Severe Weather Possible this Weekend

Hello everybody. When it feels like spring in winter, spring-like thunderstorms are possible as well. Highs today will be climbing to near record levels thanks to a warm southwesterly wind aloft and at the surface. I'm forecasting a high of 80ºF for Austin and the record high for this date is 83ºF set back in 1999. 

As a large storm system (trough of low pressure) approaches the area from the west over the weekend, gusty southerly winds will develop out ahead of the system for Saturday. Those southerly winds will carry plentiful amounts of Gulf of Mexico moisture into the region. As a cold front approaches that moist air from the west, combined with lifting in the atmosphere from the trough of low pressure, thunderstorms will form across west Texas and move east into central and east Texas.

Forecasted position of trough of low pressure on Saturday: (I know it looks confusing, however, it is important to keep in mind it means that the atmosphere is taking a big dip south...high pressure is the opposite of low pressure...the jet stream takes a big shift north) Pink line represents the jet stream.

Forecasted position of the Dry Line on Saturday afternoon:

The Storm Prediction Center out of Norman, Oklahoma has already placed areas along and west of the I-35 corridor under the SLIGHT RISK category for severe thunderstorms. The main threats from the storms that develop would be strong winds, large hail, lightning, and heavy rain.

Late Saturday afternoon, storms will develop along the dry line in west Texas. The dry line is a boundary that separates the dry desert air of the southwestern United States from the warm, moist air that is generally in place across the rest of Texas and the southeast. Honestly, those storms that develop across west Texas will have the best chance of becoming severe with hail and high winds. As a cold front approaches from the west, the dry line and cold front will merge together and push east. As the cold front marches east, showers and storms will develop along the boundary and push through the region during the overnight hours of Saturday into Sunday. There is a 60% chance for storms late Saturday into early Sunday here in central Texas.

 

Unfortunately, it doesn't look like we are going to be seeing significant rainfall accumulation, however, some places may receive as much as 0.50 inches of rainfall. Heavier storms that develop will be capable of producing isolated 1-2 inch totals. 

Cooler air will filter into the area behind the system on Sunday. Another piece of upper level energy will cross the area on Monday/Tuesday of next week, which could bring us another shot at some showers. Stronger front blows in for the middle of next week with possibly colder conditions arriving for next weekend.