
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">With the
lack of recent rainfall, the drought across the area continues to worsen. Per
the latest drought monitor published today (see below), the majority of central Texas is now considered to be in the moderate drought category with areas of severe drought
now across eastern Travis County, western Bastrop County, Caldwell, Hays, and
Comal Counties. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">There are
indications in the medium to long range forecast models that some much needed rainfall
may be on the way. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC), in their latest 7 day
rainfall outlook (see below), is forecasting the potential for 1-3 inches of rain to fall
across the area between now and next Friday with the majority of that rain
falling during the middle to latter portions of next week. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Friday - The Weekend</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">With high pressure in place at the upper levels of the atmosphere, the weather will remain fairly tranquil with increasing
moisture levels across the area as persistent southerly winds continue to bring
Gulf of Mexico moisture back into the area. Late night/morning low clouds can be expected giving way to partly sunny
afternoons. Morning lows in the 60s and afternoon highs in the 80s can be expected. Rain is NOT in the forecast this weekend, but some patchy morning drizzle cannot be ruled out. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif; font-size: large;">Next Week - Stormy Pattern (especially Wed-Fri)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "trebuchet ms" , sans-serif;">By the
beginning of next week, a large trough of low pressure is expected to take
shape across the western United States (a dip in the jet stream) that looks to
generate an upper level storm system across the desert southwest (a large, cold,
pocket of air aloft) that promotes lift and instability in the atmosphere. As
this upper low approaches Texas, the counter-clockwise rotation around this
upper level storm system will send disturbances, or ripples in the atmosphere across Texas that
will each bring with them a chance for showers and storms. <b>As the main upper
system approaches the area and combines forces with a surface cold front, our chances for showers and thunderstorms look to increase dramatically
for Wednesday-Friday of next week.</b> Given that we are in March, we will need to keep an eye out for some potential severe weather next week.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-30239824706396405352018-02-19T22:25:00.001-06:002018-02-19T22:25:58.808-06:00Heavy Rain Threat<h4>
<b><span style="font-family: "pt sans";"><span style="color: #cc0000;">TUESDAY AM STORMS (MAINLY WEST OF AUSTIN)</span></span></b></h4>
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<span style="font-family: "pt sans";">Showers and
thunderstorms likely to move across the Hill Country early Tuesday morning. Per
the latest high resolution forecast models, most the storms Tuesday morning
will stay west and northwest of the Austin Metro Area. Some of the storms early
Tuesday will have the potential to be on the strong side with heavy downpours,
frequent cloud to ground lightning, gusty winds, and perhaps some small hail.
These storms have the potential to put out a quick 1-2 inches of rain. It is not out of the question for some of these storms to side swipe portions of the Austin Metro Area early Tuesday.</span></div>
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<h4>
<b><span style="font-family: "pt sans";"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Forecast Radar
Tuesday 5AM</span></span></b><span style="font-family: "pt sans";"><span style="color: #cc0000;"> (HRRR Model)</span><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
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<h4>
<span style="color: #cc0000; font-family: "pt sans";">HEAVY RAIN THREAT LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY</span></h4>
<b><span style="font-family: "pt sans";"><span style="color: #cc0000;">***Widespread Showers
and Storms likely Tuesday Night into Wednesday***</span></span></b><br />
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<br /></div>
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<span style="font-family: "pt sans";">A cold front moving
across the area late Tuesday into Wednesday, upper level energy, and plentiful
amounts of Gulf moisture will lead to the development of widespread showers and
thunderstorms. These storms will have the potential to drop 1-3 inches of rain
across the area along with dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Some isolated
locations may receive upwards of 4-5 inches of rain. While some small hail and gusty thunderstorm winds cannot be ruled out, the biggest weather threat is going to be the potential for heavy rain. Should and if flash flooding becomes a concern remember, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Plain Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="E-mail Signature"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Top of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Bottom of Form"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal (Web)"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Acronym"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Address"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Cite"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Code"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Definition"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Keyboard"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Preformatted"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Sample"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Typewriter"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="HTML Variable"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Normal Table"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="annotation subject"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="No