Powerful Storm System

Good Sunday afternoon everybody. Surface low pressure over the Texas Panhandle is allowing for breezy southerly winds across the area. Those southerly winds are increasing the moisture levels across the area in advance of a stronger upper level low pressure system and its attendant WINDY frontal boundary that will blast through the area overnight. We are currently up to 72ºF here in Austin with a southerly wind gusting to 22 mph.

Surface Low Clearly Visible on High Resolution Wind Map: http://hint.fm/wind/

The front and low pressure system are still located west of El Paso right now, however, winds ahead of the system are now gusting over 40 mph in El Paso with blowing dust. Those winds may gust as high as 70 mph in El Paso later this afternoon!

 Ahead of this system there is a SLIGHT RISK of SEVERE WEATHER overnight tonight for the northwestern Hill Country and points north towards the Oklahoma Border. As the front slams into the increasing moisture over central Texas, a skinny line of showers and storms will form and move through the area overnight. Storms northwest of central Texas have the potential to produce hail and gusty winds.

Risk Area:

 High Res Forecast Radar:

 High Res 500mb winds and vorticity (18,000 feet aloft):

High Res 850mb pressure (5,000 feet aloft) Closely positioned black lines over Texas indicate very tight pressure gradient which means very windy conditions:

Behind the line of rain (the frontal boundary) winds will abruptly shift direction to the west northwest and sustain themselves between 20-30 mph for Monday with gusts as high as 45 mph possible. The National Weather Service has placed all of of central Texas, south Texas, and north Texas under a WIND ADVISORY and a RED FLAG WARNING for high fire danger. Behind this system (the cold sector) in the Panhandle, Oklahoma, and Kansas, Blizzard Warnings will be in effect. As much as 14 inches of snow may fall across the Texas-Oklahoma Border! Wow!

Watches and Warnings across the State of Texas:

Here's a look at how much snow the National Weather Service in Amarillo is forecasting to fall:

WINDY Weather on the Way!

Good afternoon everybody! What a beautiful day it is. As of 3 p.m. we are up to 70ºF here in Austin with a breezy northerly wind. Tonight, under a mostly clear sky temps will fall back into the 40s area wide. 

Sunday's Forecast: Chilly start will give way to a mostly sunny, breezy, and warm afternoon with highs in the middle to upper 70s expected area wide. Clouds will increase from the west through the afternoon and into the evening ahead of a fast-moving low pressure system and a WINDY cold front that will blow through central Texas late Sunday into the early morning hours of Monday. There is a 50% chance for a skinny line of showers and thunderstorms to blow through the region as the front sweeps through. Rainfall accumulation will not be significant. Behind the front winds will shift from the southeast to the northwest and blow hard sustained between 15-25 mph with gusts as high as 35-40 mph likely. Those strong winds will persist through the day Monday allowing for cooler air to filter into the region. Therefore, highs will only manage the 60s on Monday under a mostly sunny sky. Another major snow maker is on the way for Oklahoma, the Texas Panhandle, and Kansas on Monday. Snow will extend as far south as Lubbock and northwestern portions of north Texas.

Forecast Highs on Sunday:

 Breezy southerly winds on Sunday:

Monday's Weather Setup: As the low pressure and front move east, severe storms are possible along the Gulf Coast from Mississippi to Florida.

Future Radar indicates a fast-moving line of showers/storms will accompany the front:

Monday's Snow Impact Map: Provided by Meteorologist Steve McCauley

 The FIRE DANGER will be very high on Monday behind the front as wildfires, if ignited, would be very difficult to control given the dry air and gusty winds. Temperatures fall into the 30s area wide Monday night with some low-lying areas receiving a light freeze.

COLD BLAST UPDATE:

The American Model is not showing a major blast of cold affecting us here in Texas for the end of next week, however, the European Model is still forecasting well below normal temperatures for next weekend with the coldest of the air affecting areas just east of Texas. We will have to wait and see.

An Outlook for Everybody!

TGIF everybody! Abundant high clouds and northerly winds only allowed for a high of 60°F this afternoon at Camp Mabry compared to yesterday’s 79°F high temperature. Pesky southwesterly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere will continue to allow for high clouds to move across the area during the overnight hours, nevertheless, temperatures will drop into the 30s area wide with some spots staying in the lower 40s.

