The big story in the weather over the coming days is a chance for snow across far west Texas and west Texas (including far western portions of the Hill Country here in Central Texas).
So, what's going to be giving Texas its chance for snow? It's actually an upper level storm system now located in southern California that will be pushing east towards Texas...as that storm system approaches, so does lift in the atmosphere (rising air)...without rising air, precipitation cannot form. Cold air is in place across the Lone Star State, therefore, when you mix cold air and moisture together we get some form of wintry precipitation.
This is a look at the current location of the storm system heading our way:
So, who's going to see the snow and how much are they going to see. The Big Bend Area and far west Texas are likely to receive quite a bit of snow between Thursday afternoon and Friday afternoon. Of course, heaviest totals will be in the higher mountain ranges of the Big Bend Area...all three of the models I look at, the GFS, ECMWF, and the NAM are all indicating the possibility of wintry precipitation across the far western Hill Country, with some accumulation possible. Honestly, this is NOT going to be a major winter storm for Central Texas...I would be surprised to see more than some sleet pellets or a possible flurry across the Interstate 35 corridor. Let's take a look at the different models.
NAM Hi-Resolution Model:
1 p.m. Thursday Simulated Radar Reflectivity (model is indicating quite a bit of heavy snow across far west Texas and northern Mexico) Snow is represented by the blue, white, and reds on the map...green with yellow and red mixed in represents rain)...the model is indicating some light rain/drizzle is possible across central Texas, however, the better rain chances will arrive later Thursday evening into Friday morning.
9 p.m. Thursday evening (snow is still falling across far west Texas):
3 a.m. Friday morning (precipitation is approaching central Texas) rain likely for much of the nortwestern Hill Country with a transition line to sleet and snow just outside of the central Texas...temperatures will be above freezing across a good portion of Central Texas.
9 a.m. Friday (model is indicating a pocket of left over snow and sleet hanging on across the far western Hill Country, west of Fredericksburg) with not more than some drizzle across most of Central Texas.
NAM Total Snowfall Accumulation: (narrow streak of less than a half an inch of snow possible across the far western Hill Country into possibly McCullock, San Saba, and Lampasas Counties...check out the heavier snow accumulation across far west Texas where anywhere between 2 to as much as 5 inches could fall in the lower elevations with as much as 10 inches falling across the higher peaks of far west Texas)
NAM Temperature Forecast (6:00 a.m. Friday) The model is forecasting temps above freezing across areas along and east of the Interstate with lower to middle 30s across the Hill Country, you may see some snow and sleet across the Hill Country, however, I do not believe it is going to cause any major travel delays...temperatures will be very important, if temperatures fall below freezing, than a few areas may become icy across the far western Hill Country for a brief window of time Friday morning...NO TRAVEL DELAYS expected for much of Central Texas Friday morning, including the Austin and San Antonio metro areas, where we will be safely above freezing.
GFS Model is a bit more aggressive in bringing more snowfall accumulation across a wider area in Central Texas (honestly, I think this model is being a little too optimistic).
The ECMWF model is showing what I believe to be the best look at the actual snowfall accumulation we are going to see. The models puts about an inch of snowfall accumulation across the far western Hill Country (southwest of Mason and Gillespie Counties) with the heavies totals remaining across the Big Bend Area (2-7 inches)
***THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A BIG DEAL FOR MOST OF CENTRAL TEXAS, HOWEVER, THE HILL COUNTRY NEEDS TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST...IF TEMPERATURES DROP TO OR BELOW FREEZING, THINGS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE INTERESTING***
Now let's jump ahead to next week! Models are forecasting a major Pacific storm system to move across the state of Texas during the middle of next week. This approaching storm looks (as of right now) to bring us a much needed widespread heavy rainfall event...this storm system will be warm in nature, therefore, snow or frozen precip. should not be an issue, however, thunderstorms (some on the strong side) will be possible for the middle of next week. Behind the storm system some colder air looks to push into Texas...too soon to say just how cold, however, some models are indicating a significant drop in temperatures in about two weeks time.
Here's a look at accumulated precipitation between now and January 10 (the GFS model is indicating a widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall across Central Texas...keep in mind, this is still a week away and the forecast is likely to change).
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