Just What the Doctor Ordered, Minus the Severe Threat

Good evening everybody! Great news! Looks like some much-needed beneficial rainfall is on the way to Texas for early next week (Monday Night through Wednesday Morning). I just finished looking through all of the latest computer models and things are beginning to look very good for some much needed temporary drought relief. 

A very strong upper level storm system (more spring-like than winter-like) will approach Texas from the west out of northern Mexico by Monday of next week. Ahead of this system, winds will be quite breezy out of the south southeast...those southerly winds will help to pull plenty of deep Gulf of Mexico moisture over the area...therefore, I expect widespread shower activity to develop across Central Texas late Monday evening. Forecast models are indicating that dew points will surge into the 50s and 60s across the area (remember, the higher the dew point, the more moist the air is). Therefore, it will be plenty moist out there to support heavy rainfall and thunderstorms. Some of those storms may become strong to severe. Something I look at to determine where thunderstorms will develop and how strong they will become is CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy)...This value represents the total amount of potential energy available to a parcel of air originating at the surface and being lifted to its level of free convection. Basically, this represents where the most unstable air will be located. Remember, you need three key ingredients for thunderstorms to develop; moisture, lift, and instability (warm air at the surface rising into colder air aloft).

Current location of our storm system using water vapor imagery (approaching California):

GFS forecast position of storm system on Wednesday at 6 AM:

ECMWF forecast position of storm system on Wednesday at 6 AM (the GFS is a bit faster):

Forecasted dew point temperatures across the area on Tuesday at 3:00 PM: (Dew points will be in the 50s and 60s)

Forecast Instability across Texas on Tuesday: (Areas south and east of Austin will have the higher instability, therefore, areas along and east of the Interstate 35 corridor will have the best shot at seeing possible severe weather (gusty winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes).

The GFS Model is forecasting a widespread 1-3 inch rainfall event across the area:

The ECMWF Model is forecasting a 1-5 inch rainfall event possible (areas along and east of the Interstate will see the heaviest amounts):

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) is forecasting a 1-3 inch rainfall event across a good chunk of Texas with 4+ inch totals possible across east Texas:

This is a look at our local National Weather Service forecast rainfall totals (I agree with these forecast rainfall totals. Areas along and east of the Interstate 2-4 inches with areas west of the Interstate 1-3 inches of rainfall possible.

For all of you cold weather lovers (including myself) it is beginning to look like we are in for an extended cold blast which will begin next Sunday, keep your fingers crossed. Looks like Arctic air will be making a trip south to cover much of the country for the week after next.