Chilly, Wet Weekend Ahead

***WET, CHILLY WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS***

An upper level area of low pressure currently developing over the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico will slowly be pushing east towards Texas over the next several days. In addition to creating lift, or rising air, over the area, the approaching upper level low has already shifted mid and upper level winds out of the south and southwest on top of the cool, northeasterly winds at the surface (where we live, work, and play). This weather pattern is known as overrunning. Warmer, moister southerly winds are being forced to ride up and over the cooler air mass in place at the surface. This overrunning pattern is quite common across south central Texas during the fall, winter, and spring seasons.

Latest forecast model guidance continues to indicate that ALL locations across the area from the Hill Country to the coastal plains will be receiving rain in the coming days. As of right now, it appears that the heaviest rainfall totals will occur along and especially east of the I-35 corridor. Latest forecast rainfall projections are indicating as much as 2-4 inches of rain could fall over the next several days (Friday-Monday) for areas along and east of I-35 with areas west of I-35 receiving 1-2 inches of rain. While heavy rainfall is certainly possible across the area over the next several days, the majority of the rain will be in the light to moderate category and spaced out over several days, therefore, flash flooding does NOT appear to be a concern for the area. However, minor flooding is certainly possible in flood prone areas/locations. If you have travel plans to southeast Texas, rainfall accumulation has the potential to be higher in those areas with some locations potentially receiving as much as 4-6 inches of rain.

Thanks to the clouds, rain, and northeasterly surface winds across the area, temperatures will remain on the chilly side over the upcoming weekend with highs expected to be in the 50s and lows in the 40s. Thankfully we will not have to worry about any frozen precipitation. Temperatures will remain well above freezing.

The upper level low is forecast to clear the area on Monday and set us up for clearing conditions by Tuesday of next week ahead of a strong cold front that looks to arrive on Wednesday. This front has the potential to bring Austin its first official freeze of the season. More to come on that in future posts.

Bottom line, keep the umbrellas and the rain jackets handy over the upcoming weekend and drive safely and cautiously on area roadways.