An Outlook for Everybody!

TGIF everybody! Abundant high clouds and northerly winds only allowed for a high of 60°F this afternoon at Camp Mabry compared to yesterday’s 79°F high temperature. Pesky southwesterly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere will continue to allow for high clouds to move across the area during the overnight hours, nevertheless, temperatures will drop into the 30s area wide with some spots staying in the lower 40s.

Look at the clouds over the UT Tower:

Check out all of the snow on the ground across the central and northern United States thanks to the big storm that dropped nearly 15 inches on snow on Wichita, KS earlier this week:

Weekend Forecast:

Mainly sunny and beautiful weather is on tap for Saturday with a high in the lower 70s. Mostly clear and chilly for Saturday night with temperatures dropping into the middle 40s. As surface low pressure deepens across the Texas Panhandle on Sunday and surface high pressure shifts off to the east of Texas, gusty south southwesterly winds at the surface and aloft will allow for temperatures to soar nearing 80°F for Sunday afternoon under a mostly sunny sky. The record high for Sunday is 87°F set back in 1917.

Highs climb well into the 70s on Sunday:

Sunday Night: As a low pressure system tracks north of central Texas on Sunday night it will force a strong cold front through the area late Sunday into the early morning hours of Monday. There is a 30% chance for showers and storms to develop along the front for areas along and east of the I-35 corridor. Anything that develops will be moving so quickly that it will not have time to produce significant rainfall accumulation, if any at all. Behind the front, winds will turn sharply out of the northwest and blow hard at 15-25 mph with gusts as high as 35 mph possible. Those strong northwesterly winds will persist through the day on Monday and only allow for highs to climb into the lower to middle 60s under a clear blue sky after waking up to temps in the 30s and 40s. Temps will fall back down into the 30s area wide Monday night. Quick return to southerly winds on Tuesday will allow for temps to rebound into the lower 70s ahead of another front that will blow through early Wednesday and take highs back down into the 60s.

GFS Pressure and Precipitation Map for Sunday Night: Notice how closely the black isobars are over Texas? That means very windy conditions!

NAM High Res Model showing windy front pushing in Sunday Night:

Cold Blast Possible Late Next Week:

Long range forecast models are indicating that MUCH COLDER air is on the way to Texas for the end of next week. Both the GFS and ECMWF Forecast Models are indicating this possibility. The ECMWF is forecasting a more potent cold blast than the GFS showing temperatures some 20 to 30 degrees below average next Saturday-Sunday. Highs may only make the 30s and 40s here in central Texas with lows in the upper 20s to lower 30s. Gardeners beware! Of course this is still a week out, however, I just wanted to give you all a head’s up for the possibility for some significantly colder weather in the near future.

ECMWF Forecasted Temperatures (850mb or 5,000 feet aloft):

ECMWF Average Temperature Anomaly (How much below seasonal average we may be):

Forecast Set-Up: Big Ridge of high pressure to the west and a big area of low pressure to the east will allow for cold air to spill south into Texas!