Super Tuesday Cool Front

Good Monday afternoon folks...

...Low-level Gulf of Mexico moisture has returned...
...SLIGHT chance for showers/thunderstorms late Tues. A.M. through early Tues. P.M....
...Breezy north winds possible Tuesday afternoon behind cool front...
...Slightly cooler and drier conditions expected Wednesday in the wake of Tuesday's cool front...

Forecast Discussion
Low-level Gulf moisture began streaming back into central Texas on Saturday on breezy southerly winds and is firmly in place as of Monday afternoon as evidenced by dew points in the lower 60s across the area. The widespread morning low clouds and patchy fog we have been contending with the past couple of mornings are a direct indicator that Gulf moisture has returned.

An upper air disturbance passing to our north and northeast on Tuesday will push a cool front through central and south central Texas during the late morning/early afternoon hours. As the front crosses the area there will be a slight chance for a shower or storm along and east of the I-35 corridor. Rain chances are around 10% for us here in Austin, 20% for areas east and southeast of the I-35 corridor. Keep in mind, there's a 90% chance you won't see rain on Tuesday.

Capping Inversion to Limit/Squash Widespread Rain/Storm Chances
Although the atmosphere will be unstable, a strong capping inversion, or temperature inversion will be present in the mid levels of the atmosphere. This capping inversion, a layer of warm, dry air aloft, will effectively limit, or cap, the rain probabilities across the area. With that being noted, if a storm or two are able to get going east of the I-35 corridor they have the potential to become strong with small hail and gusty winds.
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Forecast Breakdown

Rest of Today: Partly cloudy & warm with highs in the mid to upper 70s

Tonight: Increasing clouds & mild with lows in the 60s

Tuesday: Cloudy, mild start gives way to a partly sunny, warm midday in the 70s ahead of an approaching cool front...slight chance for a shower or storm along and east of I-35, breezy north winds and clearing skies can be expected Tuesday afternoon with temps in the 70s

Tuesday Night: Clear and cool with lows in the 40s

Wednesday: Sunny and beautiful with highs in the lower 70s, east southeast wind returns by afternoon
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Tuesday's Severe Weather Risk Areas (courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center)

Overnight

6 a.m. Tuesday through 6 a.m. Wednesday