FRIDAY PM WEATHER UPDATE

FRIDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:

TORNADO WATCH remains in effect until 7 p.m. CDT for Williamson, Travis, Bastrop, Lee, Caldwell, Fayette, and Milam counties. The tornado threat is rather low, however, it is not zero. Any tornadoes that do develop would tend to be weaker, more tropical-type tornadoes. Nevertheless, a tornado is a tornado and can produce damage to life/property.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for ALL of south central Texas through 10 a.m. CDT Saturday (Halloween) morning.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING remains in effect until 7:15 p.m. CDT Friday evening for the following locations:

    1) Northwestern Bastrop County

    2) Williamson County

    3) Travis County

    4) Northeastern Guadalupe County

    5) Western Caldwell County

    6) Central Hays County

***ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED AREA…RUNOFF FROM EARLIER HEAVY RAINS IS STILL CAUSING ISSUES ACROSS THESE AREAS***

REMEMBER, IF YOU COME ACROSS A FLOODED ROADWAY, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN!!!

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The potent upper level Pacific storm system is still located well west of south central Texas and is currently centered as of the latest water vapor satellite imagery over southern New Mexico. Until this upper level low pressure system crosses the area, upper air disturbances, or ripples in the atmosphere will continue to move across the area. Each ripple will bring a round of showers and storms. According to the latest high resolution forecast models, a second round of heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will be possible later this evening (after 10 p.m. CDT) for Austin, with a third wave of showers and storms moving in closer to daybreak Saturday with the arrival of a Pacific cold front. With this in mind, the flooding threat will remain with us as we head into the evening, overnight, and early morning hours of Saturday. Areas south of Austin have seen widespread rainfall amounts on the order of 8-14 inches of rainfall. It will not take much additional rainfall to aggravate our already delicate flash flooding situation. Showers and storms look to exit the area to the east by midday Saturday as a much drier and more stable atmosphere moves into the area behind Saturday morning’s frontal passage. I’m still holding out that the majority of Saturday will be nice with beautiful fall weather moving into south central Texas on Sunday with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s under sunny/clear skies.

FORECAST RADAR IMAGERY 9 P.M. CDT FRIDAY EVENING (this particular model is showing a line of strong storms moving through the western hill country and approaching the I-35 corridor)

FORECAST RADAR IMAGERY 5 A.M. CDT SATURDAY MORNING (this particular model is showing a third line, hopefully the last, moving through the I-35 corridor before sunrise as that much-anticipated cold front crosses the area…clearing conditions expected behind the front)

Additional rainfall amounts could exceed 2-4 inches across the area with some locations possibly receiving more…of course any additional rain will add insult to injury.

In addition to the risk of additional flash flooding, strong gusty winds, dangerous cloud to ground lightning, and isolated tornadoes will all be possible.  

LET’S CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEATHER AWARE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS HERE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS…PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FOR THE VERY LATEST AND MOST UP TO DATE FORECAST INFORMATION.

Storms likely Friday/Saturday AM

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Low and mid-level moisture is already beginning to surge north into Central Texas out ahead of a vigorous Pacific upper level storm system moving in from the west…the cold front that moved through here yesterday is currently located near Corpus Christi and extends back east over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This front will work back north as a warm front through the afternoon and evening hours into early Friday and replenish our atmosphere with rich, tropical Gulf moisture just in time for the upper air storm system to create lift and kick off showers and storms across the area Friday morning through midday Saturday. I think we are going to see a couple of rounds of heavy showers and storms here across central Texas Friday through Saturday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has us in the MARGINAL RISK category for severe weather on Friday, however, in their recent forecast discussions, they may be increasing that risk level into the SLIGHT RISK category. Storms that develop on Friday/Friday night will have the potential to become severe with pocket-change sized hail, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes. Of course heavy rainfall and deadly cloud to ground lightning will accompany all storms that develop. Remember, if a tornado warning is issued you want to get to the lowest level of the structure you are in and put yourself in the most interior room. Put as many walls between you and the outside as possible.  