List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Outline List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Simple 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Classic 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Colorful 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Columns 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Grid 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table List 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table 3D effects 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Contemporary"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Elegant"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Professional"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Subtle 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Web 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Balloon Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Table Theme"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" UnhideWhenUsed="true"
Name="Note Level 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" SemiHidden="true" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" QFormat="true"
Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" QFormat="true"
Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" QFormat="true"
Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" SemiHidden="true"
UnhideWhenUsed="true" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="41" Name="Plain Table 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="42" Name="Plain Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="43" Name="Plain Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="44" Name="Plain Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="45" Name="Plain Table 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="40" Name="Grid Table Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="Grid Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="Grid Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="Grid Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="Grid Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="Grid Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="Grid Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="Grid Table 6 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="Grid Table 7 Colorful Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46" Name="List Table 1 Light"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51" Name="List Table 6 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52" Name="List Table 7 Colorful"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="51"
Name="List Table 6 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="52"
Name="List Table 7 Colorful Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="46"
Name="List Table 1 Light Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="47" Name="List Table 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="48" Name="List Table 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="49" Name="List Table 4 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="50" Name="List Table 5 Dark Accent 6"/>
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<h4>
<b><span style="font-family: "pt sans";"><span style="color: #cc0000;">Forecast Rainfall
Accumulation Graphic</span></span></b><span style="font-family: "pt sans";"><span style="color: #cc0000;"> (courtesy
of the National Weather Service)</span><o:p></o:p></span></h4>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQg9tSuOC_e4U44RuH4hP9j9vincSskT9gev06jfnkavNoqlADD4RIhlUMlv6sl_0ho0KbvXKI-x7Bnc-8nUsBmqhbkilXVVpqu1wIqUZJ52bHVp-ymfg1g_bqCYU4vAWvWE_8ZHfb/s1600/image3.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="544" data-original-width="725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiQg9tSuOC_e4U44RuH4hP9j9vincSskT9gev06jfnkavNoqlADD4RIhlUMlv6sl_0ho0KbvXKI-x7Bnc-8nUsBmqhbkilXVVpqu1wIqUZJ52bHVp-ymfg1g_bqCYU4vAWvWE_8ZHfb/s640/image3.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "pt sans";"><span style="color: #cc0000;"><br /></span></span></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-55019799306588661272017-12-31T13:02:00.005-06:002017-12-31T13:03:28.482-06:00Arctic Cold<h3>
<b>Forecast Discussion</b></h3>
<div>
Frigid, Arctic Air continues to ooze south into the lower 48 and the far southern extent of this enormous Arctic Air Mass is just beginning to move into central Texas. We have already reached our high for today in Austin of 43ºF (at midnight) and have already fallen to 38ºF as of the noon update. Many locations across the western and northwestern Hill Country have already dropped into the upper 20s and lower 30s. Waco and Dallas have already dropped below the freezing mark (32ºF). </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
12 p.m. CST Air Temperatures across the Nation [Sunday, December 31, 2017]</h3>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMqiThIQQ9H41PUIHpjjv3D4fsvfRxZBAVhzUqb2Vauz-lZ9HRE1AeHLseUyWzlj0TeKUZz5mqQZp6q1Vn1ODp0XApk-1Y5h-75OwB2trnbXs0uzPB59pvJu1MBoAv2nWwdbyp8Gjg/s1600/us_temps.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="960" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhMqiThIQQ9H41PUIHpjjv3D4fsvfRxZBAVhzUqb2Vauz-lZ9HRE1AeHLseUyWzlj0TeKUZz5mqQZp6q1Vn1ODp0XApk-1Y5h-75OwB2trnbXs0uzPB59pvJu1MBoAv2nWwdbyp8Gjg/s640/us_temps.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Potential Freezing Drizzle New Year's Eve</h3>
<div>
