Early Season Arctic Blast Next Week!

TGIF everybody! There is a lot to talk about in the weather department so let's get right to it. The rain that we saw over the last several days was a very welcome sight and overall a beneficial rain for central Texas. Unfortunately, it is going to take a lot more rainfall events like that to fill up the Highland Lakes. Everybody in central Texas picked up over an inch of rain with several locations receiving 2-4 inches of rain. 

A really cool way to check out rainfall totals from the area is through the LCRA's Hydromet Network. Use the menu on the left-hand side of the website to display lots of different data from across the region, including temperature, rainfall, humidity, and lots more. Click HERE to access the website. It works just like any other Google Map application so feel free to zoom way down to your neighborhood. 

NEXT WEEK'S ARCTIC BLAST:

Would you believe it if I told you the Arctic Air getting ready to be unleashed on the central and eastern U.S. next week can actually be attributed to what was once Super Typhoon Nuri, the equivalent of a category 5 hurricane that moved through the western Pacific earlier this week, just east of Japan. As Nuri continues to move farther north into colder waters of the northern Pacific it has transitioned from being a warm-core low pressure system to a cold-core low pressure system, basically Nuri has lost its tropical characteristics. Meteorologists refer to a tropical cyclone that loses its tropical characteristics as an extra-tropical cyclone. As extra-tropical cyclone Nuri crosses the northern Pacific it is forecast to greatly strengthen thanks to a strong jet stream and is likely to go down in history as one of the most powerful low pressure systems to every develop in the Pacific and it has its eye set on Alaska. Weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, says the all-time low pressure record for Alaska is 926 mb set back at Dutch Harbor on October 25, 1977. Extra-tropical Nuri has a good chance of beating that record if its center passed over the Aleutian Islands of Alaska on Saturday morning. Hurricane force winds and very rough seas, with waves as high as 45-50 feet possible across Alaska's Aleutian Islands.

Super Typhoon Nuri earlier this week (South of Japan): Photo was taken November 4th

Okay, so how is this going to affect us here in Texas. Well, this unusually strong area of low pressure will amplify a ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific and across the west coast of the United States to build way into the Alaska, the Arctic Circle and northwestern Canada. As that ridge of high pressure amplifies it will allow for a trough of low pressure to deepen to its east across central Canada and the lower 48...this unusually strong ridge of high pressure to the west and strong trough over much of the U.S. will help to pull very cold Arctic air from the Arctic Circle and even Siberia down into the central and eastern U.S. early next week.

Weather Set-Up (Described in paragraph above):

FRONT'S ARRIVAL/DAY BY DAY FORECAST

The much anticipated cold front will arrive in central Texas early Tuesday morning (Veteran's Day Morning). Ahead of the front on Monday, southwesterly surface winds will push highs well into the 70s across the area.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny, mild, and breezy with highs in the mid to upper 70s; SSW wind 10-20 mph

TUESDAY: Arctic Front pushes through central Texas between midnight to 7 a.m. The front will likely sweep through the area dry as moisture levels across the area will not be sufficient to produce rain...strong northerly winds develop quickly behind the front keeping temperatures in the 50s all day on Tuesday under a mostly sunny sky...north winds will be kicking 15-25 mph with gusts over 30-35 mph likely.

GFS Model Showing Front arriving early Tuesday Morning:

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear, cold and gusty with temperatures dropping into upper 30s to lower 40s across the area

WEDNESDAY: COLD morning with temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s (wind chills in the lower 30s). Highs will struggle to reach the lower 50s across the area with some locations not getting out of the 40s under a mostly sunny sky.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Lows drop into the 30s area wide (a few locations across the western and northern Hill Country may receive a light freeze) Temps: 34-39°F

GFS Forecast Lows Wednesday Night: 

THURSDAY: Sunny and chilly with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s

THURSDAY NIGHT: Lows drop back into the 30s; low-lying spots may get a light freeze

Thursday Night Forecast Lows: 

Warming trend takes highs back into the upper 50s to lower 60s next weekend. Long range models indicate a second blast of Arctic Air possible by the beginning of the week after next, but I'll have to continue to watch for model consistency.