Current Visible Satellite Imagery (Texas/western Gulf of Mexico)...notice the clouds surging north and the skinny line over the Gulf, that's the front!

Forecast Radar Friday Morning (4KM NAM Model)

Forecast rainfall accumulation continuing to indicate a widespread 1-3 inches of rain across the area, with the potential for 3-5 inches in some locations. Due to saturated soils from heavy rains this past weekend, some minor flash flooding may be a concern and in turn create some low water crossings across the area. Please remember, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN when you come across a flooded roadway.  

LET'S REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!!! PLEASE HEED ALL WATCHES/WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

Potential Severe Weather Risk on Friday

Forecast Discussion:

Good Wednesday afternoon. Hope you are all doing well.

A gusty, dry cool front has now passed through all of south central Texas as of 1 p.m. CDT and is now making its way south and east towards the Texas coast and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico. With little to no moisture out ahead of this front and essentially stable atmospheric conditions, this front came through the area without any precipitation. Breezy and slightly cooler this afternoon with highs very near, if not slightly above the 80°F mark. Mostly clear and cool overnight tonight with lows dipping into the 50s, a few areas of high clouds may drift across the region from time to time.

Friday Severe Weather Threat:

As a dynamic upper level Pacific storm system approaches the area late tomorrow into Friday, surface pressure will begin to drop here across south central Texas and help to pull the cool front that moved through here today back north as a warm front late Thursday into Friday. That returning southerly wind will help to increase Gulf of Mexico moisture across the area effectively recharging our atmosphere for the approaching storm system. I’ll be watching Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning for some potentially stronger, possibly severe, thunderstorms. Regardless of the severe weather threat, forecast model guidance is currently indicating an additional 1-3 inches of rain is possible across the area with some isolated locations receiving upwards of 4 inches of rain. As it looks right now, Halloween afternoon/evening should be dry here across central Texas as the bulk of the storm system should be located to our east at that time, allowing cooler, drier continental air to move into the area that will set us up for a beautiful Sunday across the area with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s!

The Storm Prediction Center, abbreviated SPC, has placed all of south central Texas including the Austin and San Antonio Metro areas under a MARGINAL RISK for severe storms on Friday. Keep in mind this is a relatively low risk, however, the potential is there for these storms to produce some strong, gusty winds of 58 mph or greater and potentially a tornado or two. In addition to those threats, heavy rainfall and deadly cloud to ground lightning will accompany all storms.

Area shaded in dark green below is under a MARGINAL RISK for severe weather on Friday:

Stormy Halloween?

Forecast Discussion:

Good Monday evening everybody. The highly anticipated rainfall event this past weekend, for the most part, went relatively well across south central Texas, given the 4-10+ inches of rainfall that fell across the weekend. Since last Thursday, Camp Mabry has picked up 6.03 inches of rainfall, with the majority of that rainfall falling on Saturday as the remnant mid and high level moisture of Hurricane Patricia interacted with a strong upper level storm system, a surface cold front, and plentiful amounts of low-level Gulf of Mexico moisture. Saturday had the potential to be a lot worse across the area. Austin Bergstrom International Airport received 7.55 inches since Thursday, with the majority of that rainfall falling on Saturday. Thankfully we received more benefits from the rainfall than problems. The Hidden Pines Fire was effectively squashed out, area creeks, rivers, and lakes feeling nice rises, and a nice drop in temperature and humidity across the area. 

Below is a look at what Doppler radar imagery looked like at 5:30 a.m. Saturday morning, notice the very heavy tropical downpours extending from Kendall, Blanco, Travis, Williamson and Milam Counties...those heavy downpours exploded over a southward-moving cold front. Thankfully that line of heavy downpours moved through at a time when most people were safely at home and not out on area roadways.

Rainfall Totals across central Texas (past week) courtesy of the LCRA's Hydromet Network:

Generally speaking, 5-12 inches of rainfall fell across Travis County/Austin Metro area with 7-12 inches falling across fire-stricken Bastrop county. 