Thick cloud cover with embedded areas of mist/drizzle will be possible through the day today and into the evening hours tonight. As temperatures drop below the freezing mark (which should happen around 6-7 p.m. this evening in Austin), we will have to keep an eye out for any freezing drizzle that may develop and potentially cause some issues on area roadways later this evening as folks are out and about ringing in the new year. Elevated roadways (bridges and overpasses) will need to be monitored closely should and if any freezing mist and/or drizzle decides to fall. The folks at the National Weather Service believe the majority of the freezing drizzle concern should stay well west of the I-35 corridor, see their graphic below (areas in blue not expected to receive light freezing drizzle):</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxUVDxY0BDiEEcDixK4KL8vFl6b_xwKHLEqh40CsfzNoHufoXAMIgfYoSbeVX3DkJc0Zwag6g5qfidQd9Cvf9GBQFAFBh1mCmyMPHJA5o5hUlCT_jjJPlF-Sr9CHn1bmKSQ6l1t4KS/s1600/newyearseve.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="544" data-original-width="725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgxUVDxY0BDiEEcDixK4KL8vFl6b_xwKHLEqh40CsfzNoHufoXAMIgfYoSbeVX3DkJc0Zwag6g5qfidQd9Cvf9GBQFAFBh1mCmyMPHJA5o5hUlCT_jjJPlF-Sr9CHn1bmKSQ6l1t4KS/s640/newyearseve.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Arctic Cold Freezing Tips</h3>
<div>
Temperatures will drop below freezing across the area this evening and potentially could stay below freezing until Tuesday afternoon for many areas (especially north and west of Austin). This prolonged period of subfreezing temperatures can wreak havoc on your plants and pipes if you do not take appropriate action to protect them. It's a good idea to wrap any/all exposed pipes and water faucets/hydrants on your property and when temperatures drop below freezing it may be a good idea to play it safe and drip one or two faucets in your house and leave cabinet doors under your sink open for warm air to circulate (especially for those sinks/pipes that are located next to/along an exterior wall). In addition to plants/pipes remember to protect yourself from the cold by dressing appropriately in layers and making sure to protect your head and chest, and please don't forget about your pets. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Slight Chance Freezing Rain/Sleet on New Year's Day</h3>
<div>
A disturbance moving across the area on New Year's Day may generate some areas of light freezing rain and sleet (especially for areas south and west of Austin). We will need to monitor this closely as this may cause a concern for elevated roadways.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh54exH_nfq4NNp_URP5mUwEa3vjCJGcKr62W0pf7-dS8w-xOhJ3JDdt_iycrdPwyNgZ1o6yL_Cq3g00Z7_CFPifLkUMAjM3ah44bVgdTpv4JiS_uIjDVbFzUB0DefKD_CkoQcEcS2G/s1600/newyearsday.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="544" data-original-width="725" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh54exH_nfq4NNp_URP5mUwEa3vjCJGcKr62W0pf7-dS8w-xOhJ3JDdt_iycrdPwyNgZ1o6yL_Cq3g00Z7_CFPifLkUMAjM3ah44bVgdTpv4JiS_uIjDVbFzUB0DefKD_CkoQcEcS2G/s640/newyearsday.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br /></div>
<h3>
<span style="color: #cc0000;">Day by Day Forecast (valid for Austin, TX):</span></h3>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b>Tonight:</b> 25º | Cloudy, cold, and breezy; patchy light drizzle/and/or freezing drizzle possible early; wind chills in the teens...use caution on roads</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b>New Year's Day:</b> 32º | Mostly cloudy and cold with a slight chance for sleet (ice pellets)...wind chills in the 20s</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b>New Year's Day Night:</b> 22º | Partly cloudy and very cold; 10s in out-lying/low-lying areas </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b>Tuesday:</b> 35º | Partly sunny and cold</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b>Tuesday Night:</b> 20º | Mainly clear and very cold; 10s in out-lying/low-lying areas</div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<b>Wednesday:</b> 45º | Mostly sunny and warmer</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Hazardous Weather Outlook from the Austin/San Antonio National Weather Service:</h3>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<pre style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; padding-left: 20px; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">The coldest air of the season will move into the region with
temperatures falling below freezing across the entire area New
Year`s Day morning. <span style="background-color: yellow;">Temperatures across the Hill Country will stay
below freezing until sometime Wednesday. Low temperatures Tuesday
and Wednesday will in the middle teens in the Hill Country and
lower to middle 20s elsewhere.</span>
<span style="background-color: yellow;">Locations across the Hill Country could experience freezing
temperatures for more than 60 consecutive hours beginning New
Year`s Eve. Some locations along the I-35 corridor from Austin to
San Antonio could experience freezing temperatures for 24 to 36
consecutive hours beginning early New Year`s morning.</span></span></pre>
<pre style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; padding-left: 20px; widows: 2;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="background-color: yellow;">
</span></span></pre>
<pre style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; padding-left: 20px; widows: 2;"><h4 style="font-family: -webkit-standard; white-space: normal;">
</h4>
</pre>
<pre style="font-variant-ligatures: normal; orphans: 2; padding-left: 20px; widows: 2;"></pre>
</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-56412691218133668442017-12-27T20:15:00.004-06:002017-12-27T22:27:33.034-06:00New Year's Eve Arctic Blast<h3>
Forecast Discussion</h3>
<div>
Hello folks. I hope all of you had a wonderful Christmas holiday. Cold, Arctic Air has settled in across a large portion of the country. Modified Arctic Air has made it into central Texas and has helped to drop temperatures into the 30s and 40s across the area. Highs Wednesday only made it to 41ºF at Camp Mabry and Austin Bergstrom International Airport. As of Wednesday evening, temperatures have dropped into the 30s area wide with wind chills in the upper 20s to lower 30s. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h4>
7 p.m. Wednesday Evening Nationwide Temperatures </h4>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNhJHYVCUP_dUXLa2hmsCSWqvtlnU4fEmgYFZO_390pNbYLWXPePtQRR8HGNq42xCQ6EduH9GHE9ImhdaFjBmSJP6j59Ypd5o-Df_1FX_18IR8s__UoIt-pQhh8-zILBlmkSxd3Vas/s1600/latest.tair.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="770" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNhJHYVCUP_dUXLa2hmsCSWqvtlnU4fEmgYFZO_390pNbYLWXPePtQRR8HGNq42xCQ6EduH9GHE9ImhdaFjBmSJP6j59Ypd5o-Df_1FX_18IR8s__UoIt-pQhh8-zILBlmkSxd3Vas/s640/latest.tair.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<h3>
