...Fast-moving cold front arrives late tonight/early Tuesday morning...
...Today's Texas Hot Spots
...Laredo tied their record high of 93°F this afternoon set back in 1963...
...Del Rio tied their record high of 91°F this afternoon also set back in 1963...
...Camp Mabry topped out at 77°F today|A.B.I.A. topped out at 78°F today...We will be some 10 degrees cooler Tuesday afternoon
Cities to our southwest along the Texas-Mexico border tend to see the hottest temperatures with our current weather set-up...west-southwesterly winds blowing off of the mountains of northern Mexico is forced to descend rapidly in elevation...as the air descends the eastern slopes of the mountains it is forced to compress and heat up...that's why a west southwesterly wind across the area typically brings a warm up! You can clearly see the warmth along the border indicated by the orange and red shading.
...Cold Front's Position as of early Monday Evening along with temperatures and surface analysis...
(background temperature map courtesy of Intellicast)
...NO significant rain expected with the front tonight, however, a sprinkle or very light rain shower cannot be ruled out late tonight for areas east of the I-35 corridor...low clouds and areas of fog will be possible late tonight ahead of the front, but will quickly be swept away as the front moves through the area...
...High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR) showing the front east of I-35 midnight with only a few sprinkles along it|Best chance for storms will remain well to our north...
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Windy, Cooler Tuesday
...Sunny, WINDY, and cooler Tuesday with highs in the 60s...there may be a haze in the sky first thing Tuesday morning thanks to some west Texas dust being kicked up by this front...I think the dustiest conditions will be possible overnight immediately behind the front...
...Cool High Res Visible Satellite Loop from this afternoon showing the dust being kicked up in west Texas...
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Significantly Cooler Middle/End of the Week...Freezes Possible Wednesday/Thursday nights
...Secondary surge of colder air arrives late Tuesday dropping highs into the 50s for Wed/Thurs with overnight lows dipping into the 30s area wide Tuesday night, Wednesday night, Thursday night (freezes will be possible in out-lying and especially low-lying areas across central Texas...especially Wed/Thurs nights)...a light freeze is not out of the question for us here in Austin Wednesday night/Thursday morning...
_________________________________________________________________________________Fire Weather Watch issued for the Hill Country Tuesday Afternoon
-This watch includes ALL of the Hill Country counties west of Hays, Travis, and Williamson Counties
-Dry air and strong west northwesterly winds will make conditions ripe for quick-moving wildfires if a fire or two is able to get going
-OUTDOOR BURNING HIGHLY DISCOURAGED
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Record High Set Sunday at Camp Mabry
-Yesterday the temperature soared to a record-shattering 86°F at Camp Mabry...beating the previous 105 year old record high of 83°F set back in 1911
-The airport did not set a record yesterday at 80°F...their record high for January 31st is 82°F set back in 1971
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Weekend Rain?
Latest long range forecast model guidance indicating a potentially west Saturday across South Central Texas. Saturday has the potential to be a wet, raw day with highs only managing the 40s/50s...I'll continue to monitor that. Any rain that we can get at this point will be a welcome sight. It has been several weeks now since our last good rain.
Early rainfall estimates indicating we may receive upwards of 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain...we are going to need to monitor moisture levels closely because the atmosphere will still be quite dry across the area for a significant rain...time will tell.
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