Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Potential Severe Weather Risk on Friday

Forecast Discussion:

Good Wednesday afternoon. Hope you are all doing well.
A gusty, dry cool front has now passed through all of south central Texas as of 1 p.m. CDT and is now making its way south and east towards the Texas coast and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico. With little to no moisture out ahead of this front and essentially stable atmospheric conditions, this front came through the area without any precipitation. Breezy and slightly cooler this afternoon with highs very near, if not slightly above the 80°F mark. Mostly clear and cool overnight tonight with lows dipping into the 50s, a few areas of high clouds may drift across the region from time to time.

Friday Severe Weather Threat:

As a dynamic upper level Pacific storm system approaches the area late tomorrow into Friday, surface pressure will begin to drop here across south central Texas and help to pull the cool front that moved through here today back north as a warm front late Thursday into Friday. That returning southerly wind will help to increase Gulf of Mexico moisture across the area effectively recharging our atmosphere for the approaching storm system. I’ll be watching Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning for some potentially stronger, possibly severe, thunderstorms. Regardless of the severe weather threat, forecast model guidance is currently indicating an additional 1-3 inches of rain is possible across the area with some isolated locations receiving upwards of 4 inches of rain. As it looks right now, Halloween afternoon/evening should be dry here across central Texas as the bulk of the storm system should be located to our east at that time, allowing cooler, drier continental air to move into the area that will set us up for a beautiful Sunday across the area with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s!

The Storm Prediction Center, abbreviated SPC, has placed all of south central Texas including the Austin and San Antonio Metro areas under a MARGINAL RISK for severe storms on Friday. Keep in mind this is a relatively low risk, however, the potential is there for these storms to produce some strong, gusty winds of 58 mph or greater and potentially a tornado or two. In addition to those threats, heavy rainfall and deadly cloud to ground lightning will accompany all storms.

Area shaded in dark green below is under a MARGINAL RISK for severe weather on Friday:





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