SLOW Warm-Up Ahead of New Year's Eve Arctic Cold Front</h3>
<div>
Temperatures over the next several days will slowly continue to rise ahead of an Arctic Cold Front that is forecast to arrive in Central Texas on New Year's Eve. Highs on Thursday will slowly "warm" back into the middle to perhaps upper 40s across the area under a mainly overcast sky, lower to middle 50s by Friday, and lower 60s by Saturday as southerly winds return to the area. The Arctic Cold Front looks to arrive late Sunday morning into early Sunday afternoon with rapidly falling temperatures and a gusty north winds. It looks like temperatures will be at or slightly below the freezing mark when the clock strikes midnight New Year's Day with wind chills in the teens and 20s across the area. Some forecast models are hinting there will be an opportunity for some freezing drizzle/rain and/or a few snow flurries New Year's Eve. We will need to watch this closely. We all know that it only takes a small amount of ice to wreak havoc on area roadways (especially elevated bridges and overpasses). Latest forecast model guidance is indicating that the majority of the precipitation should dry up just before temperatures drop below freezing in Austin, but it will need to be monitored closely. Especially if your travel plans take you north and west of Austin.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h4>
Forecast Upper Level Winds Favor an Arctic Air Mass to move south</h4>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiub842soKRKsM_OKaq3eCH70d_SRzd5-Ym1J24AmQns3LYiUJ4vgwsiBvgdFGBf117cRPf22HN_4pSZTANPI1DRSGWymex0r7FsGSBMKOMlcp8Zh7phpRqnaWeP-MPWiDqsB_Bntxo/s1600/gfs_z500_uv_noram_16.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiub842soKRKsM_OKaq3eCH70d_SRzd5-Ym1J24AmQns3LYiUJ4vgwsiBvgdFGBf117cRPf22HN_4pSZTANPI1DRSGWymex0r7FsGSBMKOMlcp8Zh7phpRqnaWeP-MPWiDqsB_Bntxo/s640/gfs_z500_uv_noram_16.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<h4>
Forecast Temperature Anomaly (indicating well below normal temperatures across a large portion of the country early next week)</h4>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKm1qVX3hrqJKKjcqaeEjXIm_TouZZDl2sGpjhZx0q2ZzwWuul8JsYWb6CLYBQ8v9KujHTyV_fVoF2uaAZkTPHyOHeZilGZ6Ufj2Z5-6cl4etC3CdGg-GFce_mA7MvpYZQANNC8zoJ/s1600/gfs_t2m_anomf_conus_21.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjKm1qVX3hrqJKKjcqaeEjXIm_TouZZDl2sGpjhZx0q2ZzwWuul8JsYWb6CLYBQ8v9KujHTyV_fVoF2uaAZkTPHyOHeZilGZ6Ufj2Z5-6cl4etC3CdGg-GFce_mA7MvpYZQANNC8zoJ/s640/gfs_t2m_anomf_conus_21.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<h3>
Arctic Cold to ring in 2018</h3>
<div>
A frigid Arctic air mass will remain entrenched across the area through at least the middle of the first week of 2018 keeping highs in the 30s Monday (New Year's Day) and Tuesday, most likely not much above freezing, with hard freezes likely during the overnight hours as temperatures are likely to drop into the lower to middle 20s across the region. You will need to make sure and wrap your exposed pipes as we have the potential to remain below freezing for long amounts of time. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-55793694242939043182017-12-21T18:47:00.002-06:002017-12-21T18:47:18.742-06:00First Day of Winter<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Forecast
Discussion<o:p></o:p></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><u><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></u></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: #c00000; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Near Record Warmth Today<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Despite the fact that winter officially arrived at 10:28 a.m. CST
this morning, afternoon high temperatures on this first day of winter topped
out just below record highs. Camp Mabry’s high coming in at an astoundingly
balmy 79°F (record high 81°F set back in 1970) and the airport topped out at
78°F (record high 81°F set back in 1970). The average or “normal” high for this
time of year should be closer to 62°F. Breezy south southwesterly winds at the
surface, sunshine, and southwesterly winds above the surface allowed for the
spike in temperatures today.<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: #c00000; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Cold Front Arrives Tomorrow (Friday) with Rain and
Sharply Colder Temperatures<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
The first of two Canadian cold fronts is set to arrive in Austin
Friday morning between 9-noon. As of 6:00 p.m. CST Thursday evening, the
leading edge of the cold front is just approaching Lubbock and the temperature
in Amarillo has already dropped to 32°F. As the upper level storm system
associated with this surface frontal system approaches the area late tonight,
areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms have the potential to develop and possibly
become more widespread as the cold front gets closer to the area during the early
to mid-morning hours. Those locations that receive rain will likely receive
somewhere between 0.10 to as much as 0.50 inches of rain. This rainfall event
does not look to be as heavy as the rains we experienced across the area late
Monday and Tuesday of this week. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b>6 P.M. CST Thursday Evening Temperature Map</b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiai0_je9hN_NN3Mhw5X7QU8SUFy6mewppM03b4ZgJAizNoRPzDCRL5W2kpyh3sMPDfbnlQ2vCSJh2Bu97WqLKXd30JGEJwWZmAg6IFweP-bnWDu8yJI9_ikFyYuGtKSjzC5sDtrD0J/s1600/us_temps+%25283%2529.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="960" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiai0_je9hN_NN3Mhw5X7QU8SUFy6mewppM03b4ZgJAizNoRPzDCRL5W2kpyh3sMPDfbnlQ2vCSJh2Bu97WqLKXd30JGEJwWZmAg6IFweP-bnWDu8yJI9_ikFyYuGtKSjzC5sDtrD0J/s640/us_temps+%25283%2529.gif" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