You can visit the website used to get the image above HERE.

The remnants of Hurricane Patricia, now known as the “ghost of Patricia,” combined with a dynamic upper level storm system allowed a strong area of surface low pressure to develop just off of the Texas coast during the day on Saturday…as that surface low moved off to the northeast along the Texas coast, the pressure gradient tightened across south central Texas around the low’s counter-clockwise rotation, hence the reason for the strong, gusty northerly winds across the area since Saturday and the nice influx of cool Canadian air behind the rains. That low is now moving into the southeastern United States and is creating very gusty winds and widespread precipitation across the central and eastern Gulf Coast.

With higher pressure building in from the west, expect a stretch of nice and dry weather Tuesday through the day on Thursday. Highs will manage to rebound into the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday with overnight lows generally in the 50s before another weak front is set to move through the area during the afternoon/evening hours on Wednesday. Highs drop slightly behind that front on Thursday into the upper 70s to near 80°F thanks to a brief northerly wind shift. Southerly winds look to return as soon as Thursday night to the area.  

Halloween Weekend Rain Maker (Some stronger storms may be possible):

Okay folks, this is where things look to get interesting. I’m currently tracking a strong low pressure system currently located south of Alaska…this system will be digging southwest toward the west coast of the United States over the coming days and will eventually approach central Texas as a potent upper level storm system Thursday afternoon and through the area over the upcoming Halloween weekend. Moisture will come surging back into the area late Thursday into Friday ahead of the approaching trough, or atmospheric valley, of low pressure as upper level divergence increases across Texas. This upper level divergence creates favorable conditions for showers and storms across our area as early as Thursday night through Halloween. As of now, we have the potential to see several rounds of showers and storms across the area. While moisture levels will not be nearly as high across the area as they were this past weekend, they will still be plenty high to create the potential for heavy rainfall. The forecast strength of this approaching storm system and the strong southwesterly wind flow, and upper air divergence out ahead of it will work together to give us a good chance for showers and storms. Given the potentially dynamic nature of this system, the threat for a few stronger/marginally severe storms may be possible with small to moderate hail, gusty winds, and deadly cloud to ground lightning being the main threats. Still quite a bit of uncertainty on this system, however, we will begin to have a better grip and understanding of what lies ahead for us in the coming days. Please stay tuned to the latest forecast and understand that this upcoming weekend has the potential to be quite wet/stormy across the area.

500mb Height Map showing upper level vorticity, or spin in the atmosphere...the red/yellow blob over Louisiana and Mississippi is this past weekend's storm system, the mess south of Alaska is our next storm system! Pretty cool, huh?

Very early rainfall accumulation forecasts are estimating an additional 1-3 inches of rainfall may be possible across the area. 

Heavy Rainfall/Flash Flooding Risk

Forecast Discussion:

Heavy rainfall is likely across south central Texas beginning Thursday. Several ingredients are coming together to give us the potential for a significant rainfall event. Forecast rainfall accumulations of 3-6 inches likely across a large portion of central Texas with pockets of 8-10 inches of rain possible. Below is the latest statement on this weather event from the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

431 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2015

...RAINFALL LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING POSSIBLE...

RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE

LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH

THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME SPOTS.

THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THURSDAY

INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE

MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL ARE PORTIONS OF THE

EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND ANYWHERE ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE

35 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO FLOODING. IN

ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING COULD

LEAD TO DISRUPTIONS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD REACH

3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND ANYWHERE ALONG

AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. POCKETS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES

COULD OCCUR IN ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS THIS REGION. FARTHER WEST...

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE

WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE.

ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR

FORECASTS AS DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT BECOME

MORE CLEAR.

Weather Setup:

A deep trough of low pressure currently located over the desert southwest is helping to pump plentiful amounts of Gulf and Pacific moisture into the state of Texas. Tropical Storm Patricia, currently located south of Mexico in the eastern Pacific is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tomorrow afternoon. The approaching low will help to pull moisture from Patricia over Mexico and into Texas at the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. At the same time, copious amounts of deep tropical Gulf/Caribbean moisture will be streaming into the area at the lower levels.

