TWO COLD FRONTS ON THE WAY!!!

Good evening everybody. What a beautiful day it has been. We officially climbed to 73ºF here in Austin after waking up on the chilly side with temperatures in the lower 40s. Tonight, under a clear sky, temperatures will fall back down into the upper 30s to middle 40s depending on your location and elevation. Of course, low-lying areas will see the coldest temperatures. 

I have some very exciting news for all of you cold weather lovers. We have two cold fronts on the way. Front #1 will push into the area Wednesday night allowing for chilly Canadian air to blast into Texas. Front #2 looks to be a lot more potent. Keep in mind, this forecast is over seven days out, therefore, things are likely to change. The second front which would move into Texas on or the day after Christmas looks to have the potential to drop highs into the 30s for a couple of days with lows falling into the 10s and 20s across the area. In fact, the GFS Model is showing a wintry precipitation event possible. Moisture will run over the cold air in place at the surface...snow and freezing rain would be possible in this set up. Keep in mind, this is still a long ways out and the forecast WILL CHANGE. 

First things first, we have a couple of warm days ahead of us for Tuesday and Wednesday.

 Highs on Tuesday will climb well above average across the area. I'm expecting highs to top out in the upper 70s to near 80ºF on a breezy southerly surface wind. The image above is a look at the high resolution NAM temperature model for Tuesday. South Texas will climb well into the 80s. In fact, this same model puts south Texas in the upper 80s on Wednesday. Tuesday night, clouds will increase with drizzle possible by Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be warm and humid with spotty showers and drizzle around. Highs will be in the 70s.

Wednesday night/early Thursday morning a strong Canadian cold front will blast through Central Texas and drop temps from the 70s Wednesday afternoon into the 30s by Thursday morning with wind chills in the 20s. Highs on Thursday will struggle back into the 50s on a strong northerly wind blowing between 15-25 mph. As winds relax Thursday night, temperatures will fall into the upper 20s to lower 30s across the area. 

It will be very windy behind the front on Wednesday night and Thursday as isobars will be very close to each other indicating a very tight pressure gradient. The closer together the isobars, the windier it is. 

Now, to the very interesting weather pattern that could possibly be shaping up for next week. Last night the European model began indicating an Arctic Blast would be possible for the day after Christmas. Today, the American Model is indicating the exact same thing. This would be the strongest front we have seen all season. Long range models are indicating showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the Arctic front with (get ready, sit down) SNOW possible behind the front! Please keep in mind this is a long ways out and the forecast is likely to change. What I will continue to look for over the coming days is model consistency. If models continue to indicate an Arctic Air outbreak for next week, the more confident I will become in forecasting a cold blast and possible wintry precipitation event. Highs would fall into the 30s and 40s with overnight lows falling into the 10s and 20s! Brrr!


Let's look at both of the models together. First, let's begin with the GFS (American Model):

The image above is a look at precip behind the front. North and northwest Texas would see snow with a cold rain/sleet mix possible here in Central Texas.

Now, let's look at the European Model:

The ECMWF is forecasting well below average temps for the middle to end of next week. Check out that purple bullseye across east Texas and Louisiana. WOW!