Look at the clouds over the UT Tower:

Check out all of the snow on the ground across the central and northern United States thanks to the big storm that dropped nearly 15 inches on snow on Wichita, KS earlier this week:

Weekend Forecast:

Mainly sunny and beautiful weather is on tap for Saturday with a high in the lower 70s. Mostly clear and chilly for Saturday night with temperatures dropping into the middle 40s. As surface low pressure deepens across the Texas Panhandle on Sunday and surface high pressure shifts off to the east of Texas, gusty south southwesterly winds at the surface and aloft will allow for temperatures to soar nearing 80°F for Sunday afternoon under a mostly sunny sky. The record high for Sunday is 87°F set back in 1917.

Highs climb well into the 70s on Sunday:

Sunday Night: As a low pressure system tracks north of central Texas on Sunday night it will force a strong cold front through the area late Sunday into the early morning hours of Monday. There is a 30% chance for showers and storms to develop along the front for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor. Anything that develops will be moving so quickly that it will not have time to produce significant rainfall accumulation, if any at all. Behind the front, winds will turn sharply out of the northwest and blow hard at 15-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph possible. Those strong northwesterly winds will persist through the day on Monday and only allow for highs to climb into the lower to middle 60s under a clear blue sky after waking up to temps in the 30s and 40s. Temps will fall back down into the 30s area wide Monday night. Quick return to southerly winds on Tuesday will allow for temps to rebound into the lower 70s ahead of another front that will blow through early Wednesday and take highs back down into the 60s.

GFS Pressure and Precipitation Map for Sunday Night: Notice how closely the black isobars are over Texas? That means very windy conditions!

NAM High Res Model showing windy front pushing in Sunday Night:

Cold Blast Possible Late Next Week:

Long range forecast models are indicating that MUCH COLDER air is on the way to Texas for the end of next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF Forecast Models are indicating this possibility. The ECMWF is forecasting a more potent cold blast than the GFS showing temperatures some 20 to 30 degrees below average next Saturday-Sunday. Highs may only make the 30s and 40s here in central Texas with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Gardeners beware! Of course this is still a week out, however, I just wanted to give you all a head’s up for the possibility for some significantly colder weather in the near future.

ECMWF Forecasted Temperatures (850mb or 5,000 feet aloft):

ECMWF Average Temperature Anomaly (How much below seasonal average we may be):

Forecast Set-Up: Big Ridge of high pressure to the west and a big area of low pressure to the east will allow for cold air to spill south into Texas!

Rain is on the way!

Good evening everybody! It sure did feel like spring today. We topped out at 83°F at both Camp Mabry and ABIA. That is some 17 degrees above normal for this time of year. We can thank a warm, west southwesterly surface wind for the warm weather. As air descends off of the mountains of northern Mexico, it is forced to compress and in turn heat up. Laredo climbed well into the 80s this afternoon, with a few spots hitting the 90°F mark in deep south Texas. Check out the warm temps across south Texas and northeastern Mexico. Orange shade represents temperatures in the 80s. 

Today's weather setup: Warm and dry southwesterly winds allowed for highs to climb into the 80s this afternoon.

Tonight, a cool front will blow through the region and turn winds out of the north, allowing for much cooler air to infiltrate the region by morning when we will wake up to temperatures in the 30s and 40s. We should be in the lower to middle 40s here in Austin tonight with highs climbing into the upper 60s to near 70°F for Tuesday afternoon under a mostly sunny sky.

As a the jet stream takes a dip south and an upper level storm system riding it approach us from the west, clouds will begin to increase from the west late in the day on Tuesday, signifying our change in weather. In fact, showers are possible overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning and through the day on Wednesday. There is a 60% chance for showers on Wednesday. That cold front that is blowing through the area tonight will move back north on Wednesday as a warm front and really kick up the winds out of the south southeast across the area. Those southerly winds off of the Gulf of Mexico will allow for muggy air to return to central Texas. Late Wednesday into early Thursday, a Pacific Front will sweep through the area from west to east. There is a 50% chance for showers and storms to develop along the front late Wednesday. Heaviest weather looks to stay north of central Texas, however, we will still have to watch out for the chance for an isolated strong or severe storm with hail and high winds being the biggest threats. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the northern half of central Texas, from San Marcos north, including the Austin Metro Area, under the SLIGHT RISK CATEGORY for severe weather.

Now, how much rain are we talking. The latest NAM model is forecasting around 0.25 inches of rainfall on average for central Texas with some areas looking to receive even less. However, the GFS Model is forecasting anywhere from 0.25 to as much as an inch of rainfall possible across central Texas, with highest totals falling east of the 35 corridor. Keep your fingers crossed that the GFS verifies because we can use every drop of water that we can get!