The National Weather Service has nicknamed this set-up the “Squeeze Play”…make sure to check out their very informative graphic for a better understanding of the synopsis above.

The upper level lift provided by the approaching upper air storm system and an approaching surface frontal boundary will work to wring out all of that moisture over Texas. As the low passes to our east Sunday and higher pressure begins to build in rain chances will taper off followed by some drier and cooler conditions.

Flash Flood Risk:

The NWS has placed all of south central Texas in a moderate to high risk area for potential flash flooding. 

Remember, if you come across a flooded roadway, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN…I CANNOT STRESS THIS ENOUGH…NOT ONLY ARE YOU PUTTING YOUR LIFE IN DANGER BY CROSSING A FLOODED ROADWAY, BUT YOU ARE PUTTING FIRST RESPONDERS’ LIVES IN DANGER TOO.

IN ADDITION TO THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ALL OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP…REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS!!

FORECAST ACCUMULATED RAINFALL FROM THE WEATHER SERVICE (Wednesday through Sunday):

FORECAST ACCUMULATED RAINFALL from the Weather Prediction Center between now and Monday:

Rain is on the way!

Forecast Discussion

Upper level trough of low pressure over the western United States is allowing for surface pressure to drop across the front range of the Rockies in Colorado, these features have allowed south southeasterly winds to return to the area. Those southerly winds will work to increase moisture levels across the area. As that trough continues to push southeast, southwesterly winds aloft ahead of the approaching trough will help to pull in Pacific moisture over the state at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. At the same time, deep tropical Gulf moisture will be moving into central Texas at the surface. 

Western Trough (notice how the green lines dip to the south across the western U.S. That's the trough, or dip in the jet stream that creates lift (rising air) in our atmosphere (Image courtesy of the University of Arizona's Department of Atmospheric Sciences)

You will really begin to feel that moisture by Wednesday as dew points, or the measures of the amount of moisture in are air, are poised to climb into the 60s and lower 70s across the area. The higher the dew point, the more muggy the air, when you get dew points above 70º that is down right air you can wear. The approaching upper level lift associated with the trough or dip in the jet stream approaching the area from the west combined with a surface frontal boundary and loads of moisture will work together to bring several opportunities for rain across south central Texas. The heaviest of the rains look to arrive Thursday-Saturday. Latest forecast model guidance is indicating the potential for some very heavy rainfall across the area by the end of the week with some areas showing the potential of receiving upwards of 4-7 inches of rain, with many areas receiving over 2 inches. This would be a welcome sight across drought-stricken central Texas, however, there will be the potential for some flash flooding if all of this rain decides to fall on the same day over a short amount of time. That is something we will need to monitor over the coming days. Clouds and rain in the forecast for the middle to end of the week will help to keep highs down in the 70s across the area, however, it will feel quite soupy out there with all of the moisture in the air with overnight lows only dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s compared to the 40s and 50s we have been enjoying across the area the past few mornings. 

Forecast Rainfall Accumulation
Latest runs of the GFS Model indicating widespread heavy rain across the area 

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

***I will be analyzing the situation closely over the coming days and will update as necessary...as of right now, it appears that all of the necessary ingredients are coming together for a potentially heavy rainfall event across the area...remember, we are dealing with the weather and things are likely to change over the coming days, so please stay aware of the weather situation and know there is the potential for heavy rain across the area later this week***

***In addition to the potential for heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding, storms that develop mid to late week will have the potential to produce deadly cloud to ground lightning. Remember, when thunder roars, GO INDOORS!!***

Friday Evening Weather Update

Forecast Discussion

TGIF Everybody. It is shaping up to be a beautiful weekend across south central Texas. A weak cool front pushed through the area during the late morning/early afternoon hours…cooler and drier air will continue to move into the area from the northeast into the overnight hours and set us up for a nice fall weekend. I’m expecting highs in the 80s this weekend across the area, with overnight lows generally in the 50s to lower 60s depending on location and elevation. Low-lying, out-lying areas will experience the coolest overnight lows with metro areas, such as downtown Austin, staying closer to 60°F. A few of the lowest-lying rural locations may dip into the 40s.Skies should remain mostly sunny/mostly clear through the weekend and into early next week, however, some thin high clouds will be possible from time to time.

