Rain Prospect Dwindling

Forecast Discussion:

Well folks, as I feared yesterday, it appears that the latest forecast model guidance has significantly trimmed our chances for appreciable precipitation here across south central Texas. The latest runs of the GFS Forecast Model, also known as the American Model, show NO rainfall accumulation between now and Sunday evening for a good majority of south central Texas. Why the sudden shift in the forecast? Well, the area of upper level low pressure, the thing that provides lift in our atmosphere is unfortunately, according to the latest model guidance, NOT going to move far enough east to have beneficial impacts on our area. On top of that, the upper level low (a.k.a. rain maker) is going to retrograde, or retreat back to the west allowing high pressure (sinking air) to rule supreme over Texas which will effectively squash our rainfall chances. The heaviest of the precipitation should remain well west of south central Texas, and as it looks now, west of the western Hill Country. While I'm not going to completely eliminate the rain chance across the area I am going to significantly reduce the likelihood of rain here on Thursday and Friday. The best opportunity for rain here along and east of the I-35 corridor looks to come on Friday with the majority of the scattered rain showers/thunderstorms staying west of Austin Thursday afternoon/evening. Rainfall accumulations are very tricky to forecast, but a best guess right now is for 0.10-0.25 inches of rain along I-35 with potentially higher totals west and lower totals east. 

GFS Forecast Rainfall Accumulation (now through Sunday evening)
Notice all of the white over central, north, and east Texas? That white shading basically means no rainfall accumulation...notice the greens, blues, and purples across west and far west Texas where some spots could receive over 2-3 inches of rain.

The Weather Prediction Center's Forecast Rainfall Accumulation reflects my current thinking as well. They have significantly decreased their forecast rainfall accumulation for south central Texas keeping the majority of the significant rains well west of our area.

Let's keep our fingers crossed that we get some good rains around here soon! I think it is still coming later this fall/winter, however, it's just really taking its time!