With Christmas right around the corner, everybody wants to know what the weather is going to be like. To be honest, there are a lot of ups and downs over the next seven to ten days. As it looks right now, we have three separate cold fronts lined up to move through Texas between now and the end of the month. Each front looks to be progressively stronger.
We have been trapped under the clouds here along the I-35 corridor for the past several days now, however, portions of the Hill Country managed to see some this afternoon (check out the Visible Satellite Imagery from earlier today below). Clouds will hang on tough again tonight, but SHOULD slowly begin to break up and allow for some sun breaks by Sunday afternoon. A returning southerly wind flow and some afternoon sun will help highs temperatures climb 5-7°F across the area for Sunday after a chilly start to the day in the 40s. Highs Sunday afternoon will range from the upper 50s in the coolest locations to the lower 60s in the warmest spots. No rain is expected on Sunday, however, if clouds decide to remain stubborn highs will only make the upper 50s across central Texas.
Saturday Afternoon Visible Satellite Image of Texas:
(Monochrome view of Texas from space this afternoon, yellow lines overlaid on top of the satellite image represent state and county outlines)
As a strong and deep trough of low pressure builds down into Texas on Monday a surface area of lower pressure is expected to develop across north Texas. In response to the counter-clockwise wind flow around that area of surface low pressure our winds across central Texas will be out of the south southwest on Monday. The southwesterly component to the wind on Monday combined with strong southwesterly winds blowing around 4-5,000 feet above us will ensure a warmer day across south central Texas with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s under what should be a mainly sunny sky. If some stubborn low clouds were to stick around along and east of I-35, highs may only make the upper 60s. I mention this because a few of the latest forecast models want to keep some stubborn low-clouds around the area Monday.
Forecast Highs Monday (Snapshot of the NAM 4 KM High Resolution Model):
I've circled where the model believes low clouds could hang tough
The same deep trough of low pressure that will bring us the spring-like conditions on Monday afternoon will kick the surface low in north Texas to the east by early Tuesday morning. As that surface low is forced east by a strong disturbance riding the jet stream (river of fast-moving air) around the outer fringes of the trough, the door will open for a strong cold front to push through south central Texas Tuesday morning. A spotty light shower or two possible with the front as it crosses eastern portions of south central Texas, however, the majority, if not all of central Texas will remain dry. Strong northerly winds behind the front on Tuesday morning will knock highs into the 50s Tuesday afternoon under what should be a mostly sunny sky. North northwest winds sustained between 15-20 mph gusting to 30 mph will ensure a brisk feel to the day on Tuesday. Lows Tuesday night will drop into the 30s area wide. We will wake up to temperatures in the mid 30s right in Austin Wednesday (Christmas Eve morning). Areas north and northwest of Austin may receive a light freeze, however, a brisk north wind will not allow for a hard freeze.
Here's a look at what the GFS Forecast Model believes that trough of low pressure will look like on Tuesday over the center of the country...this map is for 500 mb (18,500 feet above sea level) The 500 mb level is extremely important in determining where weather systems (mid and upper level highs and lows) are headed: Can you spot the ridges and troughs?
Deep South Severe Weather Threat: Ahead of that strong, deep trough of low pressure that will be over Texas on Tuesday, severe weather is possible for areas along the Gulf Coast and Deep South from Louisiana to Florida. The Storm Prediction Center is monitoring all areas shaded in yellow on the map below for the possibility of severe weather on Tuesday (December 23). For a fantastic, detailed look at the possibility of severe weather for the Deep South on Tuesday, click HERE.
Storm Prediction Center Severe Weather Risk Area for Tuesday, December 23, 2014:
Stay up to date with the latest severe weather outlooks HERE.
Mostly sunny and pleasant on Christmas Eve after a cold start to the day with highs rebounding into the upper 50s to lower 60s...clear and chilly during the evening hours with temperatures quickly dropping into the 40s to lower 50s after sunset. Lows drop into the 30s to lower 40s area wide by Christmas morning. A returning southerly wind Wednesday night will help to keep the area above freezing. However, it is not out of the question for the lowest-lying locations across the area to receive a very light freeze. Sunny, beautiful and breezy on Christmas Day with highs in to the mid to upper 60s. Highs in the upper 60s to near 70°F for the Friday after Christmas ahead of our second cold front that is set to move through the region late Friday evening. As it looks right now, highs next weekend look to be quite chilly in the 50s with lows in the 30s. A fairly widespread freeze is possible across south central Texas next Saturday night/Sunday morning.
Looking towards the end of the month and into the new year, long range models continue to indicate a transition to MUCH COLDER weather across a good chunk of the lower 48. In their 8-14 day outlook, the Climate Prediction Center is indicating below normal temperatures for much of the lower 48 between December 26-January 3, 2015. Of course, this is a long range forecast and things are likely to change between now and then, overall it looks to be turning significantly colder for a good portion of the U.S. (including Texas) late this month into the new year.
Climate Prediction Center 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook:
Click HERE to go to their website
A big ridge of high pressure is forecast to build across Alaska and northwestern Canada late this month...that ridge of high pressure helps to dislodge cold, Arctic Air and push it south into the lower 48. Big bulls eye of red and magenta over Alaska and northwestern Canada represents that big ridge of high pressure. That ridge of high pressure helps to deepen low pressure to the east of it and that dip in the jet stream is what pulls that frigid air south. Pretty cool, huh? Once that cold, dense air mass is tapped it is hard to stop it from pouring south into the lower 48...I like to think of those cold Canadian, and especially arctic air masses as bowling balls.
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