Friday Evening Weather Update

Forecast Discussion

TGIF Everybody. It is shaping up to be a beautiful weekend across south central Texas. A weak cool front pushed through the area during the late morning/early afternoon hours…cooler and drier air will continue to move into the area from the northeast into the overnight hours and set us up for a nice fall weekend. I’m expecting highs in the 80s this weekend across the area, with overnight lows generally in the 50s to lower 60s depending on location and elevation. Low-lying, out-lying areas will experience the coolest overnight lows with metro areas, such as downtown Austin, staying closer to 60°F. A few of the lowest-lying rural locations may dip into the 40s.Skies should remain mostly sunny/mostly clear through the weekend and into early next week, however, some thin high clouds will be possible from time to time.

According to the latest forecast models, things look to become interesting as a major shift in this summer-like weather pattern (fingers crossed) is going to occur. An upper level low pressure system approaching the area from the desert southwest will help to pull Gulf of Mexico moisture into the area beginning early next week and continuing through the remainder of the week. This will help to moisten our atmosphere...with lift and moisture over the area the chance for rain looks to return to the area. Now what’s really interesting is that both of the two reliable forecast models I look at on a daily basis have persistently been indicating now, for the past several days, that an area of low pressure is going to form across the southern Gulf of Mexico in the Bay of Campeche…according to models, this area of low pressure will have the potential to develop into a late season tropical storm…in case you’re wondering, this potential storm would be given the name Kate.

The American forecast model wants to pull this tropical system up into south Texas and move it north along the IH-35 corridor, this scenario would bring lots of heavy rain, possible flooding, and strong gusty winds to the area…the European forecast model wants to keep this tropical system away from Texas and bring it onshore near Lafayette, Louisiana. That scenario would place Texas in an unfavorable position to receive much needed drought relief.

Obviously, this is still a long way’s out and will require constant watching over the next several days and into next week. Forecast models do not handle tropical systems well, as depending on the size of the system, can greatly impact the wind flow across adjacent areas, in turn greatly affecting who is going to receive beneficial, if not, overly beneficial rains late next week into next weekend. Just wanted to give you all a head’s up about what could potentially become a big weather story next week. A long overdue cool down would be possible behind this potential tropical system.

Hope you all have a wonderful weekend. Get out and enjoy the nice weather, but please keep in mind that the fire danger remains extremely high across the area and is likely to stay that way until we can get a good rainfall around here.