Nice Weekend, Rain next week???

Good afternoon everybody. Northerly winds are blowing out there allowing for chilly Canadian Air to filter into the region. Temperatures are falling into the 50s area wide, with some spots across the Hill Country already down into the upper 40s. Heading for the 30s tonight with a light freeze possible in some spots, especially north and west of the Austin Metro Area. We will stay above freezing here in Austin.

Forecast lows tonight across the state:

Surface high pressure on Saturday means Sunny Skies! Yellow star is Austin!

Forecast highs across the state on Saturday:

Surface high pressure building into the area overnight will clear skies out and keep them sunny for Saturday allowing for temps to rebound into the lower 60s. As high pressure shifts east of the area Sunday and low pressure develops across the front range of the Rockies, a tight pressure gradient will set up and allow for a windy south southwesterly flow to take hold of the entire state. Those warm south southwesterly winds will push highs into the lower to middle 70s across the area on Sunday under a mostly sunny sky. Winds will be sustained 10-20 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph possible.

Another warm, windy, and more humid day is expected on Monday ahead of an approaching storm system and cold front from the west. That front will blow through the region and stall south of San Antonio by Tuesday morning. There is a slight chance for a brief shower or thundershower for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor on Monday afternoon/evening. However, the best chance for rain will be across east Texas.

Forecast Highs on Monday: Laredo will approach 90°F!

Rainfall Probabilities on Monday:

Quick southerly flow will return by Tuesday afternoon and send warmer, more humid air back into the area ahead of an approaching upper level storm system and a surface low pressure system which will bring us a chance for rain as early as Tuesday night. Rain chances will stick around on Wednesday, and be highest on Thursday as a Pacific Frontal Boundary pushes through the area. Some strong storms will be possible on Thursday of next week ahead of and along the frontal boundary. Long range models show a strong cap, or lid, will be in place across a good chunk of Texas early Thursday, however, as the low pressure system and and cold front approach the cap looks to weaken thanks to strong lifting. We will keep our fingers crossed. Right now, models show a line of storms developing from north Texas and extending back south into central Texas. Austin and points north have the best shot at seeing rain with areas south of Austin not expected to see much. Too early to say for sure, however, storms look more likely for north and northeast Texas.

Upper level low and trough approach from the west bringing us a decent shot at rain Wednesday and especially Thursday of next week:

Forecast CAP strength for early Thursday: Strong Cap (Lid) in place across a good chunk of Texas:

CAP looks to weakens as storm system and front approach from the west:

Forecast rainfall totals between now and next Saturday: We could see anywhere from 0.25 to 1 inch of rain across central Texas; highest totals look to fall along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor.

Long range models show a possible widespread rainfall event across the state by Sunday of next week associated with an upper level storm system and a strong cold front. Keep your fingers crossed!