With that being mentioned, the Storm Prediction Center has placed
the area in a very low end risk category for severe weather on Friday
(especially for areas east and southeast of the I-35 corridor saying this, “A
marginal threat for a severe storm or two may exist across central/eastern
Texas, primarily during the day.” Area shaded in dark green on map below under the marginal risk for severe weather on Friday (very slim chance). </div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR3ZzULpAZzo8ivBFV6_7r23_J4p4GIi64BctjK7CF6_nEFyeGimB3_m7MOFLTLDdrr2VNxBH1wh0xHinfCLB7ZUSFkrfZwpWwOnGe-bhkce5JSK8WuQ3Hq_R87J0f1VOl8Puce4Np/s1600/TX_swody2+%25281%2529.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="750" data-original-width="1000" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjR3ZzULpAZzo8ivBFV6_7r23_J4p4GIi64BctjK7CF6_nEFyeGimB3_m7MOFLTLDdrr2VNxBH1wh0xHinfCLB7ZUSFkrfZwpWwOnGe-bhkce5JSK8WuQ3Hq_R87J0f1VOl8Puce4Np/s640/TX_swody2+%25281%2529.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
If the cold front moves through earlier in the day, the threat of
severe weather/strong storms will be near zero…if the cold front decides to
slow down a bit and let the air mass ahead of it heat up and destabilize, then
there is a SLIGHTLY better chance for an isolated strong/severe storm. I’m
thinking the front moves through early enough to only generate some general
rain shower activity with some pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall from time
to time. Some of the models keep things fairly dry, others continue to indicate
rain is going to fall. <o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Despite the rain and the storms, a noticeable drop in temperatures
will be felt behind the front with temperatures dropping from the 60s and 70s
ahead of the front into the 40s and 50s (some spots across the northern and
western Hill Country may spend quite a bit of the day in the 30s) behind it. You’ll
definitely want to leave the house in the morning with a rain jacket/winter
coat. Everybody drops into the upper 30s and lower 40s Friday night/Saturday
morning. No wintry precipitation is expected!<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: #c00000; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Christmas Weekend and Christmas Day<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
Skies will clear out for the most part on Saturday as high
pressure builds into the area from the west behind Friday’s cold front/storm
system. Sunshine will help highs climb into the 50s to near 60°F across the
area (it will be a nice, albeit cool sort of day). Lows dip into the 30s Saturday
night (above freezing for most of the area with the exception of some
out-lying, low-lying, typically colder locations).<o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: #c00000; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;">Christmas Eve Cold Front & Christmas Day<o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
A reinforcing shot of cold, Canadian Air will move in on Christmas
Eve with highs likely in the 50s and setting stage for a near area wide freeze
Christmas morning…the middle of Austin may stay a few degrees above the
freezing mark, but out-lying, low-lying locations should receive a freeze.
Highs on Christmas Day under a mainly sunny sky should manage to rebound into
the upper 40s to lower 50s across the area. Perfect for Christmas! <o:p></o:p></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-37694438781812625742017-12-14T17:25:00.004-06:002017-12-14T17:25:35.836-06:00Rain Chances Increasing, Early Look at Christmas<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Thursday (12/14/17)
Evening Weather Update <o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></span></b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: inherit;">…Rain chances on the increase for the first half of the upcoming
weekend…a few thunderstorms will be possible too along with chilly temps…no
severe weather is expected...<o:p></o:p></span></i></b></div>
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<b><i><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></i></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">An active subtropical jet (southwesterly wind flow aloft) is to
blame for the persistent and widespread high cloud coverage. At the surface, a
weak cold front is moving across the region and will help to reinforce the
cool, dry air mass in place across the area. Lows tonight will drop into the
upper 30s to middle 40s across the area under a mostly cloudy sky. Those clouds
and a northerly breeze will help to keep temperatures above the freezing mark
across the area. Some sprinkles may try and approach the area late tonight from
the south, but given the extremely dry air in place at the surface and the
majority of the upper level dynamics to produce rain staying to our south, most
locations will likely remain sprinkle-free.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Friday’s
Forecast:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">A chilly start to the day in the upper 30s-mid 40s will give way
to a mostly cloudy and cool afternoon with highs only managing the mid-50s to 60°F.
Rain is not expected across the area on Friday.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Weekend Forecast:<o:p></o:p></span></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Rain is likely on Saturday (especially during the afternoon and
evening hours) as an upper level disturbance moves across the area from west to
east. A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Saturday, but no severe
weather is expected. Given the widespread clouds and rain, highs on Saturday
will likely stay on the chilly side in the 50s. It’s definitely going to feel
cold and damp with the rain. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">On average 0.5 to 1 inch of rain could fall for areas along and
east of the I-35 corridor, with lesser amounts likely for areas west of the
Highway 281 corridor. Rain will clear out from west to east late Saturday night
