Forecast Discussion:
Good
Wednesday afternoon. Hope you are all doing well.
A
gusty, dry cool front has now passed through all of south central Texas as of 1
p.m. CDT and is now making its way south and east towards the Texas coast and
eventually into the Gulf of Mexico. With little to no moisture out ahead of
this front and essentially stable atmospheric conditions, this front came
through the area without any precipitation. Breezy and slightly cooler this
afternoon with highs very near, if not slightly above the 80°F mark. Mostly
clear and cool overnight tonight with lows dipping into the 50s, a few areas of
high clouds may drift across the region from time to time.
Friday Severe Weather Threat:
As
a dynamic upper level Pacific storm system approaches the area late tomorrow
into Friday, surface pressure will begin to drop here across south central
Texas and help to pull the cool front that moved through here today back north
as a warm front late Thursday into Friday. That returning southerly wind will
help to increase Gulf of Mexico moisture across the area effectively recharging
our atmosphere for the approaching storm system. I’ll be watching Friday
afternoon into early Saturday morning for some potentially stronger, possibly
severe, thunderstorms. Regardless of the severe weather threat, forecast model
guidance is currently indicating an additional 1-3 inches of rain is possible
across the area with some isolated locations receiving upwards of 4 inches of
rain. As it looks right now, Halloween afternoon/evening should be dry here
across central Texas as the bulk of the storm system should be located to our
east at that time, allowing cooler, drier continental air to move into the area
that will set us up for a beautiful Sunday across the area with highs in the
70s and lows in the 50s!
The Storm Prediction Center,
abbreviated SPC, has placed all of south central Texas including the Austin and
San Antonio Metro areas under a MARGINAL RISK for severe storms on Friday. Keep
in mind this is a relatively low risk, however, the potential is there for
these storms to produce some strong, gusty winds of 58 mph or greater and
potentially a tornado or two. In addition to those threats, heavy rainfall and
deadly cloud to ground lightning will accompany all storms.
Area
shaded in dark green below is under a MARGINAL RISK for severe weather on
Friday:
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