Forecast Discussion:
Heavy rainfall is likely across south central Texas
beginning Thursday. Several ingredients are coming together to give us the
potential for a significant rainfall event. Forecast rainfall accumulations of 3-6
inches likely across a large portion of central Texas with pockets of 8-10
inches of rain possible. Below is the latest statement on this weather event
from the National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio Forecast Office:
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
431 AM CDT
WED OCT 21 2015
...RAINFALL LIKELY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...
...PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING POSSIBLE...
RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE
LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
SOME SPOTS.
THE
BEST CHANCES FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR THURSDAY
INTO
FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
MOST LIKELY AREAS TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND ANYWHERE ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING. IN
ADDITION...THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING COULD
LEAD
TO DISRUPTIONS OF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD REACH
3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND ANYWHERE ALONG
AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. POCKETS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES
COULD
OCCUR IN ISOLATED SPOTS ACROSS THIS REGION. FARTHER WEST...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AND RIO GRANDE.
ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ARE
URGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR
FORECASTS AS DETAILS ON THIS POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT BECOME
MORE CLEAR.
Weather Setup:
A deep trough of
low pressure currently located over the desert southwest is helping to pump
plentiful amounts of Gulf and Pacific moisture into the state of Texas.
Tropical Storm Patricia, currently located south of Mexico in the eastern
Pacific is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tomorrow afternoon. The
approaching low will help to pull moisture from Patricia over Mexico and into
Texas at the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. At the same time,
copious amounts of deep tropical Gulf/Caribbean moisture will be streaming into
the area at the lower levels.
The National Weather Service has nicknamed this set-up
the “Squeeze Play”…make sure to check out their very informative graphic for a
better understanding of the synopsis above.
The upper level
lift provided by the approaching upper air storm system and an approaching
surface frontal boundary will work to wring out all of that moisture over
Texas. As the low passes to our east Sunday and higher pressure begins to build
in rain chances will taper off followed by some drier and cooler conditions.
Flash Flood Risk:
The NWS has
placed all of south central Texas in a moderate to high risk area for potential
flash flooding.
Remember, if you come across a flooded roadway, TURN AROUND,
DON’T DROWN…I CANNOT STRESS THIS ENOUGH…NOT ONLY ARE YOU PUTTING YOUR LIFE IN
DANGER BY CROSSING A FLOODED ROADWAY, BUT YOU ARE PUTTING FIRST RESPONDERS’
LIVES IN DANGER TOO.
IN ADDITION TO
THE RISK OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING, DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ALL OF THE STORMS THAT DEVELOP…REMEMBER, WHEN THUNDER
ROARS, GO INDOORS!!
FORECAST ACCUMULATED RAINFALL FROM THE WEATHER SERVICE (Wednesday
through Sunday):
FORECAST ACCUMULATED RAINFALL from the Weather Prediction
Center between now and Monday:
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