into Sunday and set the stage for a pleasant Sunday with mostly sunny skies and
afternoon highs in the 60s.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: 14.0pt; line-height: 107%; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><span style="font-family: inherit;">Early Look at
Christmas:</span></span></b></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Long range models have consistently been hinting that some
significantly colder weather (Arctic Air) looks to arrive the Friday before Christmas
(12/22) and perhaps drop highs into the 30s and 40s and overnight lows into the
20s. Those same models predicting the cold air moving in are also showing chances
for wintry precipitation across the area too. It’s too early to say how cold it’s
going to be and just how much if any precipitation we will see, but it’s worth
noting that the weather trend is looking to be much colder and potentially
wetter as we head into Christmas. Stay tuned. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>8-14 Day Temperature Outlook (valid 12/22-28/17)</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Below Normal Temperatures Forecast</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook (valid 12/22-28/17)</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: inherit;">Above normal precipitation forecast<b> </b></span></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-68541031266126888212017-11-30T19:05:00.005-06:002017-11-30T19:05:40.065-06:00Colder Days Ahead<h2>
Forecast Discussion</h2>
This November will likely go down as the third warmest November in Austin's recorded weather history. A La Niña weather pattern currently in place is largely to blame for the warmer and drier than normal conditions this fall. La Niña occurs when cooler than normal waters are present in the Equatorial Pacific. Fluctuations in water temperature in that region of the Earth play a significant role in weather patterns across the globe. La Niña typically brings Texas warmer and drier weather during the fall/winter, but that doesn't mean we will not see any cold weather. In fact, La Niña's are known to bring severe, but short-lived cold snaps to Texas.<br />
<br />
<h3>
Drought Returning</h3>
The lack of rainfall across the state, despite the devastating rains brought to the area from Harvey, has led to drought development across a large portion of the state. Areas shaded in tan on the map below are considered to be in a "moderate" drought, areas in yellow are considered "abnormally dry," and areas in orange are considered to be in a "severe" drought.<br />
<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYh8F1LF_BHvKRH0O84VfbPw37VSlXFDZ4lkRwPmiXZimNEEwyxNta5C5yixPtfiTVzM8_Spk0K0uBZQKnhDH7LeWgYl83KFA4TsyRj7-0PtgZBgL0Z4tvGFbVRypRImxeojzGEbeJ/s1600/20171128_TX_text.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1056" height="494" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYh8F1LF_BHvKRH0O84VfbPw37VSlXFDZ4lkRwPmiXZimNEEwyxNta5C5yixPtfiTVzM8_Spk0K0uBZQKnhDH7LeWgYl83KFA4TsyRj7-0PtgZBgL0Z4tvGFbVRypRImxeojzGEbeJ/s640/20171128_TX_text.png" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />
<h3>
Colder Days Ahead</h3>
Looking ahead, major forecast models are indicating a pattern shift that will unlock cold Polar and Arctic Air and send it south into the lower 48 next week. That pattern shift can be seen on the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day temperature and precipitation outlooks.<br />
<br />
Valid December 6-10th the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting "colder than normal" conditions across the Lone Star State and much of the eastern half of the United States and "above normal precipitation" for the Northeast, East Coast, Southeast and South Central Plains. (see graphics below).<br />
<br />
<h4>
Temperature:</h4>
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<h4>
Precipitation:</h4>
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<div>
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Highs in central Texas will continue in the 70s through Monday of next week, before colder air begins to move into the area sometime Tuesday of next week. Highs a couple of days next week are likely to only be in the 40s/50s with overnight lows in the 30s. Too soon to say just how cold it's going to get, but colder weather is on the way. Along with the forecast cold temperatures, rain chances look to sneak into the forecast as well for next week. Too soon to say how much rain we are going to see, but it's nice to see rainfall chances back in the forecast.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-25833178383002839102017-11-06T17:59:00.003-06:002017-11-06T17:59:28.104-06:00Roller Coaster Weather<h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Forecast Discussion</b></span></h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">Hello folks! After a stretch of very warm and humid weather with highs in the 80s and lows in the 70s, the weather will be turning sharply colder by as early as tomorrow evening and especially on Wednesday.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><b>Current Temperatures across the nation as of 5 p.m. CST...much colder air lurking to the north...we are the warm spot here in Central and South Texas</b></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<h4>
Near Record Highs Today</h4>
<br />
<br />
The temperature soared to 88°F this afternoon in Austin at Camp Mabry, missing the record high for this date of 89°F set back in 1963 by just one degree. Today's high of 88°F is 13 degrees above "average" for this time of year and our morning low of 72°F is 18 degrees above average for this time of year.<br />
<br />
<h4>
<b>Tuesday Evening Cold Front</b></h4>
<br />
