A potent and dynamic upper level Pacific storm system digging south along the west coast of the United States will continue to track off to the south and east into northern Mexico and SLOWLY across the state of Texas through the end of the work week.
Dynamic upper level lift ahead of this approaching system coupled with strong upper level winds and plentiful amounts of rich Gulf moisture will lead to increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Storms that develop today, tonight, Tuesday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday will have the potential to become severe producing large hail, damaging winds, and isolated tornadoes.
Remember, a thunderstorm is considered to be severe if it is producing hail of 1" in diameter or greater, and/or thunderstorm (convective) wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, and/or a tornado (visually confirmed or radar indicated). Storms that produce severe weather are known as super cells. Super cells are different from general thunderstorms because they last for a much longer period of time and can produce severe weather (hail, high winds, tornadoes) for a long period of time.
As of right now, the greatest and most widespread risk of severe weather for central and south central Texas looks to come late Tuesday evening through midday Wednesday morning, however, there is a risk for severe weather today (Monday), tonight, and early Tuesday morning.
Today/Tonight's Severe Risk Area
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed a large area of Oklahoma and Texas (including central Texas) under the "SLIGHT" risk category for severe weather today/tonight. Areas within the yellow shaded area have a 15% chance within 25 miles of any chosen point in the slight risk area of receiving severe weather.
Tuesday/Tuesday Night's Severe Risk Area
Severe weather chances increase across central/south central Texas. The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded our region into the "ENHANCED" risk category (orange shaded area) for severe weather...meaning there is a 30% chance within 25 miles of any chosen point in the orange shaded area of receiving severe weather. All areas surrounding the enhanced risk area are under the slight risk category for severe weather.
The maps above are available for your viewing pleasure anytime on the Storm Prediction Center's website...click HERE to access it.
Flooding Risk
In addition to the risk of potential severe weather over the coming days, heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding across the region...this is something that will need to be monitored closely. A great way to track and monitor which low-water crossings are open/closed is using the ATXfloods website. Click HERE to access it. Remember, if you come across a flooded roadway, TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
Forecast Rainfall Accumulation
On average we are looking to receive 1-3 inches of rain with this storm system, however, some locations may end up receiving upwards of 4-5 inches (especially along and east of the IH-35 corridor)...map below is a look at forecast rainfall accumulation across the lower 48 through Saturday courtesy of the Weather Prediction Center
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