Storms likely Friday/Saturday AM

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Low and mid-level moisture is already beginning to surge north into Central Texas out ahead of a vigorous Pacific upper level storm system moving in from the west…the cold front that moved through here yesterday is currently located near Corpus Christi and extends back east over the northern Gulf of Mexico. This front will work back north as a warm front through the afternoon and evening hours into early Friday and replenish our atmosphere with rich, tropical Gulf moisture just in time for the upper air storm system to create lift and kick off showers and storms across the area Friday morning through midday Saturday. I think we are going to see a couple of rounds of heavy showers and storms here across central Texas Friday through Saturday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has us in the MARGINAL RISK category for severe weather on Friday, however, in their recent forecast discussions, they may be increasing that risk level into the SLIGHT RISK category. Storms that develop on Friday/Friday night will have the potential to become severe with pocket-change sized hail, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes. Of course heavy rainfall and deadly cloud to ground lightning will accompany all storms that develop. Remember, if a tornado warning is issued you want to get to the lowest level of the structure you are in and put yourself in the most interior room. Put as many walls between you and the outside as possible.  

Current Visible Satellite Imagery (Texas/western Gulf of Mexico)...notice the clouds surging north and the skinny line over the Gulf, that's the front!

Forecast Radar Friday Morning (4KM NAM Model)

Forecast rainfall accumulation continuing to indicate a widespread 1-3 inches of rain across the area, with the potential for 3-5 inches in some locations. Due to saturated soils from heavy rains this past weekend, some minor flash flooding may be a concern and in turn create some low water crossings across the area. Please remember, TURN AROUND, DON’T DROWN when you come across a flooded roadway.  

LET'S REMAIN WEATHER AWARE!!! PLEASE HEED ALL WATCHES/WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.