According to the latest forecast models, things look to become interesting as a major shift in this summer-like weather pattern (fingers crossed) is going to occur. An upper level low pressure system approaching the area from the desert southwest will help to pull Gulf of Mexico moisture into the area beginning early next week and continuing through the remainder of the week. This will help to moisten our atmosphere...with lift and moisture over the area the chance for rain looks to return to the area. Now what’s really interesting is that both of the two reliable forecast models I look at on a daily basis have persistently been indicating now, for the past several days, that an area of low pressure is going to form across the southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche…according to models, this area of low pressure will have the potential to develop into a late season tropical storm…in case you’re wondering, this potential storm would be given the name Kate.

The American forecast model wants to pull this tropical system up into south Texas and move it north along the IH-35 corridor, this scenario would bring lots of heavy rain, possible flooding, and strong gusty winds to the area…the European forecast model wants to keep this tropical system away from Texas and bring it onshore near Lafayette, Louisiana. That scenario would place Texas in an unfavorable position to receive much needed drought relief.

Obviously, this is still a long way’s out and will require constant watching over the next several days and into next week. Forecast models do not handle tropical systems well, as depending on the size of the system, can greatly impact the wind flow across adjacent areas, in turn greatly affecting who is going to receive beneficial, if not, overly beneficial rains late next week into next weekend. Just wanted to give you all a head’s up about what could potentially become a big weather story next week. A long overdue cool down would be possible behind this potential tropical system.

Hope you all have a wonderful weekend. Get out and enjoy the nice weather, but please keep in mind that the fire danger remains extremely high across the area and is likely to stay that way until we can get a good rainfall around here. 

Record Heat Possible Monday

Forecast Discussion

Image Courtesy of FOX 2 St. Louis

Hello everybody. I hope you all had a wonderful weekend. We officially topped out at 95ºF at Camp Mabry on Sunday afternoon missing the record high of 96ºF set back in 1926 by one degree! We tied the record high of 95ºF set back in 1991 at the airport. Get this, Monday is likely to be HOTTER!!

Why is it so darn HOT?

Well, we can thank several factors for the well-above normal warmth:

1) High Pressure aloft (sinking air aloft suppresses rain, let alone clouds from developing allowing for abundant sunshine
2) Southwesterly surface wind, is a down-sloping wind for us here in central Texas and a warming wind. This southwesterly wind flow tends to develop ahead of approaching storm systems/frontal boundaries from the west and northwest. Air is forced to sink from the higher elevations west and southwest of Austin and off of the mountains of northern Mexico. As that air sinks, it compresses, and heats up!
3) Drought! Moderate, severe, and even extreme drought across the area helps to boost temperatures. Remember, dry ground heats up a lot more efficiently than wet/moist grounds. 

All of the conditions listed above will come into play once again on Monday to set us up for a near, if not record hot day across the area. The record high at Camp Mabry for Monday is 98ºF set back in 1991, the airport's record high is 97ºF set back in 1991. A breezy southwesterly surface wind flow and west, southwesterly wind flow above the ground ahead of an approaching surface cold front will allow for temperatures to soar. The approaching frontal boundary actually works to add a few degrees to afternoon highs thanks to a phenomenon known as prefrontal heating. Highs Monday will be very near, if not at record levels.

