Good Monday evening everybody. I hope you all had a fantastic weekend. After a chilly, cloudy weekend southwesterly surface winds today in response to an approaching cold front and upper level disturbance allowed for temperatures to soar into the upper 60s and 70s across south central Texas today. We officially topped out at 77°F this afternoon at Camp Mabry (that's 15 degrees above the "normal" high of 62°F for this time of year).
A strong and deepening trough of low pressure across the center of the country will continue to build south into Texas tonight and into Tuesday. This deepening trough of low pressure will push a strong cold front and upper level disturbance across the area overnight tonight into Tuesday morning. This disturbance will be riding the outer periphery of the trough of low pressure (see image below).
Current Location of the Disturbance:
Big Red "L" over Nebraska and South Dakota represents position of large upper level low...Red "Circle" indicates current position of upper level disturbance set to move through central Texas late tonight into Tuesday Morning...Red "arrows" represent the steering winds (Jet Stream)...the big trough over the middle of the country is clearly visible. The disturbance is currently producing light rain and snow across northeastern New Mexico and portions of the Texas Panhandle
As the disturbance crosses the area overnight tonight into Tuesday, showers and a rumble of thunder will be possible; highest rainfall chances will come for northern portions of south central Texas from the Austin Metro Area and points north all the way up into the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex and southern Oklahoma. Disturbance will be moving fast and rain that falls should be light. Given those two factors, rainfall accumulation will be very light (<0.15 inches). It wouldn't surprise me if we don't get more than a few sprinkles or very light showers around Austin Tuesday morning.
Forecast Radar (8 a.m. Tuesday Morning)
Greatest energy with this disturbance looks to pass just north of south central Texas according to the latest high resolution NAM Model...Williamson County north to Dallas appear to have the best shot at seeing rain, of course if this system decides to track a bit farther south, rain chances would increase for us here in south central Texas
Forecast Accumulated Rainfall
Again, best rainfall chances look to move just north of the area...that's where the higher rainfall accumulations are likely to occur
In addition to the chance for rain across the area, MUCH COLDER weather will move in behind a strong early-morning cold front. Highs tomorrow (Tuesday) will actually occur after midnight ahead of the cold front. Cold front will arrive in the Hill Country first between 5-8 a.m. Tuesday morning. The front will then blow into the Austin Metro Area between 8-10 a.m. and should push through the remainder of eastern portions of central Texas between 10-11 a.m. Tuesday morning. Winds will be quite gusty behind the front sustained between 10-20 mph out of the north northwest with gusts between 25-30 mph likely. Our highs on Tuesday will be in the upper 50s (just after midnight) and drop into the 40s and lower 50s for the remainder of the day Tuesday behind the front. Breezy north winds and mostly cloudy skies will make it feel even colder. Especially since we saw temperatures in the 70s today. Clouds clear from northwest to southeast across the area late Tuesday into early Wednesday as the disturbance/cold front push east of the area. Areas of the Gulf Coast/Deep South may get some severe weather out of this system Tuesday afternoon/early Wednesday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted those areas in the map below.
Forecast position of Front 9 a.m. Tuesday Morning
Front will be pushing into the I-35 corridor (windy & much colder conditions can be expected behind front)
Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook
Areas shaded in YELLOW have a 15% chance of seeing severe weather (Hail 1" in diameter or greater and/or winds of 58 mph or greater and/or a tornado)
Christmas Eve Forecast: Chilly start to the day with temperatures in the 30s area wide will give way to a SUNNY, BREEZY, AND CHILLY afternoon with highs only topping out in the upper 40s to lower 50s (48-53°F range)...a breezy north wind will ensure a brisk, chilly day for all of south central Texas. Temperatures Christmas Eve into early Christmas Morning will bottom out in the 28-34°F range. A freeze is likely for all low-lying and out-lying areas. The urban heat island effect will should keep the center of Austin a degree or two above freezing, however, low-lying spots within the city limits should prepare for a light freeze.
Christmas Morning Forecast Lows
***IF WINDS REMAIN BREEZY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MORE LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SAFELY ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK, HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL BE COLD WITH TEMPS IN THE 30s***
Christmas Day and after: COLD morning will give way to a sunny, cool and breezy afternoon with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s across the area. Southerly winds will be blowing 10-15 mph with higher gusts. Southerly winds will keep temperatures well above freezing across the area Christmas Night into Friday morning in the 40s. Don't get me wrong, it will still be quite chilly with those breezy southerly winds.
Sunny and pleasant on Friday after Christmas with highs in the mid to upper 60s area wide on southerly winds ahead of a late evening cold front that will blow through and cool us off for the weekend with highs dipping back down into the 50s for Saturday and Sunday. There is a slight chance for some showers late Friday into early Saturday with the front. A freeze is possible for low-lying out-lying locations Saturday night.
Arctic Blast Possible Before New Year's
Long-range forecast models continue to indicate a significant change in the weather pattern as we head into the days before New Year's Eve. A strong ridge of high pressure is still forecast to develop across Alaska and northwest Canada. That ridge works to deepen low pressure to east and send lots of frigid, Arctic Air south into the lower 48. The long-range GFS Model shows temperatures running some 15-30 degrees COLDER THAN NORMAL for late December. New Year's Eve and New Year's Day have the potential to be pretty cold across central Texas with hard freezes possible. Still way too early to know for sure, but all forecast models continue to hint and indicate that we are in for some significantly colder weather to end the month of December and ring in the new year. Not just here in Texas, but across a good chunk of the central and eastern United States.
Forecast Temperatures for Midnight New Year's Day 2015-BRRR!!!
GFS Model forecasting a large swath of 15-30 degree below normal temperatures in the middle of the country later this month
Big Ridge (Red/Magenta Blob) forecast to develop over northwestern Canada/Alaska...that will send frigid air south into the lower 48
***Please understand that this blog post is just a forecast and is subject to change***
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