RAIN ON THE WAY

Good evening everybody. What a crazy weather day today has been. We started the day off clear and cold with lows in the 20s and 30s area wide. This afternoon, thanks to warm southerly winds, we climbed to 70ºF here in Austin at Camp Mabry and 69ºF at the airport. We saw a 40 to 50 degree spread in temperature today! We started the day well below average and finished the day above average. Gotta love Texas!

The clouds really filled in across the area this afternoon thanks to an approaching Pacific Storm System which is currently affecting the southwestern United States right now. That storm system will continue tracking east towards Texas before turning off to the northeast. As that system nears Central Texas, our rain chances will be going up. Unfortunately, most of the rain that develops looks to be rather light which would end up not giving us much in the way of decent accumulation, however, as a Pacific Frontal boundary moves across the region tomorrow night, there is a slightly better chance for a more drenching shower or thundershower. Forecast models are indicating less than a half of an inch of rainfall for the entire area; that would be great if we even saw that. Of course, if you are under a heavier downpour you may pick up over a 1/2 inch of rain.

When putting a forecast together, I look at several different computer models. This go round, all of the models are pretty much singing the same tune. Which leads me to believe that this is not going to be a big deal, and on average, most of us will receive much less than a half an inch of rainfall which is very bad news for our worsening drought conditions.

We have a 40-50% chance for rain on Friday with a 30% chance for rain on Saturday. I hope you get some rain at your house.

The WRF Model out of Texas Tech University:

The NAM WRF HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODEL:

GFS ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION:

The very latest drought monitor issued just this morning has placed all of Central Texas in the SEVERE drought category...nearly 95% of the state is experiencing drought conditions. Unfortunately, long range forecasts provided by the Climate Prediction Center indicate that the drought is likely to persist and worsen over the coming months. 

The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting much above average temperatures and much below normal rainfall conditions over the next 6-10 days. Our next big cool down and our next freeze looks to come around Christmas.