Weekend Storm Chance/Early Look at Christmas

Upper level storm system currently affecting the west coast of the United States will continue to push east over the weekend and affect us here in Texas by Sunday. Warm and mild weekend in store with highs in the lower to middle 70s and lows in the upper 50s to near 60°F. Southerly winds will begin to pick up across the area Saturday afternoon and will be rather breezy on Sunday ahead of the storm system moving into the state. Spotty sprinkles or a very light rain shower are possible Sunday morning. Highs Sunday afternoon will make the lower 70s ahead of a Pacific Cold Front that will work its way through the area from west to east during the afternoon and evening hours. The warm, moist air out ahead of the front will be forced to rise in turn giving us a 50% chance for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon/evening, possibly lingering into the early morning hours on Monday depending on how quick this weather system pushes through the area. Some of the storms that develop on Sunday will have the potential to become strong with heavy rain and deadly cloud to ground lightning. The severe weather threat on Sunday is not zero, however, it is not very likely. With that mentioned, the Storm Prediction Center has placed a large swath of the central United States from Kansas south into central Texas under the MARGINAL RISK category for severe weather. What this means is that there is a 5% chance that any location in central Texas from Austin north will see severe weather. A thunderstorm is defined as severe when it produces hail quarter size (1 inch in diameter) and larger, and/or winds of 58 mph or greater, and/or a tornado. 

STORM PREDICTION CENTER MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SUNDAY:
Click HERE to go the Storm Prediction Center's Website

Quick refresher on watches/warnings issued by the National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center as defined by the National Weather Service:

WEATHER WATCH: atmospheric conditions are FAVORABLE for the type of weather specified (generally issued for a larger geographic area for a longer time span; 4-6 potentially up to 24 to 48 hours)

WEATHER WARNING: the type of weather specified is IMMINENT/OCCURRING and is and an immediate threat to life and/or property (smaller geographic area; shorter time span of 1/2 to 1 hour)...proper action should be taken to protect life and/or property. 

FORECAST RADAR FOR SUNDAY EVENING (NAM FORECAST MODEL):
Model forecasting a line of storms to develop from Kansas all the way south into central Texas along the frontal boundary (I'm expecting rainfall totals between 0.25 to as much as an inch in spots across the area thanks to Sunday's storms. Some areas may receive significantly less. It all depends on how solid the line of storms is when it moves through the area. If there are lots of gaps in the line of storms, as I'm expecting there will be, many folks may be left with little to no rainfall accumulation---Hope I'm wrong)

Long Range Outlook:

Cooler weather moves in behind the front on Monday with highs dropping into the 60s for highs; 40s expected across the area Monday night/Tuesday morning of next week. Clouds quickly increase across the area by Tuesday of next week ahead of another weather disturbance that will bring us several days of light rain chances by the middle/end of next week. Highs only in the 50s Tuesday/Wednesday with light rain possible Wednesday through Friday ahead of another front that as or right now, looks to drop highs into the 50s for the days leading up to Christmas with lows in the 30s and 40s...the general pattern for Christmas week looks cooler with some long range models predicting a possible freeze after Christmas Day. Of course, forecasting that far out in the future should be taken lightly and please understand that nothing is set in stone when it comes to the weather.