The "well-advertised" cold front that will be returning fall weather to the area is looking to arrive Tuesday evening with gradually falling temperatures behind it. Temperatures will drop from the 70s and 80s Thursday afternoon into the 40s and 50s by the time we are all waking up Wednesday morning. Highs Wednesday will actually occur at midnight as temperatures are expected to hover or slowly tick down through the day. The majority of the day will be spent in the 50s across the area, with 40s for areas north and west of the city of Austin. In addition to the chilly temperatures, scattered light rain is likely to fall on and off through the day as an overrunning pattern develops across the area (warm, humid air being forced to rise up and over the cooler air at the surface). This is a typical fall/winter weather pattern for us here in central Texas. Rainfall amounts will be very light. It will be more of a nuisance type rain. Rain, chilly temps, and a breezy north wind will make for a raw, Pacific northwest type of day across the area on Wednesday.<br />
<br />
<b>Forecast Model Showing Front Approaching Austin at 5 p.m. Tuesday evening</b><br />
(NAM Hi-Res Forecast Model)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga_cjz_zrqJiNBFKl1PoQyqY7cM14ZKFRTGxdQLcqZkqP9rCOQZBNH49_wcW04WUOeo5pVdwXeMTo8_rIIkdLIwO06P4sCtoVdpQUJtxzat53DTgSbK1M-yQiB2XrNAIWYjVGk2Apv/s1600/hires_t2m_austin_29.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1024" data-original-width="1280" height="512" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEga_cjz_zrqJiNBFKl1PoQyqY7cM14ZKFRTGxdQLcqZkqP9rCOQZBNH49_wcW04WUOeo5pVdwXeMTo8_rIIkdLIwO06P4sCtoVdpQUJtxzat53DTgSbK1M-yQiB2XrNAIWYjVGk2Apv/s640/hires_t2m_austin_29.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b>Forecast Temperatures for 1 p.m. Wednesday afternoon </b><br />
(NAM Hi-Res Forecast Model)<br />
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<h4>
<b>Clouds/Rain Clear Away Wednesday Night</b></h4>
<br />
Clouds and rain will slowly clear away Wednesday night as temperatures drop into the 40s area wide and potentially some upper 30s for areas north and west of the Austin Metro Area. No freezing temperatures and/or frozen precipitation are expected.<br />
<br />
<h4>
<b>Brisk End to the Week</b></h4>
<br />
After a chilly start to the day on Thursday in the upper 30s-mid 40s afternoon highs will only manage the lower 60s under a mainly sunny sky...lows dip back into the 40s Thursday night before temperatures begin to warm a bit further towards the 70°F mark by Friday afternoon as southeasterly winds slowly return to the area.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-59601511357862298382017-10-26T17:46:00.001-05:002017-10-26T17:51:35.645-05:00October Cold Blast<h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><u>Forecast Discussion</u></span></h2>
<span style="font-family: inherit;">The strongest cold front of the 2017 fall season arrives early Friday morning. After a chilly start today in the 40s and 50s, afternoon highs were able to rebound nicely into the upper 70s - mid 80s area wide thanks to abundant sunshine, dry air, and a breezy south southwesterly surface wind. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span>
<i>Current Temperatures across the Nation as of 5:00 PM CDT</i><br />
<i><br /></i>
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<h2>
<u>Cold Front Timeline/Impacts</u></h2>
<h3>
Friday</h3>
The cold front will arrive early Friday morning (before sunrise) with gusty northerly winds and falling temperatures. Afternoon "highs" on Friday will struggle to climb much above the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region. Breezy north winds sustained between 10-20 mph, frequently gusting 25-30 mph will make it feel even colder. While no substantial rain is in the forecast, a sprinkle or two cannot be ruled out (especially across northern areas of central Texas) Friday morning.<br />
<br />
<b>Highs | Upper 50s to Lower 60s</b><br />
<br />
<h3>
Friday Night </h3>
Temperatures plunge into the 30s and lower 40s area wide late Friday night into Saturday morning...some areas north and west of the city of Austin may get within a degree or two of the freezing mark (32°F).<br />
<br />
<b>Lows | Mid 30s to Lower 40s</b><br />
<br />
<h3>
Saturday/Saturday Night/Sunday Morning</h3>
A chilly start to the day in the 30s and lower 40s will give way to a mainly sunny and brisk afternoon with afternoon highs climbing into the lower to middle 60s across the area before the bottom drops out once again Saturday night/Sunday morning as temperatures drop even further into the 30s across the area. The best opportunity for a freeze will come early Sunday morning for out-lying and low-lying areas across central Texas. Since cold air is more dense than warm air, on clear/calm nights the coldest air drains to the lowest lying locations (river beds, valleys, creek beds, etc.)...a freeze is <b>NOT</b> expected for Austin proper, although the airport may get very close because of their weather station's location near Onion Creek.<br />
<br />
<b>Highs | Lower to Middle 60s</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Lows | Lower to Upper 30s; some low 40s in urban areas</b><br />
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<h3>
Sunday & Beyond</h3>
After a very cold start to the day for late October, afternoon highs will rebound into the lower 70s with the help of a south southwesterly surface wind. Our next cold front and our next significant chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to arrive on Tuesday (Halloween).Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-74296537300407241422017-10-12T22:56:00.003-05:002017-10-12T22:56:36.197-05:00Warm End to the Week ahead of Sunday Cold Front<b><span style="font-size: large;">Forecast Discussion</span></b><div>
After a brief taste of fall air earlier this week, above normal temperatures returned to central Texas Thursday afternoon. Surface high pressure moving to our east today allowed for south southeasterly surface winds to return. That shift in wind direction is bringing increasing moisture to the area this evening and warmer overnight lows. Highs climbed to 88ºF at Camp Mabry Thursday afternoon and 87ºF at Austin Bergstrom International Airport. Highs will remain in the upper 80s/lower 90s both Friday and Saturday under mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies. Overnight lows will remain mild in the upper 60s and lower 70s. </div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">The Forces Driving the Cold Front/Rain???</span></b></div>
