As a potent upper level low pressure system moves across central Texas on Saturday showers and thunderstorms will become likely. Some of the storms that develop will become strong and/or severe with hail, damaging winds, and even the possibility for a few isolated tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed all of central Texas under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe weather on Saturday. What this means is that any one location in central Texas has a 15% chance of seeing severe weather. Along with the threat for severe weather, there is the potential to see a widespread 1-2 inches of rain across the area with highest totals expected to be found along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor.
SLIGHT RISK=YELLOW SHADED AREA:
As the upper level storm system approaches Texas from the west, it causes air to converge, rise, and diverge aloft. Warm, humid air at the surface is forced to rise into significantly colder air aloft allowing for thunderstorms to develop. In the northern hemisphere, areas of low pressure spin counter-clockwise. At the surface, this upper level storm system will be pushing a Pacific Frontal Boundary across the state. Ahead of this frontal boundary is where the showers and thunderstorms will form. Once the front clears the area by late Saturday evening, the storm threat will diminish and skies will clear from west to east as much drier and more stable Continental air mass (air that originates over the desert southwest and the deserts of northern Mexico) moves into the area. West southwesterly winds on Sunday will allow for highs to climb into the mid to upper 70s area wide under a mainly sunny sky.
Storm System as seen on Water Vapor Imagery (Red L=storm's location Friday evening):
Water Vapor Imagery Loop: Can you spot the counter-clockwise rotation south of Arizona? That's the upper level low!!
FORECAST RADAR IMAGERY (NAM 4 KM HI-RES MODEL):
***WAVES OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS AS THE PACIFIC FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST***
(Loop starts at 9 a.m. Saturday and runs through Sunday Midnight)
***PLEASE STAY WEATHER AWARE DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY AND KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY***
WEATHER TIMELINE:
Friday Night: Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms as upper level low continues to move closer to Texas; a few strong storms are not out of the question with the main threats from those storms being heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. Mild with lows in the 60s with a south wind; 60% chance of rain
Saturday: Thunderstorms likely; some of the storms that develop will become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and possibly an isolated tornado or two...we are likely to see several rounds of storms during the day. Highs will be in the lower 70s; 100% chance of rain
Saturday Night: Pacific Front moves through the area during the late evening hours putting an end to storm chances; skies clear overnight from west to east as drier air moves into the region. Cooler with lows in the 50s
Sunday: Sunny, breezy and warm with highs in the mid to upper 70s! Enjoy!
Sunday Night: Cold Front moves through the area dropping lows into the 40s under a mostly clear sky
Monday-Friday of next week: Sunny/clear with highs in the 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s...beautiful fall weather! Enjoy!
SEVEN DAY FORECAST:
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