Forecast 5 p.m. Temperatures across Texas on Monday (NAM 4KM model)

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Slight Cool Down 

A cold front will thankfully work its way through the area late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, putting an end to the record heat. There is a slight chance (less than 20% chance) for a brief shower or storm, especially along and east of IH-35 as the front moves through the area. Significantly drier and slightly cooler air pushes in behind the front for Tuesday and sticks around for the remainder of the week. Highs will drop into the upper 80s and lower 90s behind the front, with 50s and low 60s at night under mostly sunny/mostly clear skies. Another weak front arrives for next weekend, reinforcing the dry and mild conditions. Keeping my fingers crossed for some significant rains in the near future. Maybe next week!!

Forecast Lows early Wednesday (Refreshingly cool in the 50s and 60s state-wide)

Image courtesy of Tropical Tidbits

Rain Prospect Dwindling

Forecast Discussion:

Well folks, as I feared yesterday, it appears that the latest forecast model guidance has significantly trimmed our chances for appreciable precipitation here across south central Texas. The latest runs of the GFS Forecast Model, also known as the American Model, show NO rainfall accumulation between now and Sunday evening for a good majority of south central Texas. Why the sudden shift in the forecast? Well, the area of upper level low pressure, the thing that provides lift in our atmosphere is unfortunately, according to the latest model guidance, NOT going to move far enough east to have beneficial impacts on our area. On top of that, the upper level low (a.k.a. rain maker) is going to retrograde, or retreat back to the west allowing high pressure (sinking air) to rule supreme over Texas which will effectively squash our rainfall chances. The heaviest of the precipitation should remain well west of south central Texas, and as it looks now, west of the western Hill Country. While I'm not going to completely eliminate the rain chance across the area I am going to significantly reduce the likelihood of rain here on Thursday and Friday. The best opportunity for rain here along and east of the I-35 corridor looks to come on Friday with the majority of the scattered rain showers/thunderstorms staying west of Austin Thursday afternoon/evening. Rainfall accumulations are very tricky to forecast, but a best guess right now is for 0.10-0.25 inches of rain along I-35 with potentially higher totals west and lower totals east. 

GFS Forecast Rainfall Accumulation (now through Sunday evening)
Notice all of the white over central, north, and east Texas? That white shading basically means no rainfall accumulation...notice the greens, blues, and purples across west and far west Texas where some spots could receive over 2-3 inches of rain.

The Weather Prediction Center's Forecast Rainfall Accumulation reflects my current thinking as well. They have significantly decreased their forecast rainfall accumulation for south central Texas keeping the majority of the significant rains well west of our area.

Let's keep our fingers crossed that we get some good rains around here soon! I think it is still coming later this fall/winter, however, it's just really taking its time!

Rain Possible This Week

Forecast Discussion:

A large and potent upper level storm system, currently centered over southern California will continue to push southeast into northern Mexico and west Texas over the coming days. Upper level divergence ahead of this system will work to enhance surface low pressure over eastern New Mexico and southern Colorado. That drop in surface pressure will allow surface winds to turn south-southeasterly here across central Texas. That shift in wind will allow low-level Gulf of Mexico moisture to return to the area. We should really begin to notice an increase in humidity by Wednesday. At the same time, Pacific moisture will be flowing across the area in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. That Pacific moisture is in turn already in place right now as evidenced by the mid/upper level cloudiness around the area today and the spotty sprinkles and light rain showers. 

Current Position of the Upper Level Storm System (as of Monday afternoon)

Latest forecast models show this storm system approaching the area during the day on Wednesday and sticking around through the first half of the upcoming weekend before the system is forecast to retrograde, or move back, to the west allowing higher pressure to build into the area and effectively put an end to rain chances. At the same time this upper level storm approaches the area, a surface cold front will be moving into the state of Texas. Upper level lift from the storm system and dynamic surface lift along the front will help to generate several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms across the area beginning Thursday and ending Saturday. The National Weather Service has highlighted the possibility of some locally heavy rainfall across the area, especially late Thursday into Friday as the surface cold front and most favorable atmospheric conditions come into play. 