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A developing trough of low pressure, or dip in the jet stream, will strengthen and cross the center of the country this weekend. That dip in the jet stream will push a cold front through the area Sunday morning. A moist air mass out ahead of the front will allow for a chance for scattered showers and thundershowers Sunday morning as the front sweeps through the region from the north. Given the fast-moving nature of this cold front, rainfall accumulation is looking to be rather light. Some locations may receive upwards of 0.25 inches of rain. Some folks may not see any rain as the front crosses their neighborhoods. </div>
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<b>Forecast Model Showing the Dip in the Jet Stream across the center of the country on Saturday</b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0600zfOfG3CwJaQm0nmEN4DACVqVlrkcXoRJ7Rh-gF-WSrAKpHUttgwnyg-9WcH75aCIkoOXo_zgjOJFyMvY4CFfGDPx2p-RAWCiSG8o3jBvWs1hprpF9RuA4KOX-Ol8q-p0KNNd_/s1600/gfs_z500_uv_conus_9.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi0600zfOfG3CwJaQm0nmEN4DACVqVlrkcXoRJ7Rh-gF-WSrAKpHUttgwnyg-9WcH75aCIkoOXo_zgjOJFyMvY4CFfGDPx2p-RAWCiSG8o3jBvWs1hprpF9RuA4KOX-Ol8q-p0KNNd_/s640/gfs_z500_uv_conus_9.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">How Much Cooler???</span></b></div>
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A significantly cooler and drier air mass will filter into the area on Sunday on breezy/gusty north winds sustained between 10-20 mph and gusting between 25-30 mph. Skies will slowly clear from north to south through the day on Sunday before skies go completely clear late Sunday into Monday as temperatures drop into the 50s to lower 60s area wide by early Monday morning. It's going to feel great! This cool air mass will stick around through the middle of next week before warmer temperatures return by the end of next week.</div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Forecast Lows Next Tuesday October 17th</span> </b></div>
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<b>40s and 50s area wide</b></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi36lesVMpaIAOLaCrVi3cibpqZx-6uq5BzsKTFHNrsz4bKuIfbU1Fol3XP-dNc05HN9KKLi2dBD_yufe51JfTSWmkFfvNL9w0tHLFz5iIPhJyR_pBZF2bPxD6jHN5ErvWi6l4J-WEi/s1600/gfs_t2m_b_austin_20.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="768" data-original-width="1024" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi36lesVMpaIAOLaCrVi3cibpqZx-6uq5BzsKTFHNrsz4bKuIfbU1Fol3XP-dNc05HN9KKLi2dBD_yufe51JfTSWmkFfvNL9w0tHLFz5iIPhJyR_pBZF2bPxD6jHN5ErvWi6l4J-WEi/s640/gfs_t2m_b_austin_20.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-512270230353260292.post-8778120959475839912017-10-09T13:38:00.002-05:002017-10-09T13:38:09.815-05:00Cold Front Arrives Tonight!<b><span style="font-size: large;">Forecast Discussion || Cold Front Arrives Tonight</span></b><br />
Our first significant cold front of the 2017 fall season arrives late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Latest indications are that the front will arrive between midnight to 3 a.m. CDT. There is a 30-40% chance for scattered showers and/or brief thunderstorms as the cold front pushes through the area generating lift (rising air). Behind the frontal boundary, a significantly cooler and drier air mass will invade the area from the north on breezy/gusty north winds. Winds will gust between 25-30 mph well into Tuesday morning. This same storm system is producing snow across Colorado today. Denver is currently a winter wonderland with between 4-6 inches of snowfall accumulation already being reported and it's still snowing. This is Denver's earliest reported snowfall in the past 5 years.<br />
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<b>Denver Web Cam Shot taken at 1:00 p.m. CDT today (12:00 p.m. MDT):</b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3zpe4WLfJ2-tw9xpiBSvCazieQ74-a4rX5gu9o51KgNrif-S5uBCBete95TDwjlNW5kbCoXnADmmKP7A6EMp8maT_zVlGlfEOv5v-arnndlMXtD-QULSs4NtX3D_1clyW2yMboxLm/s1600/DenverOctoberSnow.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="1200" data-original-width="1600" height="480" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj3zpe4WLfJ2-tw9xpiBSvCazieQ74-a4rX5gu9o51KgNrif-S5uBCBete95TDwjlNW5kbCoXnADmmKP7A6EMp8maT_zVlGlfEOv5v-arnndlMXtD-QULSs4NtX3D_1clyW2yMboxLm/s640/DenverOctoberSnow.jpg" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">Where is the front?</span></b><br />
As of 1 p.m. CDT, the leading edge of the cold front is currently pushing through northwest Texas, just now reaching portions of the I-20 corridor. It's 55°F in Amarillo and 92° in Dallas.<br />
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<b>Current Temperatures across the nation as of 1:00 p.m. CDT </b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-K45Z-W-lxinFfWzY7fVGoFof16tvuu_kcGgRi-c02iUU8-E77yq2StGtHY1GT4Ymy1gh6siNNTT-yPIKuKVYa4BdPZjnLJrfF-pn7FXNL1s5ZUptPTY66Oeqc3EkeGbVnPKwXEVP/s1600/OCT92017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="440" data-original-width="770" height="364" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh-K45Z-W-lxinFfWzY7fVGoFof16tvuu_kcGgRi-c02iUU8-E77yq2StGtHY1GT4Ymy1gh6siNNTT-yPIKuKVYa4BdPZjnLJrfF-pn7FXNL1s5ZUptPTY66Oeqc3EkeGbVnPKwXEVP/s640/OCT92017.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<b><span style="font-size: large;">How much cooler?</span></b><br />
Highs on Tuesday should only manage the 70s after starting the day in the 50s and 60s area wide. Lows Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning will dip into the 50s area wide with typically cooler locations dipping into the 40s. Highs on Wednesday should only manage the 70s to near 80 before the above normal temperatures return for the end of the week and the upcoming weekend. The average high/low for this time of year in Austin is 84/63.<br />
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<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0