NAM Model Forecast Rainfall Accumulation:

GFS Model Forecast Rainfall Accumulation:

Behind the Pacific Front on Thursday, dry and warm westerly winds will kick in and allow for temperatures to climb into the 70s. Highs on Wednesday will only be in the 60s (which is normal for this time of year).

Latest seven day forecast:

Nice Weekend, Rain next week???

Good afternoon everybody. Northerly winds are blowing out there allowing for chilly Canadian Air to filter into the region. Temperatures are falling into the 50s area wide, with some spots across the Hill Country already down into the upper 40s. Heading for the 30s tonight with a light freeze possible in some spots, especially north and west of the Austin Metro Area. We will stay above freezing here in Austin.

Forecast lows tonight across the state:

Surface high pressure on Saturday means Sunny Skies! Yellow star is Austin!

Forecast highs across the state on Saturday:

Surface high pressure building into the area overnight will clear skies out and keep them sunny for Saturday allowing for temps to rebound into the lower 60s. As high pressure shifts east of the area Sunday and low pressure develops across the front range of the Rockies, a tight pressure gradient will set up and allow for a windy south southwesterly flow to take hold of the entire state. Those warm south southwesterly winds will push highs into the lower to middle 70s across the area on Sunday under a mostly sunny sky. Winds will be sustained 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph possible.

Another warm, windy, and more humid day is expected on Monday ahead of an approaching storm system and cold front from the west. That front will blow through the region and stall south of San Antonio by Tuesday morning. There is a slight chance for a brief shower or thundershower for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor on Monday afternoon/evening. However, the best chance for rain will be across east Texas.

Forecast Highs on Monday: Laredo will approach 90°F!

Rainfall Probabilities on Monday:

Quick southerly flow will return by Tuesday afternoon and send warmer, more humid air back into the area ahead of an approaching upper level storm system and a surface low pressure system which will bring us a chance for rain as early as Tuesday night. Rain chances will stick around on Wednesday, and be highest on Thursday as a Pacific Frontal Boundary pushes through the area. Some strong storms will be possible on Thursday of next week ahead of and along the frontal boundary. Long range models show a strong cap, or lid, will be in place across a good chunk of Texas early Thursday, however, as the low pressure system and and cold front approach the cap looks to weaken thanks to strong lifting. We will keep our fingers crossed. Right now, models show a line of storms developing from north Texas and extending back south into central Texas. Austin and points north have the best shot at seeing rain with areas south of Austin not expected to see much. Too early to say for sure, however, storms look more likely for north and northeast Texas.

Upper level low and trough approach from the west bringing us a decent shot at rain Wednesday and especially Thursday of next week:

Forecast CAP strength for early Thursday: Strong Cap (Lid) in place across a good chunk of Texas:

CAP looks to weakens as storm system and front approach from the west:

Forecast rainfall totals between now and next Saturday: We could see anywhere from 0.25 to 1 inch of rain across central Texas; highest totals look to fall along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor.

Long range models show a possible widespread rainfall event across the state by Sunday of next week associated with an upper level storm system and a strong cold front. Keep your fingers crossed!

Gotta Love Texas Weather

Good morning everybody! Trough (elongated) area of low pressure approaching Texas from the west has our winds at around 18,000 feet blowing out of the west southwest. Those west southwesterly winds aloft are carrying warm air over our cool air here at the surface. We call this weather setup overrunning. That pattern is giving us the sporadic, yet heavy, downpours across the area today. As the trough of low pressure approaches Texas this evening; we will continue to see about a 50% chance for showers and thunder showers here across central Texas through Tuesday morning.

An area of surface low pressure will develop over the Texas Panhandle and turn our winds out of the west southwest during the day tomorrow here in central Texas, that shift in wind direction will allow for drier and warmer weather to return for Tuesday afternoon. In fact, we may climb into the lower 70s across portions of the area tomorrow. Now this is where it gets interesting. While we are enjoying temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s across our area, the Texas Panhandle will likely be in the 20s and 30s with snow falling! Latest high resolution forecast models are indicating a good 2-6 inches of snow could fall across areas from Amarillo to as far east as Oklahoma City...Lubbock will not see quite as much, however, with less than 0.50 inches of snow.

Forecast Radar at 11 a.m. Tuesday Morning (Heavy snow falling across the Panhandle and western Oklahoma) 

Forecasted Snowfall Accumulation between now and Wednesday:

The Snow Pack will keep temperatures much colder than surrounding locations on Wednesday afternoon...temps around the area of snow will be in the 40s and 50s, however, where snow remains on the ground, highs will not get out of the 30s. Remember, sun's rays warm the earth, however, snow reflects solar rays, therefore, temperatures will not be able to climb over the snow pack. Pretty cool!