As of right now, it appears that the best chance for heavy rains will occur west of the Interstate 35 corridor and potentially even west of the eastern Hill Country/Highway 281 corridor that runs through Burnet and Blanco counties here in south central Texas. Latest forecast model rainfall accumulations are indicating there is the potential for 1-3 inches of rain to fall across the Hill Country with lesser amounts along and especially east of the Interstate 35 corridor. This is of course something I will continue to monitor over the coming days. The GFS, or American Forecast Model, one of the more reliable computer models I look at on a daily basis, is indicating that the heaviest rains will manage to stay west of the Austin Metro Area, obviously, that is something I will continue to monitor.

Latest Runs of the GFS Forecast Model are keeping the majority of the heaviest rainfall accumulation west of the Interstate 35 corridor:

It is great to see rain in the forecast because the majority of south central Texas, and the state of Texas for that matter, has slipped back into moderate, severe, and in some areas extreme drought conditions. The United States Drought Monitor is estimating that over 13 million people are dealing with abnormally dry/drought conditions across the state of Texas. Obviously, any rain that we can get is going to be a blessing. Below is the latest drought monitor for the state of Texas. Areas shaded in orange = severe drought, areas shaded in red = extreme drought, which is the second to worst drought category possible.

Latest Drought Monitor for Texas (issued last Thursday) and always available for you at this link:   http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

All Eyes on Hurricane Joaquin

HURRICANE JOAQUIN

As of the 11 p.m. EDT update from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Joaquin has rapidly intensified and is now a MAJOR CATEGORY THREE hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph and gusts as high as 140 mph. A hurricane is considered major when sustained surface winds exceed 110 mph. Joaquin is forecast to strengthen further to category 4 strength as early as tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon/evening with sustained winds of over 140 mph and gusts as high as 165 mph. The image below is Joaquin's latest official forecast track from the National Hurricane Center. It is important not to get caught up on the center track, but rather focus on the entire area shaded within the bold white lines. That area is known as the cone of uncertainty. The majority of the computer models, including the GFS (American forecast model) show Joaquin crashing into the eastern seaboard...the latest run of the GFS model sends Joaquin crashing into the North Carolina/Virginia coast during the wee hours of Sunday. There is still a lot of uncertainty on where Joaquin is going to make landfall, or if it even will do so. I write that, because the ECMWF, or European forecast model, another very important and generally very reliable model, takes Joaquin away from the east coast of the United States and out to sea. Regardless, heavy rainfall and potential flooding possible along the east coast over the coming days in response to a frontal system and an upper level low unrelated to Joaquin. If Joaquin decides to slam into the east coast, moisture/rain associated with the hurricane will only add insult to injury to the east coast flood threat. No doubt all eyes will be on Joaquin over the coming days. (Areas shaded in red are under a HURRICANE WARNING, that includes a good chunk of The Bahamas) where conditions will be deteriorating quickly as Joaquin approaches tonight into Thursday. You can keep up with all of the latest information and updates on Hurricane Joaquin at this link:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

National Hurricane Center Forecast Track (as of 10 p.m. CDT Wednesday)

National Hurricane Center's 10 p.m. Forecast Discussion on Hurricane Joaquin:
(The following is expert analysis and contains a lot of meteorological jargon...scroll down to "KEY MESSAGES" if you wish to read a simplified and more to the point analysis)

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

Joaquin has rapidly intensified during the past 24 hours with the
satellite presentation continuing to improve this evening.  The eye
has recently become apparent near the center of the very symmetric
central dense overcast.  An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that has been investigating the hurricane this evening has
measured peak 700 mb flight-level winds of 113 kt and 102 kt surface
winds from the SFMR.  These data support an initial intensity of
100 kt, making Joaquin the second major hurricane of the 2015
Atlantic hurricane season. NOTE: Communications problems have
delayed the public release of the Air Force reconnaissance data.

