We officially topped out at 74ºF this afternoon at both Camp Mabry and Austin Bergstrom International Airport. A much cooler air mass is settling into the region tonight and will set us up for a MUCH COOLER Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows will dip into the 40s across most areas tonight with some mid to upper 30s likely across the Hill Country. A chilly start to the day on Tuesday will give way to a mostly sunny and cool afternoon with highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s area wide. Clouds will be on the increase in a hurry from the west and southwest Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of a quickly approaching trough of low pressure (elongated area of lower atmospheric pressure) currently affecting California and the desert southwest.
The Big Red L represents the trough (TROF) of low pressure and the red arrow depicts its forecast track: For a really cool loop of this map in motion click HERE. This map depicts water vapor which basically shows mid and high level moisture in the atmosphere. The green lines are isobars (lines of equal atmospheric pressure) and are drawn on to help find areas of high and low pressure around 18,500 feet above the earth's surface.
Rain is a good bet on Wednesday as warm, moist air rides over the cooler air here at the surface thanks to the approaching trough. Get ready for a dreary, chilly and showery day on Wednesday with temperatures likely to stay in the 40s and 50s all day. Rain on Wednesday will be light to moderate in intensity. This is not the right weather set-up for big storms or heavy rainfall. Dense fog may become an issue late Wednesday into Thursday morning as much warmer air from the south advects north into central Texas. That warmer air will push highs back into the lower 60s ahead of another area of low pressure that will push across Texas from west to east Thursday and Friday. Good chance for showers on Thursday with some heavier showers and possible thundershowers Thursday night into early Friday morning ahead of a cold front that will usher in more chilly air into the area from the northwest and clear out our skies on Friday afternoon. Highs hover into the 50s to near 60ºF Saturday through Monday of next week with lows in the upper 30s and 40s. More light rain possible early next week with another weather system from the west. Latest model guidance showing a mild Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with highs in the 60s, possibly low 70s ahead of a strong cold front that would push through the region late Christmas Day into the day after Christmas. (Please keep in mind this is a very early look at the Christmas forecast. Weather has a mind of its own and this is only one model's take on what is going to happen).
Here's a look at Forecast Simulated Radar Reflectivity for 3 P.M. Wednesday afternoon:
Latest forecast guidance is forecasting 1/2 to 1 inch of rain to fall across a good portion of central Texas between Wednesday morning and Friday afternoon. Keep your fingers crossed that these forecasts verify. We can use every drop we can get here in central Texas. No freezes likely between now and Christmas Eve...that may not be the case for the days after Christmas if latest model data verifies. The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting a good 1-2 inches of rainfall falling across a good chunk of central Texas over the next 5 days (see image below):
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