A large and potent upper level storm system, currently centered over southern California will continue to push southeast into northern Mexico and west Texas over the coming days. Upper level divergence ahead of this system will work to enhance surface low pressure over eastern New Mexico and southern Colorado. That drop in surface pressure will allow surface winds to turn south-southeasterly here across central Texas. That shift in wind will allow low-level Gulf of Mexico moisture to return to the area. We should really begin to notice an increase in humidity by Wednesday. At the same time, Pacific moisture will be flowing across the area in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. That Pacific moisture is in turn already in place right now as evidenced by the mid/upper level cloudiness around the area today and the spotty sprinkles and light rain showers.
Current Position of the Upper Level Storm System (as of Monday afternoon)
Latest forecast models show this storm system approaching the area during the day on Wednesday and sticking around through the first half of the upcoming weekend before the system is forecast to retrograde, or move back, to the west allowing higher pressure to build into the area and effectively put an end to rain chances. At the same time this upper level storm approaches the area, a surface cold front will be moving into the state of Texas. Upper level lift from the storm system and dynamic surface lift along the front will help to generate several opportunities for showers and thunderstorms across the area beginning Thursday and ending Saturday. The National Weather Service has highlighted the possibility of some locally heavy rainfall across the area, especially late Thursday into Friday as the surface cold front and most favorable atmospheric conditions come into play.
As of right now, it appears that the best chance for heavy rains will occur west of the Interstate 35 corridor and potentially even west of the eastern Hill Country/Highway 281 corridor that runs through Burnet and Blanco counties here in south central Texas. Latest forecast model rainfall accumulations are indicating there is the potential for 1-3 inches of rain to fall across the Hill Country with lesser amounts along and especially east of the Interstate 35 corridor. This is of course something I will continue to monitor over the coming days. The GFS, or American Forecast Model, one of the more reliable computer models I look at on a daily basis, is indicating that the heaviest rains will manage to stay west of the Austin Metro Area, obviously, that is something I will continue to monitor.
Latest Runs of the GFS Forecast Model are keeping the majority of the heaviest rainfall accumulation west of the Interstate 35 corridor:
It is great to see rain in the forecast because the majority of south central Texas, and the state of Texas for that matter, has slipped back into moderate, severe, and in some areas extreme drought conditions. The United States Drought Monitor is estimating that over 13 million people are dealing with abnormally dry/drought conditions across the state of Texas. Obviously, any rain that we can get is going to be a blessing. Below is the latest drought monitor for the state of Texas. Areas shaded in orange = severe drought, areas shaded in red = extreme drought, which is the second to worst drought category possible.
Latest Drought Monitor for Texas (issued last Thursday) and always available for you at this link: http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/
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