Joaquin continues to move slowly southwestward with an initial
motion estimate of 220/5 kt.  The hurricane is forecast to move
slowly southwestward or west-southwestward for another 24 hours or
so while it remains to the south of a narrow northeast to southwest
oriented ridge.  This ridge is expected to weaken by Friday as a
trough deepens and cuts off over the southeastern United States.
This should cause Joaquin to turn northward within 48 hours. The 18Z
runs of the GFS and HWRF remain in general agreement with the 12Z
UKMET and Canadian models moving Joaquin around the northeastern
portion of the cut-off low and bring the hurricane inland over the
Carolinas or mid-Atlantic states.  The 12Z ECMWF remains the outlier
by showing a track toward the northeast out to sea.  The NHC
forecast continues to follow the trend of the bulk of the guidance
and takes Joaquin toward the U.S east coast. The NHC track is
similar to the previous advisory and is once again east of the
multi-model consensus.  The NOAA G-IV aircraft has recently
completed its synoptic surveillance flight, and data collected
during this mission should be assimilated into the 0000 UTC models,
hopefully reducing the spread of the track guidance.

The upper-level wind pattern over the hurricane is forecast by the
global models to become even more conducive during the next couple
of days.  This favors additional intensification, with the only
possible limiting factors being upwelling of cool SSTs beneath the
slow-moving hurricane and eyewall cycles which could cause some
fluctuations in intensity.  By 72 hours, increasing southwesterly
shear, dry air intrusion, and lower SSTs are expected to cause
gradual weakening.  The updated NHC intensity forecast has been
significantly increased from the previous advisory primarily due to
the higher initial intensity. The official forecast is between the
lower statistical guidance and the higher HWRF during the first
36-48 hours, and is near the SHIPS/LGEM guidance after that time.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Preparations to protect life and property within the warning
areas in the Central Bahamas should be completed now.

2.  Confidence in the details of the forecast after 72 hours remains
low, since we have one normally excellent model that keeps Joaquin
far away from the United States east coast.   The range of possible
outcomes is still large, and includes the possibility of a major
hurricane landfall in the Carolinas.

3.  Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with
as much data as possible.  The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of
missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service
has begun launching extra balloon soundings.

4.  Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days
away, it's too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge
impacts from Joaquin in the United States.  Regardless of Joaquin's
track, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate coastal
flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern
states through the weekend.

5.  A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be
required as early as Thursday evening.

6. Many portions of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing
heavy rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. These
heavy rains are likely to continue for the next few days, even if
the center of Joaquin stays offshore.  The resulting inland flood
potential could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast, and even more substantial inland flooding is
possible if Joaquin later passes near or over these same areas.

What's Steering Joaquin???

A deepening or strengthening trough, or line, of low pressure in the mid levels of the atmosphere and a blocking ridge of high pressure over the northern Atlantic will work together to steer Joaquin from its current position east of The Bahamas north towards the eastern seaboard. This should begin to take place over the coming days as low pressure deepens over the southeastern United States. Remember, air flows counter-clockwise into an area of low pressure in the northern hemisphere...the south-southeasterly wind flow ahead of the low pressure system will help to steer Joaquin north. See image below.

GFS 18z 30 September 2015 Valid 12z Saturday October 03 2015
***This is just a snapshot of what one forecast model believes is going to happen...newer model runs just coming in now are painting a different picture. Models will continue to change over the coming days***

South Central Texas Weather Update

The temperature soared to 95°F this afternoon in Austin missing the record high of 97°F set back in 1923 by two degrees. A weak and poorly-defined frontal boundary is working its way across the state. Behind the front, a significantly drier and slightly cooler air mass will be moving into the area over the coming days on northerly winds aloft and at the surface behind this boundary. Noticeably drier and slightly cooler for this upcoming weekend with highs closer to average for this time of year in the mid to upper 80s. With that dry air in place, mornings and evenings will feel especially great. Low temperatures in out-lying low-lying areas will drop into the mid to upper 50s with lower 60s expected within the Austin area. Slowly, but surely our weather pattern is going to be taking a turn for the better, and by better I mean cooler. Enjoy!