Gusty cold front arrives Friday night dropping temps into the 30s area wide by Saturday morning...highs struggle into the 50s on Saturday under a bright blue sky thanks to continued northerly breezes. Temps will fall into the 30s Saturday night with some areas receiving a freeze. Quick return to southerly winds on Sunday will take highs back into the 60s.

Severe Weather Possible this Weekend

Hello everybody. When it feels like spring in winter, spring-like thunderstorms are possible as well. Highs today will be climbing to near record levels thanks to a warm southwesterly wind aloft and at the surface. I'm forecasting a high of 80ºF for Austin and the record high for this date is 83ºF set back in 1999. 

As a large storm system (trough of low pressure) approaches the area from the west over the weekend, gusty southerly winds will develop out ahead of the system for Saturday. Those southerly winds will carry plentiful amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region. As a cold front approaches that moist air from the west, combined with lifting in the atmosphere from the trough of low pressure, thunderstorms will form across west Texas and move east into central and east Texas.

Forecasted position of trough of low pressure on Saturday: (I know it looks confusing, however, it is important to keep in mind it means that the atmosphere is taking a big dip south...high pressure is the opposite of low pressure...the jet stream takes a big shift north) Pink line represents the jet stream.

Forecasted position of the Dry Line on Saturday afternoon:

The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has already placed areas along and west of the I-35 corridor under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe thunderstorms. The main threats from the storms that develop would be strong winds, large hail, lightning, and heavy rain.

Late Saturday afternoon, storms will develop along the dry line in west Texas. The dry line is a boundary that separates the dry desert air of the southwestern United States from the warm, moist air that is generally in place across the rest of Texas and the southeast. Honestly, those storms that develop across west Texas will have the best chance of becoming severe with hail and high winds. As a cold front approaches from the west, the dry line and cold front will merge together and push east. As the cold front marches east, showers and storms will develop along the boundary and push through the region during the overnight hours of Saturday into Sunday. There is a 60% chance for storms late Saturday into early Sunday here in central Texas.

 

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like we are going to be seeing significant rainfall accumulation, however, some places may receive as much as 0.50 inches of rainfall. Heavier storms that develop will be capable of producing isolated 1-2 inch totals. 

Cooler air will filter into the area behind the system on Sunday. Another piece of upper level energy will cross the area on Monday/Tuesday of next week, which could bring us another shot at some showers. Stronger front blows in for the middle of next week with possibly colder conditions arriving for next weekend.

 

Rain is on the way! Severe Weather on Sunday?

Great news! We have a couple of rain-making systems on the way. The first of these will approach the area from the west southwest during the overnight hours and push through the region tomorrow. As that upper level disturbance passes over the area our rain chances will increase. Weather disturbances riding the westerly winds aloft will bring us our chance for showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.

Let's break down our chances for rain hour-by-hour using the latest high resolution NAM Model: Forecast for Wednesday, February 6, 2013

12:00 a.m. CST (Model is showing scattered showers approaching the area from the southwest)

3:00 a.m. CST (Scattered showers with a clap or two of thunder possible across the area)

11:00 a.m. CST (Scattered showers/thundershowers moving through the area)

6:00 p.m. CST (As the main disturbance moves through the area, a large batch of showers and thunderstorms is expected to develop and dump some heavy rain over areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor)

This particular model is forecasting the heaviest rains to fall across the coastal plains where they could see over 2 inches of rain! I think we will be lucky to see a 0.25 inches of rainfall across most areas.

*The rain will come in waves during the day on Wednesday with the heaviest rains developing by late afternoon/early evening as the main disturbance sweeps through the area*

Severe Weather Possible this Weekend:

I'm watching a large storm system northwest of Washington State right now that will be diving to the southeast over the coming days...this upper level storm system will bring us another shot at thunderstorms over the weekend, with the best chance for storms on Sunday. CAPE values (instability in the atmosphere) will be high across the area on Sunday, telling me that storms that develop will have a good chance of becoming strong or possibly severe with hail and damaging winds. Still a ways out, however, thought I would give you all a head's up.

Current location of the storm system:

Forecast CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) Values for Sunday:

Models show a Cold Front moving across the area from west to east on Sunday. I would expect a line of showers and thunderstorms (some strong to severe) to develop ahead of and along the cold front. This map is showing surface wind direction and moisture content in the air (Dark green=very humid air)