RAIN IS ON THE WAY!

Good evening everybody. We officially topped out at 53ºF this afternoon in Austin at Camp Mabry and 51ºF out at the airport. Skies remained mostly cloudy all day thanks to upper level winds out of the west southwest ahead of our next storm system that will be bringing us a chance for widespread rainfall by as early as tomorrow night. Southwesterly winds aloft are carrying in plenty of Pacific Moisture across Mexico and into Texas. (Make sure to click on the images to make them bigger)

All computer models agree that we will see rainfall here in Central Texas, however, both the GFS and NAM Computer Models (American Forecast Models) put the highest rainfall totals across north and northeast Texas.

High resolution NAM Model: Forecasting 0.15-0.70 inches of rainfall across the area

GFS Model: Forecasting 0.20 to 0.50 inches of rainfall across the area

Behind this larger storm system, another disturbance will approach the area from the west for the middle of next week. This system will provide us with another chance for some much-needed rainfall across our drought-stricken state. In fact, the ECMWF Model (European Forecast Model) is forecasting over an inch of rainfall to fall between tomorrow and January 3, 2013 along the Interstate 35 corridor here in Central Texas, and get this, the model is projecting a widespread 1-3 inches of rainfall for eastern portions of Central Texas and for southeast Texas where the model is indicating the heaviest rainfall totals will be seen.

Day by Day Forecast:

500 mb wind and temperature map for noon Sunday (conditions at 18,000 feet aloft) large trough of low pressure easily indicated across Nevada (indicated by red L)...notice the ridges and troughs??? Pretty cool, huh?

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and cold in the morning with temperatures in the 20s and lower 30s area wide. Temperatures will warm into the 50s Sunday afternoon. Showers will approach the area from the southwest during the late afternoon and evening hours. Lows fall back down into the 40s Sunday night. Chance of rain is at 50%.

Forecasted Radar on Sunday at 4:00 p.m.

New Year's Eve: Mostly cloudy and wet with a high in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A shield (large area of rain) should move through the area during the morning hours (especially areas north of San Marcos)...heaviest rain will be across northern portions of Central Texas, extending all the way up into North Texas (including the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex). We will get a break in the activity for a good portion of the afternoon before a cold front approaches the area from the northwest during the evening. That front may kick off a line of showers or thunderstorms for areas along and east of the Interstate. Turning breezy and colder behind the front. Chance of rain is at 70% for Monday and 40% for Monday evening.

Forecasted Radar at 9 a.m. Monday morning:

Forecasted Radar at 9 p.m. Monday evening:

New Year's Day: Mostly cloudy, breezy, and chilly with temps in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Lows will drop into the 30s by the morning of the second. Rain should be well to the east and southeast of Central Texas.


Now, let's talk temperatures. Highs on Sunday are not likely to climb out of the 50s under mostly cloudy skies, we will wake up to temperatures in the 30s across the area, with some 20s possible. The clouds overhead will keep temperatures well above where they could have fallen tonight if the skies were clear. Temperatures will fall back down into the 40s on Sunday night...temps will warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Monday (New Year's Eve). A Canadian Cold Front will push through the area New Year's Eve (late evening) and drop temperatures into the 40s for New Year's Day morning. Highs to start the new year will be well below normal. Highs on New Year's Day wills struggle into the lower 50s. We will not get out of the 40s for Wednesday and Thursday of next week as another rain-making system approaches the area. It is going to be a chilly rain next Wednesday.