Forecast Discussion:
After a chilly fall weekend, temperatures are quickly climbing back
into the 70s area wide on a breezy southerly wind. That breezy southerly wind
has developed in response to an approaching upper level trough of low pressure
to our west. Surface low pressure developing to our north and surface high
pressure shifting to our east are giving us the southerly winds. The return of
southerly winds has already allowed for surface dew points to rebound into the
upper 40s and 50s area wide compared to the 30s we saw over the weekend. The
dew point temperature is a direct indicator of the amount of moisture in our
air; the higher the dew point, the higher the moisture and vice versa.
Dew points will be soaring into the 60s by Tuesday morning making
things feel noticeably more uncomfortable.
Severe Weather Risk Tuesday/Tuesday Evening:
Increasing moisture, an approaching upper level trough, and a surface
cold front will work together to bring us a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the area on Tuesday, especially Tuesday evening. In fact,
the Storm Prediction Center has placed our area in the SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY
for severe weather Tuesday evening. The biggest risk from the storms that develop
will be strong, gusty winds.
Behind the storms, a cooler and drier air miss will move back into
the area and set us up for several pleasant weather days and what looks to be a
very comfortable Thanksgiving Day with highs in the 60s to near 70°F across the
area and lows in the 40s.
Severe Weather Risk Area:
Long range forecast models are indicating a potential shift to a
colder weather pattern by the end of the month and into December.
We still have plenty of time to monitor that.
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